Time stress,predation risk and diurnal–nocturnal foraging trade-offs in larval prey

Insect larvae increase in size with several orders of magnitude throughout development making them more conspicuous to visually hunting predators. This change in predation pressure is likely to impose selection on larval anti-predator behaviour and since the risk of detection is likely to decrease in darkness, the night may offer safer foraging opportunities to large individuals. However, forsaking day foraging reduces development rate and could be extra costly if prey are subjected to seasonal time stress. Here we test if size-dependent risk and time constraints on feeding affect the foraging–predation risk trade-off expressed by the use of the diurnal–nocturnal period. We exposed larvae of one seasonal and one non-seasonal butterfly to different levels of seasonal time stress and time for diurnal–nocturnal feeding by rearing them in two photoperiods. In both species, diurnal foraging ceased at large sizes while nocturnal foraging remained constant or increased, thus larvae showed ontogenetic shifts in behaviour. Short night lengths forced small individuals to take higher risks and forage more during daytime, postponing the shift to strict night foraging to later on in development. In the non-seasonal species, seasonal time stress had a small effect on development and the diurnal–nocturnal foraging mode. In contrast, in the seasonal species, time for pupation and the timing of the foraging shift were strongly affected. We argue that a large part of the observed variation in larval diurnal–nocturnal activity and resulting growth rates is explained by changes in the cost/benefit ratio of foraging mediated by size-dependent predation and time stress.     

Voice as Entry to Agriculturalists’ Conservationist Identity: A Cultural Inventory of the Yellowstone River

We explored the communicative construction of a conservationist identity among primary producers by excavating voices of agriculturalists operating along the Yellowstone River (Montana, USA). We used a cultural inventory approach to discover and then listen to informants’ voices as they constructed their conservation identity. Those who self-identified as conservationists talked about their ecological and social responsibilities, and described challenges they faced in protecting individual resources and system processes of the watershed. For these agriculturalists, conservation and production are inextricably linked, and enable them to provide a sustainable resource base for future generations. Insight from these voices enhances understanding of what sustainability could mean to those who self-identify as both conservationists and primary producers.     

Tailor-made scenario planning for local adaptation to climate change

This paper presents a tailor-made scenario approach for climate change adaptation planning, which emphasises involvement of stakeholders in the development of socioeconomic scenarios and relates to the planning situation and interest of the planning entity. The method was developed and tested in case studies in three different sectors in Sweden (the health sector, the tourism sector and water resource management). The result of the case studies is that the tailor-made scenario approach facilitated the engagement of the local planning body in climate change adaptation and helped them to analyse consequences and possible solutions in a structured way. However, the scenarios that emerged mainly focused on socioeconomic drivers on which the planning body had a large impact or drivers that can be influenced through cooperation with other actors at the local or regional level. While this result underlines the need for local stakeholder involvement in scenario processes, it also indicates a local bias that could be remedied by a stronger representation of national and global perspectives in the scenario development process. Finally, we discuss how a “bottom-up” approach could be combined with a “consistency” approach, which points towards a possible way forward to a hybrid methodology that is compatible with the scenario framework currently being developed in connection to the fifth assessment report of the IPCC.     

Modeling the Potential Impacts of Climate Change on Pacific Salmon Culture Programs: An Example at Winthrop National Fish Hatchery

Hatcheries have long been used in an attempt to mitigate for declines in wild stocks of Pacific salmon (Oncorhynchus spp.), though the conservation benefit of hatcheries is a topic of ongoing debate. Irrespective of conservation benefits, a fundamental question is whether hatcheries will be able to function as they have in the past given anticipated future climate conditions. To begin to answer this question, we developed a deterministic modeling framework to evaluate how climate change may affect hatcheries that rear Pacific salmon. The framework considers the physiological tolerances for each species, incorporates a temperature-driven growth model, and uses two metrics commonly monitored by hatchery managers to determine the impacts of changes in water temperature and availability on hatchery rearing conditions. As a case study, we applied the model to the US Fish and Wildlife Service’s Winthrop National Fish Hatchery. We projected that hatchery environmental conditions remained within the general physiological tolerances for Chinook salmon in the 2040s (assuming A1B greenhouse gas emissions scenario), but that warmer water temperatures in summer accelerated juvenile salmon growth. Increased growth during summer coincided with periods when water availability should also be lower, thus increasing the likelihood of physiological stress in juvenile salmon. The identification of these climate sensitivities led to a consideration of potential mitigation strategies such as chilling water, altering rations, or modifying rearing cycles. The framework can be refined with new information, but in its present form, it provides a consistent, repeatable method to assess the vulnerability of hatcheries to predicted climate change.     

Monitoring Fish Contaminant Responses to Abatement Actions: Factors that Affect Recovery

Monitoring of contaminant accumulation in fish has been conducted in East Fork Poplar Creek (EFPC) in Oak Ridge, Tennessee since 1985. Bioaccumulation trends are examined over a twenty year period coinciding with major pollution abatement actions by a Department of Energy facility at the stream’s headwaters. Although EFPC is enriched in many contaminants relative to other local streams, only polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) and mercury (Hg) were found to accumulate in the edible portions of fish to levels of human health concern. Mercury concentrations in redbreast sunfish were found to vary with season of collection, sex and size of individual fish. Over the course of the monitoring, waterborne Hg concentrations were reduced >80%; however, this did not translate into a comparable decrease in Hg bioaccumulation at most sites. Mercury bioaccumulation in fish did respond to decreased inputs in the industrialized headwater reach, but paradoxically increased in the lowermost reach of EFPC. As a result, the downstream pattern of Hg concentration in fish changed from one resembling dilution of a headwater point source in the 1980s to a uniform distribution in the 2000s. The reason for this remains unknown, but is hypothesized to involve changes in the chemical form and reactivity of waterborne Hg associated with the removal of residual chlorine and the addition of suspended particulates to the streamflow. PCB concentrations in fish varied greatly from year-to-year, but always exhibited a pronounced downstream decrease, and appeared to respond to management practices that limited episodic inputs from legacy sources within the facility.     

