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Kevin Shirley Eric Marland Jenna Cantrell Gregg Marland 《Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change》2011,16(3):325-346
We recognize that carbon-containing products do not decay and release CO2 to the atmosphere instantaneously, but release that carbon over extended periods of time. For an initial production of a
stock of carbon-containing product, we can treat the release as a probability distribution covering the time over which that
release occurs. The probability distribution that models the carbon release predicts the amount of carbon that is released
as a function of time. The use of a probability distribution in accounting for the release of carbon to the atmosphere realizes
a fundamental shift from the idea that all carbon-containing products contribute to a single pool that decays in proportion
to the size of the stock. Viewing the release of carbon as a continuous probabilistic process introduces some theoretical
opportunities not available in the former paradigm by taking advantage of other fields where the use of probability distributions
has been prevalent for many decades. In particular, theories developed in the life insurance industry can guide the development
of pricing and payment structures for dealing with the costs associated with the oxidation and release of carbon. These costs
can arise from a number of proposed policies (cap and trade, carbon tax, social cost of carbon, etc), but in the end they
all result in there being a cost to releasing carbon to the atmosphere. If there is a cost to the emitter for CO2 emissions, payment for that cost will depend on both when the emissions actually occur and how payment is made. Here we outline
some of the pricing and payment structures that are possible which result from analogous theories in the life insurance industry.
This development not only provides useful constructs for valuing sequestered carbon, but highlights additional motivations
for employing a probability distribution approach to unify accounting methodologies for stocks of carbon containing products. 相似文献
24.
Estimation of ocean environmental return values is critical to the safety and reliability of marine and coastal structures. For ocean waves and storm severity, return values are typically estimated by extreme value analysis of time series of measured or hindcast sea state significant wave height HS. For a single location, this analysis is complicated by the serial dependence of HS in time and its non‐stationarity with respect to multiple covariates, particularly direction and season. Here, we report a non‐stationary extreme value analysis of storm peak significant wave height , assumed temporally independent given covariates, incorporating directional and seasonal effects using a spline‐based methodology incorporating an ensemble of models for different extreme value thresholds. Quantile regression is used to estimate suitable thresholds. For each threshold, a Poisson process is used to estimate the rate of occurrence of threshold exceedances, and a generalised Pareto model characterises the magnitude of threshold exceedances. Covariate effects are incorporated at each stage using penalised tensor products of B‐splines to give smooth model parameter variation as a function of covariates. Optimal smoothing penalties are selected using cross‐validation, and uncertainty is quantified using bias‐corrected and accelerated bootstrap resampling. We use the model to estimate environmental return values for a location in the Makassar Strait, in the South China Sea. Return values distributions for are estimated by simulation under the threshold ensemble model. Return values for HS are then estimated by simulating intra‐storm trajectories of HS consistent with the characteristics of the simulated storm peak events using a matching procedure. Return values for maximum individual crest elevation C are estimated by marginalisation using a pre‐specified conditional distribution for C given HS and other sea state parameters. Model validation is performed by comparing confidence intervals for cumulative distribution functions of and HS for the period of the data with empirical sample‐based estimates. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
25.
Timothy J. Pac James Baldock Brendan Brodie Jennifer Byrd Beatriz Gil Kevin A. Morris Denice Nelson Jaydeep Parikh Paulo Santos Miguel Singer Alan Thomas 《补救:环境净化治理成本、技术与工艺杂志》2019,29(2):75-91
This paper compiles a detailed set of in situ chemical oxidation (ISCO) lessons learned pertaining to design, execution, and safety based on global experiences over the last 20 years. While the benefits of a “correct” application are known (e.g., cost effectiveness, speed, permanence of treatment), history also provides examples of a variety of “incorrect” applications. These provide an opportunity to highlight recurring themes that resulted in failures. ISCO is, and will continue to provide, an important remedial tool for site remediation, particularly as a component of a multifaceted approach for addressing large and complex sites. Future success, however, requires an objective understanding of both the benefits and the limitations of the technology. The ability to learn from the mistakes of the past provides an opportunity to eliminate, or at least minimize, them in the future. Over the last 25 years of ISCO application, process understanding and knowledge have improved and evolved. This paper combines a thorough discussion of lessons learned through decades of ISCO implementation throughout all aspects of ISCO projects with an analysis of changes to the ISCO remediation market. By discussing the interplay of these two themes and providing recommendations from collective lessons learned, we hope to improve the future of safe, cost‐effective, and successful applications of ISCO. 相似文献
26.
