Efforts to anticipate threats to biodiversity take the form of species richness predictions (SRPs) based on simple correlations with current climate and habitat area. We review the major approaches that have been used for SRP, species-area curves and climate envelopes, and suggest that alternative research efforts may provide more understanding and guidance for management. Extinction prediction suffers from a number of limitations related to data and the novelty of future environments. We suggest additional attention to (1) identification of variables related to biodiversity that are diagnostic and potentially more predictable than extinction, (2) constraints on species dispersal and reproduction that will determine population persistence and range shifts, including limited sources or potential immigrants for many regions, and (3) changes in biotic interactions and phenology. We suggest combinations of observational and experimental approaches within a framework available for ingesting heterogeneous data sources. Together, these recommendations amount to a shift in emphasis from prediction of extinction numbers to identification of vulnerabilities and leading indicators of change, as well as suggestions for surveillance tools needed to evaluate important variables and the experiments likely to provide most insight. 相似文献
The environmental fate of 40 existing chemicals is discussed using the EUSES multimedia distribution and risk assessment model with site-specific parameter setting in an urban area of Japan including a highly industrial region. There has been a strong need to assess the environmental fate of a huge number of existing chemicals. Data on the emission amounts of chemicals are essential for such prediction, and PRTR surveys may yield this data. The study delivered the following results: (1) Volatile compounds with large amounts of emission showed higher predicted concentrations in air, and the concentrations of several compounds agreed well with averaged monitoring data within an order of magnitude. (2) A close relationship was found between the concentration of water and that of sediment, suggesting that the fate of chemicals in sediment essentially depended on the water environment. (3) A group of volatile solvents had high mass distribution ratio to air. Some compounds having high solubility in water were also included in that group due to the high ratio of air emission. Highly hydrophobic compounds with logK(OW) larger than 6.0 showed a high distribution ratio to soil and sediment. (4) Volatile compounds were mostly taken through air. The exposure through fish is a dominant pathway for highly hydrophobic compounds. (5) Exposure ratio could be gathered from physicochemical properties. The exposure from fish intake was roughly estimated by logK(OW), whereas exposure from air and water intake was difficult to estimate simply by vapor pressure and solubility in water, respectively. 相似文献
Adaptation research has changed significantly in recent years as funders and researchers seek to encourage greater impact, ensure value for money and promote interdisciplinarity across the natural and social sciences. While these developments are inherently positive, they also bring fresh challenges. With this in mind, this paper presents an agenda for the next generation of climate adaptation research for development. The agenda is based on insights from a dialogue session held at the 2016 Adaptation Futures conference as well as drawing on the collective experience of the authors. We propose five key areas that need to be changed in order to meet the needs of future adaptation research, namely: increasing transparency and consultation in research design; encouraging innovation in the design and delivery of adaptation research programmes; demonstrating impact on the ground; addressing incentive structures; and promoting more effective brokering, knowledge management and learning. As new international funding initiatives start to take shape, we underscore the importance of learning from past experiences and scaling-up of successful innovations in research funding models.
Despite a large body of theory, few studies have directly assessed the effects of variation in population size on fitness components in natural populations of plants. We conducted studies on 10 populations of scarlet gilia, Ipomopsis aggregata , to assess the effects of population size and year-to-year variation in size on the relative fitness of plants. We showed that seed size and germination success are significantly reduced in small populations (those 100 flowering plants) of scarlet gilia. Plants from small populations are also more susceptible to environmental stress. When plants from small and large populations were subjected to an imposed stress (combined effects of transplanting and experimental clipping, simulating ungulate herbivory) in a common garden experiment, plants from small populations suffered higher mortality and were ultimately of smaller size than plants from large populations. In addition, experimental evidence indicates that observed fitness reductions are genetic, due to the effects of genetic drift and/or inbreeding depression. When pollen was introduced from distant populations into two small populations, seed mass and percentage of germination were bolstered, while pollen transferred into a large population had no significant effect. Year-to-year variation in population size and its effects on plant fitness are also discussed. In one small population, for example, a substantial increase in size from within did not introduce sufficient new (archived) genetic material to fully overcome the effects of inbreeding depression. 相似文献
Over the past few years, a great deal of interest has been focused on the use of remote sensing for resource management. This paper examines one of the most useful systems — Landsat. Included in this paper is a discussion of this remote-sensing technology, its application and its future as a tool for resources planning and management. 相似文献
Summary Live and stuffed male and female red-winged blackbirds (Agelaius phoeniceus) were presented to territorial males in order to study the repertoire organization of males during intersexual and intrasexual encounters. Territorial male red-winged blackbirds switched song types more frequently and sang more song types in response to presentation of a female stimulus than during control periods, but decreased their switching frequency when a male stimulus was presented. Switching frequency in response to the female stimulus was three times that in response to the male stimulus. These results support the hypothesis that song repertoires of male red-winged blackbirds evolved primarily in response to intersexual rather than intrasexual selection. They also suggest that male red-winged blackbirds have been selected to de-emphasize their song repertoires during encounters with conspecific males as a result of some as yet unidentified cost.
Offprint requests to: W.A. Searcy 相似文献
The geographic distribution of stream reaches with potential to support high-quality habitat for salmonids has bearing on the actual status of habitats and populations over broad spatial extents. As part of the Coastal Landscape Analysis and Modeling Study (CLAMS), we examined how salmon-habitat potential was distributed relative to current and future (+100 years) landscape characteristics in the Coastal Province of Oregon, USA. The intrinsic potential to provide high-quality rearing habitat was modeled for juvenile coho salmon (Oncorhynchus kisutch) and juvenile steelhead (O. mykiss) based on stream flow, valley constraint, and stream gradient. Land ownership, use, and cover were summarized for 100-m analysis buffers on either side of stream reaches with high intrinsic potential and in the overall area encompassing the buffers. Past management seems to have concentrated nonindustrial private ownership, agriculture, and developed uses adjacent to reaches with high intrinsic potential for coho salmon. Thus, of the area in coho salmon buffers, 45% is either nonforested or recently logged, but only 10% is in larger-diameter forests. For the area in steelhead buffers, 21% is either non-forested or recently logged while 20% is in larger-diameter forests. Older forests are most extensive on federal lands but are rare on private lands, highlighting the critical role for public lands in near-term salmon conservation. Agriculture and development are projected to remain focused near high-intrinsic-potential reaches for coho salmon, increasing the importance of effectively addressing nonpoint source pollution from these uses. Percentages of larger-diameter forests are expected to increase throughout the province, but the increase will be only half as much in coho salmon buffers as in steelhead buffers. Most of the increase is projected for public lands, where policies emphasize biodiversity protection. Results suggest that widespread recovery of coho salmon is unlikely unless habitat can be improved in high-intrinsic-potential reaches on private lands. Knowing where high-intrinsic-potential stream reaches occur relative to landscape characteristics can help in evaluating the current and future condition of freshwater habitat, explaining differences between species in population status and risk, and assessing the need for and feasibility of restoration. 相似文献