Signal-transfer modeling for regional assessment of forest responses to environmental changes in the southeastern United States

Stochastic transfer of information in a hierarchy of simulators is offered as a conceptual approach for assessing forest responses to changing climate and air quality across 13 southeastern states of the USA. This assessment approach combines geographic information system and Monte Carlo capabilities with several scales of computer modeling for southern pine species and eastern deciduous forests. Outputs, such as forest production, evapotranspiration and carbon pools, may be compared statistically for alternative equilibrium or transient scenarios providing a statistical basis for decision making in regional assessments. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Liver lesions in demersal fishes near a large ocean outfall on the San Pedro Shelf, California

The prevalence of toxicopathic liver lesions in demersal fish on the San Pedro Shelf, California was determined for a 15-year period (1988–2003). Fish livers were sampled at fixed locations as part of the Orange County Sanitation Districts (OCSD) ocean monitoring program. Histopathological examination of selected fish liver tissues was studied to determine whether the wastewater discharge had affected fish health. The prevalence of toxicopathic lesion classes neoplasms (NEO), preneoplastic foci of cellular alteration (FCA), and hydropic vacuolation (HYDVAC) varied among species and locations. For all species sampled, severe lesions occurred in 6.2% of the fish examined (n = 7,694). HYDVAC (4.1%) was the most common toxicopathic lesion type followed by FCA (1.4%) and NEO (0.7%). HYDVAC occurred only in white croaker (Genyonemus lineatus), accounting for 84.8% of the toxicopathic lesions for this species. Prevalence of HYDVAC, NEO, and FCA in white croaker was 15.2, 2.0, and 0.7%, respectively. The prevalence of HYDVAC and NEO in white croaker increased with age and size but there was no sexual difference. A linear regression model was used for hypothesis testing to account for significant differences in fish size (and age for croakers) at the different sampling locations. This analysis showed that for HYDVAC there was no spatial or location effect for lesion rate or size/age of onset. For NEO, the model predicted that white croaker near the wastewater outfall may acquire these lesions at a smaller size/younger age, and at a higher rate, than at other sites. However, this result may be biased due to the unequal size frequency distributions and the low prevalence of NEO in white croaker at the different sampling sites. Bigmouth sole (Hippoglossina stomata) had a prevalence of FCA and NEO of 1.3 and 0.35%, respectively, but the prevalence and distribution of lesions was too few for statistical testing. There was no sexual difference for lesion prevalence in hornyhead turbot (Pleuronichthys verticalis) and the prevalence of FCA and NEO was 3.4 and 0.37%, respectively. FCA prevalence increased with size in hornyhead turbot and there were no significant spatial differences for lesion rates and fish size at lesion onset. Overall, consistent spatial differences for lesion prevalence were not demonstrated and highlight the analytical difficulties of detecting a possible point source impact when the effect is rare, correlated with the size/age structure of the population, and may be caused by exposure to unknown multiple sources. Thus, the usefulness of liver histopathology as a point-source monitoring tool is best applied to where the spatial scale of impact generally exceeds the home range of the target species.     

The relationship between country and individual household wealth and climate change concern: the mediating role of control

The relationship between wealth and climate change concern has been a focus of several studies. In this article, we hypothesize that richer households (and countries) are less concerned about climate change because wealth provides a buffer against some of the related risks. This leads people in wealthier countries and households to perceive a greater sense of control over climate change impacts, which in turn results in lower levels of concern. We tested this hypothesis using a unique household survey encompassing 11 OECD countries and over 10,000 households and applying mixed multi-level regression models. Our results confirmed a statistically significant negative relationship between country and household wealth and individuals’ perceptions of the seriousness of climate change. This study contributes to current literature by showing that this relationship is mediated through sense of control, measured at the country level by the country’s readiness index and at the individual household level by the extent of adoption of energy efficiency improvements. These findings raise the question of how best to incentivize action on climate change amongst those with the ability—but not necessarily the motivation—to respond.

