Heredity and risk of disease

Mathematical modeling of competing risks often uses a single risk function for all individuals within a population. In this paper we use several specific examples to argue that such representations remain approximations until account is taken of the existence of genetic variability within and between populations, and the impact of this upon liability to disease. The extent of human genetic variability is also indicated.     

Exposure to the sobriety "Checkpoint Strikeforce" campaign in Maryland: impact on driver perceptions of vulnerability and behavior

OBJECTIVES: To compare drivers who were: (1) exposed to Maryland's sobriety "Checkpoint Strikeforce" campaign; (2) not exposed but were aware of it; and (3) neither exposed nor aware of it. This six-month campaign involved periodic road-side sobriety checkpoints, in which police attempted to detect and arrest drunk drivers and a series of radio Public Service Announcements (PSAs) that promoted public awareness. METHODS: A statewide sample of 1725 drivers were interviewed by telephone to determine their exposure to and awareness of this campaign, as well as their beliefs and behaviors concerning drunk driving and seat belt usage. RESULTS: Relatively few people (9.6%) were exposed in any way to the campaign; however almost 30% were aware of it. Significant increases in perceived vulnerability to arrest for drinking and driving were found among those who were exposed. There were no differences in reported drinking and driving, but seat belt usage in the last 30 days was higher among those who were exposed. There were no differences among those people who had been directly exposed to the campaign (i.e., personally gone through a sobriety checkpoint) and those who were indirectly exposed (i.e., knew a family member or someone else who went through a checkpoint). CONCLUSIONS: Exposure to a sobriety checkpoint was associated with increased perceptions of drink-driving risk (i.e., likelihood of getting caught by the police), which was not dependent upon having personally experienced it. Awareness without exposure appears to be insufficient to change perceived risk. The need to increase the reach and frequency of the sobriety "Checkpoint Strikeforce" campaign is indicated.     

Nitrogen removal and nitrate leaching for forage systems receiving dairy effluent

Florida dairies need year-round forage systems that prevent loss of N to ground water from waste effluent sprayfields. Our purpose was to quantify forage N removal and monitor nitrate N (NO3(-)-N) concentrations in soil water below the rooting zone for two forage systems during four 12-mo cycles (1996-2000). Soil in the sprayfield is an excessively drained Kershaw sand (thermic, uncoated Typic Quartzipsamment). Over four cycles, average loading rates of effluent N were 500, 690, and 910 kg ha(-1) per cycle. Nitrogen removed by the bermudagrass (Cynodon spp.)-rye (Secale cereale L.) system (BR) during the first three cycles was 465 kg ha(-1) per cycle for the low loading rate, 528 kg ha(-1) for the medium rate, and 585 kg ha(-1) for the high. For the corn (Zea mays L.)-forage sorghum [Sorghum bicolor (L.) Moench]-rye system (CSR), N removals were 320 kg ha(-1) per cycle for the low rate, 327 kg ha(-1) for the medium, and 378 kg ha(-1) for the high. The higher N removals for BR were attributed to higher N concentration in bermudagrass (18.1-24.2 g kg(-1)) than in corn and forage sorghum (10.3-14.7 g kg(-1)). Dry matter yield declined in the fourth cycle for bermudagrass but N removal continued to be higher for BR than CSR. The BR system was much more effective at preventing NO3(-)-N leaching. For CSR, NO3(-)-N levels in soil water (1.5 m below surface) increased steeply during the period between the harvest of one forage and canopy dosure of the next. Overall, the BR system was better than CSR at removing N from the soil and maintaining low NO3(-)-N concentrations below the rooting zone.     

Bioavailable phosphorus in runoff from alfalfa, smooth bromegrass, and alfalfa-smooth bromegrass

Runoff from sloping landscapes cropped with established alfalfa (Medicago sativa L.) may contain bioavailable P (BAP) which accelerates eutrophication of surface water bodies. Such BAP exists as either dissolved reactive P (DRP) or bioavailable reactive particulate P (BPP). We hypothesized that before and after harvest, sod-forming smooth bromegrass (Bromus inermis Leyss.) or alfalfa-smooth bromegrass mixtures would have less BAP, DRP, and BPP runoff losses than taprooted alfalfa. Swards established in 1992 near Lancaster, WI were subjected to a 72 mm simulated rainfall applied for 1 h in 1993 and 1994 to forage regrowth at 4 and 6 wk after first harvest and immediately (0 wk) after second harvest. Hourly BAP losses for all sward types were 82% less when 1.5 Mg ha(-1) of forage dry matter was present. High DRP losses (>0.050 kg ha(-1)) were associated with high DRP concentrations (>7.1 micromol L(-1)) and high surface soil P concentrations (>59 mg kg(-1)) resulting from broadcast maintenance P fertilizer. High BPP losses (>0.035 kg ha(-1)) were associated with high runoff volumes (>24 mm) and sediment concentrations (>2 g L(-1)). Summed over all 6 rainfall simulations, total BAP loss was only 0.07 kg ha(-1) at the 6 wk stage of regrowth compared with 0.35 at 4 wk, and 0.41 at 0 wk. Moreover, there was no significant difference between sward types for DRP concentration, DRP loss, or BAP loss. We conclude that avoiding excessive defoliation was more effective at reducing BAP losses than specific forage species selection.     