Worst case scenario study to assess the environmental impact of amine emissions from a CO2 capture plant

Use of amines is one of the leading technologies for post-combustion carbon dioxide capture from gas and coal-fired power plants. This study assesses the potential environmental impact of emissions to air that result from use of monoethanol amine (MEA) as an absorption solvent for the capture of carbon dioxide (CO₂). Depending on operation conditions and installed reduction technology, emissions of MEA to the air due to solvent volatility losses are expected to be in the range of 0.01–0.8 kg/tonne CO₂ captured. Literature data for human and environmental toxicity, together with atmospheric dispersion model calculations, were used to derive maximum tolerable emissions of amines from CO₂ capture. To reflect operating conditions with typical and with elevated emissions, we defined a scenario MEA-LOW, with emissions of 40 t/year MEA and 5 t/year diethyl amine (DEYA), and a scenario MEA-HIGH, with emissions of 80 t/year MEA and 15 t/year DEYA. Maximum MEA deposition fluxes would exceed toxicity limits for aquatic organisms by about a factor of 3–7 depending on the scenario. Due to the formation of nitrosamines and nitramines, the estimated emissions of DEYA are close to or exceed safety limits for drinking water and aquatic ecosystems. The “worst case” scenario approach to determine maximum tolerable emissions of MEA and other amines is in particular useful when both expected environmental loads and the toxic effects are associated with high uncertainties.     

An ecological model of the habitat mosaic in estuarine nursery areas: Part I—Interaction of dispersal theory and habitat variability in describing juvenile fish distributions

Identification of critical habitat in estuarine nursery areas is an important conservation and management objective. Habitat can be viewed as a mosaic of both temporally variable environmental features and spatially variable structural features that combine to define optimal habitat. Effective models of juvenile distributions should account for individual movement, as well as the full suite of habitat variability including both spatial and temporal components. We have extended a terrestrial model of small-scale movement patterns to describe habitat choices of an index juvenile fish in an estuarine nursery system. Movement of small juvenile fishes was found to be influenced by both spatial and temporal patterns in habitat quality, and it was a balanced mix of both that resulted in an optimal distribution. Fishes that perceive habitat on a scale much smaller than the scale of spatial heterogeneity may respond to temporal change as a movement cue allowing for more deterministic outcomes at larger scales despite perceptual limitations. These model outcomes suggest a hierarchical approach is best for describing habitat choice in juvenile fishes and this approach will be used in the future to explore individual and population responses to predictable habitat change.     

A simple plankton model for the Oregon upwelling ecosystem: Sensitivity and validation against time-series ocean data

Simple plankton models serve as useful platforms for testing our understanding of the mechanisms underlying ecosystem dynamics. A simple, one-dimensional plankton model was developed to describe the dynamics of nitrate, ammonium, two phytoplankton size-classes, meso-zooplankton, and detritus in the Oregon upwelling ecosystem. Computational simplicity was maintained by linking the biological model to a one-dimensional, cross-shelf physical model driven by the daily coastal upwelling index. The model sacrificed resolution of regional-scale and along-shore (north to south) processes and assumed that seasonal productivity is primarily driven by local cross-shelf Ekman transport of surface waters and upwelling of nutrient-rich water from depth.Our goals were to see how well a simple plankton model could capture the general temporal and spatial dynamics of the system, test system sensitivity to alternate parameter set values, and observe system response to the effective scale of potential retention mechanisms. Model performance across the central Oregon shelf was evaluated against two years (2000-2001) of chlorophyll and copepod time-series observations. While the modeled meso-zooplankton biomass was close in scale to the observed copepod biomass, phytoplankton was overestimated relative to that inferred from the observed surface chlorophyll concentration. Inshore, the system was most sensitive to the nutrient uptake kinetics of diatom-size phytoplankton and to the functional grazing response of meso-zooplankton. Meso-zooplankton was more sensitive to alternate parameter values than was phytoplankton. Reduction of meso-zooplankton cross-shelf advection rates (crudely representing behavioral retention mechanisms) reduced the scale of model error relative to the observed seasonal mean inshore copepod biomass but had little effect of the modeled meso-zooplankton biomass offshore nor upon phytoplankton biomass across the entire shelf.     

One century of hydrological monitoring in two small catchments with different forest coverage

Long-term data on precipitation and runoff are essential to draw firm conclusions about the behavior and trends of hydrological catchments that may be influenced by land use and climate change. Here the longest continuous runoff records from small catchments (<1 km(2)) in Switzerland (and possibly worldwide) are reported. The history of the hydrological monitoring in the Sperbel- and Rappengraben (Emmental) is summarized, and inherent uncertainties in the data arising from the operation of the gauges are described. The runoff stations operated safely for more than 90% of the summer months when most of the major flood events occurred. Nevertheless, the absolute values of peak runoff during the largest flood events are subject to considerable uncertainty. The observed differences in average, base, and peak runoff can only partly be attributed to the substantial differences in forest coverage. This treasure trove of data can be used in various ways, exemplified here with an analysis of the generalized extreme value distributions of the two catchments. These distributions, and hence flood return periods, have varied greatly in the course of one century, influenced by the occurrence of single extreme events. The data will be made publicly available for the further analysis of the mechanisms governing the runoff behavior of small catchments, as well as for testing stochastic and deterministic models.