     

Community resilience,land degradation and endogenous lock-in effects: evidence from the Alento region,Campania, Italy

This study analyses social, economic and political “lock-ins” for understanding community resilience and land degradation. The study focuses on lock-ins from within communities, using four case study communities in Italy affected by land degradation. The analysis highlights the complex interrelationships between various lock-ins, and suggests that the communities are on declining resilience pathways that may lead to increasing difficulties in addressing land degradation issues in future.     

The Chemical and Meteorological Conditions Associated with High and Low Ozone Concentrations in Southeastern Michigan and Nearby Areas of Ontario

This analysis represents the first characterization of the photochemistry and transport of ozone in the Detroit metropolitan area and provides a basis for comparing data for Detroit to that for other cities. The characterization is based on a comprehensive set of meteorological and chemical measurements obtained at a site in the urban core of Detroit during the summer of 1981, together with measurements of O₃, nitrogen oxides (NO _X ), and nonmethane organic compounds (NMOC) from rural, suburban, and urban areas in southeastern Michigan and adjacent areas of Ontario.

For the quartile (23 days) with highest ozone maxima (97-180 ppb), the maxima occurred 10-70 km north-northeast of the city on days that were warm and hazy with light southsouthwest winds. On such days there was a marked accumulation of ozone precursors (NMOC and NO_X) in the early morning, as well as a rapid chemical removal of NO _X (NO _X half-life of ～5 h) from morning to midday. The timing of the daily ozone increase across the study region suggests that local photochemical generation in a moving plume was responsible for more than half of the ozone measured downwind. However, there was also evidence that ozone transported into Detroit as part of the regional background was a significant part of the O₃ maxima on high ozone days. The average contributions of photochemistry and transport for the 23 days with the highest ozone maxima were estimated to be 57 ppb and 47 ppb, respectively.     

Measurements of Sulfur Oxides,Nitrogen Oxides,Haze and Fine Particles at a Rural Site on the Atlantic Coast

During August, 1982 and January and February, 1983, General Motors Research Laboratories operated air monitoring sites on the Atlantic Coast near Lewes, Delaware and 1250 km to the east on the southwest coast of Bermuda. The overall purpose of this project was to study the transformations of the principal acid precipitation precursors, NO _x and SO _x species, as they transport under conditions not complicated by emissions from local sources. In this paper, the measurements of gas and particulate species from Lewes are described and the composition and sources of sulfate aerosol, which is the most important haze-producing species, are investigated.

On the average, the total suspended particulate (TSP) concentration was 27.9 μg/m³ while the PM₁₀ (mass of particles with a diameter less than or equal to 10 μm) concentration was 22.0 μg/m³ or 79 percent of the TSP. The PM₁₀ consisted of 6.1 μg/m³ of coarse particles (CPM, diameter = 2.5 ? 10μm) and 15.9 μg/m³ of fine particles (FPM, diameter < 2.5 μm).

On a mass basis the most important constituents of the fine particulate fraction were sulfate compounds, 50 percent, and organic compounds, 30 percent. The mean light extinction coefficient corresponds to a visual range of 18-20 km. Most of the extinction can be attributed to the sulfate (60 percent) and organic carbon (13 percent). Particle size measurements show that the mass median aerodynamic diameter for both species is 0.43 μm. This is a typical size for a hydrated sulfate aerosol. For carbon, however, this is a larger size than previously reported and results in a more efficient light scattering aerosol. Principal component analyses indicate that coal combustion emissions from the midwestern U.S. are the most significant source of sulfate in Lewes during the summer and winter.     