Interactions between morphological and physiological plasticity optimize energy acquisition in corals

Morphological plasticity in response to environmental heterogeneity may be performance enhancing or may simply result from an intrinsic instability in morphology during development. Although patterns of morphological change are well documented for numerous taxa, it is often unclear whether this plasticity enhances the performance of organisms in the habitat to which they have acclimatized. Reef-building corals are an ideal model system in which to investigate this question. We here develop a three-dimensional geometric model and present a comprehensive photosynthesis data set with experimentally calibrated photosynthesis models that predicts energy acquisition by foliose corals as a function of colony shape. This allows us to assess the extent to which changes in colony morphology along an environmental gradient track the predicted optimal colony morphologies. Our results provide strong evidence that phenotypic plasticity in foliose corals optimizes photosynthetic energy acquisition and is not simply a mechanism to increase light capture. We show that the optimal morphology is constrained at the boundaries of the environmental gradient, with non-optimal morphologies in these habitats having greatly reduced energy acquisition. However, at the center of the environmental gradient, flexibility in photophysiology allows energy acquisition to be very similar for multiple morphologies. Our results highlight the importance of phenotypic plasticity at multiple scales. Variation in overall morphology is important at niche boundaries at which conditions are consistently more stressful, whereas physiological flexibility is important in intermediate and less predictable habitats in which a rapid and reversible response to environmental fluctuations is required.     

Variation in colony geometry modulates internal light levels in branching corals, <Emphasis Type="Italic">Acropora humilis</Emphasis> and <Emphasis Type="Italic">Stylophora pistillata</Emphasis>

Colonial photosynthetic marine organisms often exhibit morphological phenotypic plasticity. Where such plasticity leads to an improved balance between rates of photosynthesis and maintenance costs, it is likely to have adaptive significance. To explore whether such phenotypic plasticity leads to more favourable within-colony irradiance for reef-building branching corals, this relationship was investigated for two coral species Acropora humilis and Stylophora pistillata, along a depth gradient representing light habitats ranging from 500 to 25 μmol photons m⁻² s⁻¹, during 2006 at Heron Island, Great Barrier Reef (23.44°S, 151.91°E). In the present study changes in flow-modulated mass transfer co-varied with light as a function of depth. In low-light (deep) habitats, branch spacing (colony openness) in A. humilis and S. pistillata was 40–50% greater than for conspecifics in high-light environments. Also, branches of A. humilis in deep water were 40–60% shorter than in shallow water. Phenotypic changes in these two variables lead to steeper within-colony light attenuation resulting in 38% higher mean internal irradiance (at the tissue surface) in deep colonies compared to shallow colonies. The pattern of branch spacing was similar for S. pistillata, but this species displayed an alternate strategy with respect to branch length: shade adapted deep and cave colonies developed longer and thinner branches, allowing access to higher mass transfer and irradiance. Corals in cave habitats allowed 20% more irradiance compared to colonies found in the deep, and had a 47% greater proportion of irradiance compared to colonies in the shallow high-light environment. Such phenotypic regulation of internal light levels on branch surfaces partly explains the broad light niches of many branching coral species. Electronic supplementary material  The online version of this article (doi:) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.     

Simulated potential effects of ecological factors on a hypothetical population of Chiricahua leopard frog (Rana chiricahuensis)

Simulations provide an opportunity to examine how single or multiple perturbations may impact a specific species. The objectives of this study were to identify thresholds at which changes in stream peak flow, stream base flow, and/or chytrid fungus presence alter long-term Rana chiricahuensis populations. We used scenarios with varying peak flow mortality rates, base flow mortality rates, and chytrid fungus mortality rates. Sensitivity analysis was also conducted. Over 50 years, populations in six scenarios increased and 13 scenarios decreased. Eight scenarios resulting with fewer than 100 individuals included stochastic effects for at least two of three perturbations and the remaining scenarios included chronic effects of 30% or higher. Scenarios with population increases had either no chytrid fungus effect or chronic effects from perturbations totaling less than 30%. In the absence of chytrid fungus, populations increased and became stable. At a 10% annual death rate caused by chytrid fungus, the R. chiricahuensis population decreased 46.8%. At a 20% death rate, the population decreased 98.6%. Model scenarios were sensitive to peak flow death rates. As peak flow mortality increased to 10 and 20%, extinction rates increased to 91.7 and 99.9%, respectively. With model parameters and the no base flow mortality, R. chiricahuensis populations declined by 92% with a 3.2% extinction rate at 50 years. Models with base flow mortality rates of 10 and 20% resulted in population extinction rates of 48.7 and 96.1%, respectively. Scenario analysis of perturbations on a hypothetical R. chiricahuensis population provided a framework in which to view combined effects on a species. Analysis supports supposition that chytrid fungus is the proximate cause of many amphibian declines, but the added effect of base flow and peak flow has the potential to hasten declines.     

Spatial pattern and persistence of historical fire boundaries in southern interior British Columbia

Recent ecosystem and fire management research aims to quantify, model and understand historical fire disturbances focusing on their frequency, size and distribution. Less attention, however, has been paid to fire boundaries and their location on the landscape. Our study presents a spatial method to quantify the location, pattern and persistence of historical fire boundaries using tree ring fire scar data in the lower Stein watershed (British Columbia). Data from Pinus ponderosa and Pseudotsuga menziesii collected in 35 one-hectare plots over a 412-hectare study area were analyzed for the period between 1879 and 1947 using local spatial statistics and boundary detection techniques. Results of the analysis using local spatial statistic Moran’s I showed significant clustering of boundaries near topographic breaks. To determine and test whether fire boundaries between plots were persistent, we used boundary detection methods and developed a spatially restricted randomization test. The results revealed that out of 86 possible boundary links, 8 were significantly persistent (P < 0.025) while another 8 were significantly rare (P < 0.025). These spatial methods can help determine the historical spatial configuration of persistent boundaries and can be used to maintain natural forest dynamics.