Modelling of BP Texas City refinery accident using dynamic risk assessment approach

Process industries involve handling of hazardous substances which on release may potentially cause catastrophic consequences in terms of assets lost, human fatalities or injuries and loss of public confidence of the company. In spite of using endless end-of-the-pipe safety systems, tragic accidents such as BP Texas City refinery still occur. One of the main reasons of such rare but catastrophic events is lack of effective monitoring and modelling approaches that provide early warnings and help to prevent such event. To develop a predictive model one has to rely on past occurrence data, as such events are rare, enough data are usually not available to better understand and model such behavior. In such situations, it is advisable to use near misses and incident data to predict system performance and estimate accident likelihood. This paper is an attempt to demonstrate testing and validation of one such approach, dynamic risk assessment, using data from the BP Texas City refinery incident.Dynamic risk assessment is a novel approach which integrates Bayesian failure updating mechanism with the consequence assessment. The implementation of this methodology to the BP Texas City incident proves that the approach has the ability to learn from near misses, incident, past accidents and predict event occurrence likelihood in the next time interval.     

Assessing uncertainty in annual nitrogen,phosphorus, and suspended sediment load estimates in three agricultural streams using a 21-year dataset

Accurate estimation of constituent loads is important for studies of ecosystem mass balance or total maximum daily loads. In response, there has been an effort to develop methods to increase both accuracy and precision of constituent load estimates. The relationship between constituent concentration and stream discharge is often complicated, potentially leading to high uncertainty in load estimates for certain constituents, especially at longer-term (annual) scales. We used the loadflex R package to compare uncertainty in annual load estimates from concentration vs. discharge relationships in constituents of interest in agricultural systems, including ammonium as nitrogen (NH₄-N), nitrate as nitrogen (NO₃-N), soluble reactive phosphorus (SRP), and suspended sediments (SS). We predicted that uncertainty would be greatest in NO₃-N and SS due to complex relationships between constituent concentration and discharge. We also predicted lower uncertainty with a composite method compared to regression or interpolation methods. Contrary to predictions, we observed the lowest uncertainty in annual NO₃-N load estimates (relative error 1.5–23%); however, uncertainty was greatest in SS load estimates, consistent with predictions (relative error 19–96%). For all constituents, we also generally observed reductions in uncertainty by up to 34% using the composite method compared to regression and interpolation approaches, as predicted. These results highlight differences in uncertainty among different constituents and will aid in model selection for future studies requiring accurate and precise estimates of constituent load.     

Isotopic evidence of nitrate sources and denitrification in the Mississippi River, Illinois

Anthropogenic nitrate (NO3-) within the Mississippi-Atchafalaya River basin and discharge to the Gulf of Mexico has been linked to serious environmental problems. The sources of this NO3- have been estimated by others using mass balance methods; however, there is considerable uncertainty in these estimates. Part of the uncertainty is the degree of denitrification that the NO3- has undergone. The isotopic composition of NO3- in the Mississippi River adjacent to Illinois and tile drain (subsurface drain) discharge in agricultural areas of east-central Illinois was examined using N and O isotopes to help identify the major sources of NO3- and assess the degree of denitrification in the samples. The isotopic evidence suggests that most of the NO3- in the river is primarily derived from synthetic fertilizers and soil organic N, which is consistent with published estimates of N inputs to the Mississippi River. The 1:2 relationship between delta18O and delta15N also indicate that, depending on sample location and season, NO3- in the river and tile drains has undergone significant denitrification, ranging from about 0 to 55%. The majority of the denitrification appears to have occurred before discharge into the Mississippi River.     