Evaluation of Catalyzed and Electrically Heated Filters for Removal of Particulate Emissions from Diesel-A- and JP-8-Fueled Engines

Abstract

In-service diesel engines are a significant source of particulate matter (PM) emissions, and they have been subjected to increasingly strict emissions standards. Consequently, the wide-scale use of some type of particulate filter is expected. This study evaluated the effect of an Engelhard catalyzed soot filter (CSF) and a Rypos electrically heated soot filter on the emissions from in-service diesel engines in terms of PM mass, black carbon concentration, particle-bound polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon concentration, and size distribution. Both filters capture PM. The CSF relies on the engine's exhaust to reach the catalyst regeneration temperature and oxidize soot, whereas the electrically heated filter contains a heating element to oxidize soot. The filters were installed on several military diesel engines. Particle concentrations and compositions were measured before and after installation of the filter and again after several months of operation. Generally, the CSF removed at least 90% of total PM, and the removal efficiency improved or remained constant after several months of operation. In contrast, the electrical filters removed 44-69% of PM mass. In addition to evaluating the soot filters, the sampling team also compared the results of several real-time particle measurement instruments to traditional filter measurements of total mass.     

Photochemical modeling in California with two chemical mechanisms: model intercomparison and response to emission reductions

An updated version of the Statewide Air Pollution Research Center (SAPRC) chemical mechanism (SAPRC07C) was implemented into the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) version 4.6. CMAQ simulations using SAPRC07C and the previously released version, SAPRC99, were performed and compared for an episode during July-August, 2000. Ozone (O3) predictions of the SAPRC07C simulation are generally lower than those of the SAPRC99 simulation in the key areas of central and southern California, especially in areas where modeled concentrations are greater than the federal 8-hr O3 standard of 75 parts per billion (ppb) and/or when the volatile organic compound (VOC)/nitrogen oxides (NOx) ratio is less than 13. The relative changes of ozone production efficiency (OPE) against the VOC/NOx ratio at 46 sites indicate that the OPE is reduced in SAPRC07C compared with SAPRC99 at most sites by as much as approximately 22%. The SAPRC99 and SAPRC07C mechanisms respond similarly to 20% reductions in anthropogenic VOC emissions. The response of the mechanisms to 20% NOx emissions reductions can be grouped into three cases. In case 1, in which both mechanisms show a decrease in daily maximum 8-hr O3 concentration with decreasing NOx emissions, the O3 decrease in SAPRC07C is smaller. In case 2, in which both mechanisms show an increase in O3 with decreasing NOx emissions, the O3 increase is larger in SAPRC07C. In case 3, SAPRC07C simulates an increase in O3 in response to reduced NOx emissions whereas SAPRC99 simulates a decrease in O3 for the same region. As a result, the areas where NOx controls would be disbeneficial are spatially expanded in SAPRC07C. Although the results presented here are valuable for understanding differences in predictions and model response for SAPRC99 and SAPRC07C, the study did not evaluate the impact of mechanism differences in the context of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's guidance for using numerical models in demonstrating air quality attainment. Therefore, additional study is required to evaluate the full regulatory implications of upgrading air quality models to SAPRC07.     

Identifying the cause of toxicity in an algal whole effluent toxicity study - an unanticipated toxicant

Toxicity was observed in whole effluent toxicity (WET) studies with the freshwater alga, Pseudokirchneriella subcapitata, in three consecutive monthly studies, (NOEC = 50-75%). Toxicity was not observed to Ceriodaphnia dubia or the fathead minnow, Pimephales promelas in concurrent studies. Selected toxicity identification evaluation (TIE) tests were conducted in a tiered approach to eliminate possible toxicants and progressively identify the causative agent. Filtration following alkaline adjustment (pH 10 or 11) was effective in eliminating significant growth effects and also reduced phosphate concentration. The TIE studies confirmed that the observed effluent toxicity was caused by excess ortho-phosphate in the effluent not by overstimulation or related to unfavorable N:P ratios; but due to direct toxicity. The 96-h 25% inhibition concentration (IC25) of ortho-phosphate to P. subcapitata was 3.4 mg L⁻¹ while the maximum acceptable toxicant concentration was 4.8 mg L⁻¹. This study illustrates the value of multi-species testing and also provides an example of an effective TIE using algae identifying an unanticipated toxicant.