An evaluation of adaptation options for climate change impacts on agriculture in Kazakhstan

Agriculture in Kazakhstan is sensitive to climate, and wheat yields could be reduced up to 70% under climate change. With the transition from a socialist economy to a free market economy, decisions are being made now that will affect Kazakhstan's ability to cope with climate change. A team of Kazakh and American researchers examined the cost-effectiveness and barriers to implementations of adaptation options for climate change. Twelve adaptation options that increase flexibility to respond to climate change were identified using a screening matrix. Four options, forecasting pest outbreaks, developing regional centers for preserving genetic diversity of seeds, supporting a transition to a free market, and reducing soil erosion through the use of changed farming practices, were examined. The Adaptation Decision Matrix (ADM) was then applied to estimate benefits using expert judgment (using an arbitrary numerical scale, not monetary values) and benefits estimates were compared to costs to determine cost-effectiveness. The ADM uses subjective measures of how well adaptation options meet policy objectives. Controlling soil erosion was estimated to have the highest benefits, but the high costs of implementation appears to make it relatively cost-ineffective. Supporting a transition to a free market was ranked as the most cost-effective measure, with regional centers second. However, use of different scales to quantify benefits or different weights can result in regional centers being more cost-effective than the transition to a free market. Regional centers was also judged to have fewer barriers to implementation than a transition to a free market. These results will be incorporated in Kazakhstan's National Action Plan. The ADM and other tools are relatively easy to apply, but are quite subjective and difficult to evaluate. The tools can be quite useful by decision makers to analyze advantages and disadvantages between different adaptation options, but should be supplemented with additional, particularly quantitative analysis.     

Aerosols: unexpected disequilibrium phenomena between airborne radio activities of lead-210 and its progenies bismuth-210 and polonium-210

For the first time, concentrations of the long lived radon progenies ²¹⁰Pb, ²¹⁰Bi and ²¹⁰Po were measured in the mine atmosphere of the so called "healing gallery" in Badgastein, Austria, a region famous for its radioactive springs. These investigations were performed in order to study the radioactive equilibrium between the ²¹⁰Pb-²¹⁰Bi and the ²¹⁰Pb-²¹⁰Po pairs so as to gain more information about the aerosol-forming processes in the mine. The particle size distribution of the aerosols was determined under different ventilation conditions. Six-stage and eight-stage cascade impactors with working ranges from 0.15 to5 µm and from 0.063 to 8 µm, respectively, were used to collect the mine aerosols. These samples were analysed in the laboratory and measured by liquid scintillation spectrometry. The most surprising results were found under full ventilation, when the total activity concentrations of ²¹⁰Pb, ²¹⁰Bi and ²¹⁰Po were 4.6, 2.0 and 16.5 mBq/m³, respectively. In this case ²¹⁰Po/²¹⁰Pb activity ratios ranged between 1.8ǂ.3 and 4.3ǂ.3. These unexpected results were confirmed by the eight-stage impactor samples. For the smallest particles, between 0.062 and 0.125 µm, an even higher value of 7.5 was observed. As outside sources could be excluded, such ²¹⁰Po enrichments must occur during the aerosol-forming process itself inside the mine.