Impacts of pesticides in a Central California estuary

Recent and past studies have documented the prevalence of pyrethroid and organophosphate pesticides in urban and agricultural watersheds in California. While toxic concentrations of these pesticides have been found in freshwater systems, there has been little research into their impacts in marine receiving waters. Our study investigated pesticide impacts in the Santa Maria River estuary, which provides critical habitat to numerous aquatic, terrestrial, and avian species on the central California coast. Runoff from irrigated agriculture constitutes a significant portion of Santa Maria River flow during most of the year, and a number of studies have documented pesticide occurrence and biological impacts in this watershed. Our study extended into the Santa Maria watershed coastal zone and measured pesticide concentrations throughout the estuary, including the water column and sediments. Biological effects were measured at the organism and community levels. Results of this study suggest the Santa Maria River estuary is impacted by current-use pesticides. The majority of water samples were highly toxic to invertebrates (Ceriodaphnia dubia and Hyalella azteca), and chemistry evidence suggests toxicity was associated with the organophosphate pesticide chlorpyrifos, pyrethroid pesticides, or mixtures of both classes of pesticides. A high percentage of sediment samples were also toxic in this estuary, and sediment toxicity occurred when mixtures of chlorpyrifos and pyrethroid pesticides exceeded established toxicity thresholds. Based on a Relative Benthic Index, Santa Maria estuary stations where benthic macroinvertebrate communities were assessed were degraded. Impacts in the Santa Maria River estuary were likely due to the proximity of this system to Orcutt Creek, the tributary which accounts for most of the flow to the lower Santa Maria River. Water and sediment samples from Orcutt Creek were highly toxic to invertebrates due to mixtures of the same pesticides measured in the estuary. This study suggests that the same pyrethroid and organophosphate pesticides that have been shown to cause water and sediment toxicity in urban and agriculture water bodies throughout California, have the potential to affect estuarine habitats. The results establish baseline data in the Santa Maria River estuary to allow evaluation of ecosystem improvement as management initiatives to reduce pesticide runoff are implemented in this watershed.     

Reproductive strategies and seasonal changes in the somatic indices of seven small-bodied fishes in Atlantic Canada in relation to study design for environmental effects monitoring

Small-bodied fishes are more commonly being used in environmental effects monitoring (EEM) studies. There is a lack of understanding of the biological characteristics of many small-bodied species, which hinders study designs for monitoring studies. For example, 72 % of fish population surveys in Canada’s EEM program for pulp and paper mills that used small-bodied fishes were conducted outside of the reproductive period of the species. This resulted in an inadequate assessment of the EEM program’s primary effect endpoint (reproduction) for these studies. The present study examined seasonal changes in liver size, gonad size, and condition in seven freshwater and estuarine small-bodied fishes in Atlantic Canada. These data were used to examine differences in reproductive strategies and patterns of energy storage among species. Female gonadal recrudescence in all seven species began primarily in the 2-month period in the spring before spawning. Male gonadal development was concurrent with females in five species; however, gonadal recrudescence began in the fall in male three-spined stickleback (Gasterosteus aculeatus) and slimy sculpin (Cottus cognatus). The spawning period for each species was estimated from the decline in relative ovary size after its seasonal maximum value in spring. The duration of the spawning period reflected the reproductive strategy (single vs multiple spawning) of the species. Optimal sampling periods to assess reproductive impacts in each species were determined based on seasonal changes in ovary size and were identified to be during the prespawning period when gonads are developing and variability in relative gonad size is at a minimum.     

Field‐scale uranium (VI) bioimmobilization monitored by lipid biomarkers and 13C‐acetate incorporation

At the Old Rifle uranium mill‐tailing site in eastern Colorado, a test of subsurface amendment with acetate to stimulate the reductive immobilization of uranium was monitored by using lipid biomarker analysis and incorporation of ¹³C‐labeled acetate into lipid biomarkers. Both sediment and groundwater samples were analyzed. Within 7 days of acetate addition, groundwater microbial biomass increased by a factor of 5, and remained higher than control values in most samples for the 28 days sampled. At 29 days after the beginning of acetate amendment, 4 of 12 sediment samples had microbial biomass greater than the 95 percent confidence interval of controls. The mole percents of the phospholipid fatty acids 16:1ω7c and 16:1ω5c increased over control values upon acetate amendment, and incorporated high levels of ¹³C from labeled acetate in groundwater and sediment samples. 16:1ω7c is a biomarker for Geobacter, and evidence is provided that 16:1ω5c represents an unidentified iron‐reducing bacterium, probably a member of the Desulfobulbaceae. Biomarkers for organisms other than iron‐reducing bacteria, iso‐ and anteiso‐branched fatty acids and 18:1ω9c, decreased upon acetate amendment, and had their highest stable isotope incorporation at least 4 days after labeled acetate amendment ended, evidence for carbon‐sharing between iron‐reducers and other microorganisms. © 2011 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