INTRODUCTION: This paper describes a web-based system for monitoring and assessing construction safety and health performance, entitled the Construction Safety and Health Monitoring (CSHM) system. METHOD: The design and development of CSHM is an integration of internet and database systems, with the intent to create a total automated safety and health management tool. A list of safety and health performance parameters was devised for the management of safety and health in construction. A conceptual framework of the four key components of CSHM is presented: (a) Web-based Interface (templates); (b) Knowledge Base; (c) Output Data; and (d) Benchmark Group. RESULTS: The combined effect of these components results in a system that enables speedy performance assessment of safety and health activities on construction sites. With the CSHM's built-in functions, important management decisions can theoretically be made and corrective actions can be taken before potential hazards turn into fatal or injurious occupational accidents. IMPACT ON INDUSTRY: As such, the CSHM system will accelerate the monitoring and assessing of performance safety and health management tasks. 相似文献
27.
Hand injuries form a significant proportion of all workplace injuries. They are costly to treat, and lead to significant loss of time at work. This paper has two parts. First, there is a review of the literature that discusses prevalence of hand injury, and the significance of hand roles and handedness in industrial injuries. The second part represents an initial attempt to document the roles of the two hands in a particular industry, the metal manufacturing industry. The purpose of this survey of 30 different work stations in seven different industrial plants was to see whether there is a significant bias in terms of movement requirements for one or the other hand, leading to a possible differential risk of injury for the left and right hands. Overall, there was no clear bias favoring the right hand in activities assigned to the hands in seven different movement categories (MTM). However, the location of emergency controls favored the right hand unequivocally. The implications of biases favoring the left/right hand for safety of machine operation are discussed in the light of current findings on left/right hand performance in right- and lefthanders. 相似文献
28.
We investigated the associations of the quantity and quality of part-time employment with the school performance (amount of class cutting, homework, and average grades) and personal functioning (self-esteem and time use) of high-school students. Two hypotheses were tested: (a) working long hours would be associated with detrimental effects, but (b) the quality of employment would moderate these effects, such that employment quantity would be associated with detrimental effects only for low quality jobs. Data from 563 high school students (n = 233 in part-time employment) provided support for the hypotheses. Conceptual, practical and policy ramifications of these findings are considered. 相似文献
29.
Chris Pratt Adrian S. Walcroft Julie Deslippe Kevin R. Tate 《Waste management (New York, N.Y.)》2013,33(2):412-419
Landfills that generate too little biogas for economic energy recovery can potentially offset methane (CH4) emissions through biological oxidation by methanotrophic bacteria in cover soils. This study reports on the CH4 oxidation efficiency of a 10-year old landfill cap comprising a volcanic pumice soil. Surface CH4 and CO2 fluxes were measured using field chambers during three sampling intervals over winter and summer. Methane fluxes were temporally and spatially variable (?0.36 to 3044 mg CH4 m?2 h?1); but were at least 15 times lower than typical literature CH4 fluxes reported for older landfills in 45 of the 46 chambers tested. Exposure of soil from this landfill cover to variable CH4 fluxes in laboratory microcosms revealed a very strong correlation between CH4 oxidation efficiency and CH4/CO2 ratios, confirming the utility of this relationship for approximating CH4 oxidation efficiency. CH4/CO2 ratios were applied to gas concentrations from the surface flux chambers and indicated a mean CH4 oxidation efficiency of 72%. To examine CH4 oxidation with soil depth, we collected 10 soil depth profiles at random locations across the landfill. Seven profiles exhibited CH4 removal rates of 70–100% at depths <60 cm, supporting the high oxidation rates observed in the chambers. Based on a conservative 70% CH4 oxidation efficiency occurring at the site, this cover soil is clearly offsetting far greater CH4 quantities than the 10% default value currently adopted by the IPCC. 相似文献
30.
Davey L. Jones John F. Farrar Kevin K. Newsham 《Water, Air, & Soil Pollution: Focus》2004,4(6):169-175
Amino acids constitute one of the largest inputs of organic nitrogen (N) to most polar soils and have been hypothesized to be important in regulating vegetational succession and productivity in Arctic ecosystems. Our understanding of amino acid cycling in these soils, however, is poor. The aim of this study was to investigate the size and rate of turnover of the amino acid pool in a range of Arctic and Antarctic soils. Our results indicate that in polar soils with either high or low ornithogenic inputs the amino acid pool is small in comparison to the inorganic N pool (NO–3 and NH+4). The free amino acid pool constituted only a small proportion of the total dissolved organic nitrogen (DON) pool in these soils. Here we show that these low concentrations may be due to rapid use by the soil microbial community in both Arctic and Antarctic soils. The turnover of the amino acid pool in soil was extremely rapid, with a half-life ranging from 2 to 24 h, indicating that this N pool can be turned over many hundred times each summer when polar soils are frequently unfrozen. The implications of amino acids in N cycling and plant and microbial nutrition are discussed. 相似文献