The effects of tertiary treated municipal wastewater on fish communities of a small river tributary in Southern Ontario, Canada

Fish community changes associated with a tertiary treated municipal wastewater effluent outfall in the Speed River, Ontario, Canada, were evaluated at nine sites over two seasons (2008) using standardized electrofishing. Habitat evaluations were conducted to ensure that the riffle sites selected were physically similar. The fish community was dominated by several species of darters that differed in their response to the effluent outfall. There was a significant decrease in Greenside Darter (Etheostoma blennioides) but an increase in Rainbow Darter (E. caeruleum) abundance directly downstream of the outfall. Stable isotope signatures (δ¹³C and δ¹⁵N), which indicate shifts in energy utilization and flow, increased in Rainbow Darter downstream, but showed no change in Greenside Darter. Rainbow Darter may be exploiting a food source that is not as available at upstream sites giving them a competitive advantage over the Greenside Darter immediately downstream of the outfall.     

A Method for Comparative Analysis of Recovery Potential in Impaired Waters Restoration Planning

Common decision support tools and a growing body of knowledge about ecological recovery can help inform and guide large state and federal restoration programs affecting thousands of impaired waters. Under the federal Clean Water Act (CWA), waters not meeting state Water Quality Standards due to impairment by pollutants are placed on the CWA Section 303(d) list, scheduled for Total Maximum Daily Load (TMDL) development, and ultimately restored. Tens of thousands of 303(d)-listed waters, many with completed TMDLs, represent a restoration workload of many years. State TMDL scheduling and implementation decisions influence the choice of waters and the sequence of restoration. Strategies that compare these waters’ recovery potential could optimize the gain of ecological resources by restoring promising sites earlier. We explored ways for states to use recovery potential in restoration priority setting with landscape analysis methods, geographic data, and impaired waters monitoring data. From the literature and practice we identified measurable, recovery-relevant ecological, stressor, and social context metrics and developed a restorability screening approach adaptable to widely different environments and program goals. In this paper we describe the indicators, the methodology, and three statewide, recovery-based targeting and prioritization projects. We also call for refining the scientific basis for estimating recovery potential.

Modeling Protected Species Habitat and Assigning Risk to Inform Regulatory Decisions

In the United States, environmental regulatory agencies are required to use “best available” scientific information when making decisions on a variety of issues. However, agencies are often hindered by coarse or incomplete data, particularly as it pertains to threatened and endangered species protection. Stakeholders often agree that more resolute and integrated processes for decision-making are desirable. We demonstrate a process that uses species occurrence data for a federally endangered insect (Karner blue butterfly), a readily available habitat modeling tool, and spatially explicit information about an important Michigan commodity (tart cherries). This case study has characteristics of many protected species regulatory decisions in that species occurrence data were sparse and unequally distributed; regulatory decisions (on pesticide use) were required with potentially significant impacts on a viable agricultural industry; and stakeholder relations were diverse, misinformed, and, in some situations, unjustly contentious. Results from our process include a large-scale, empirically derived habitat suitability map for the focal species and a risk ranking of tart cherry orchards with risk based on the likelihood that pesticide applications will influence the focal protected species. Although the majority (77%) of pesticide-influence zones overlapped Karner blue butterfly habitat, risk scores associated with each orchard were low. Through our process we demonstrated that spatially explicit models can help stakeholders visualize and quantify potential protected species effects. In addition, model outputs can serve to guide field activities (e.g., species surveys and implementation of pesticide buffer zones) that help minimize future effects.