Controlling range expansion in habitat networks by adaptively targeting source populations

Controlling the spread of invasive species, pests, and pathogens is often logistically limited to interventions that target specific locations at specific periods. However, in complex, highly connected systems, such as marine environments connected by ocean currents, populations spread dynamically in both space and time via transient connectivity links. This results in nondeterministic future distributions of species in which local populations emerge dynamically and concurrently over a large area. The challenge, therefore, is to choose intervention locations that will maximize the effectiveness of the control efforts. We propose a novel method to manage dynamic species invasions and outbreaks that identifies the intervention locations most likely to curtail population expansion by selectively targeting local populations most likely to expand their future range. Critically, at any point during the development of the invasion or outbreak, the method identifies the local intervention that maximizes the long‐term benefit across the ecosystem by restricting species’ potential to spread. In so doing, the method adaptively selects the intervention targets under dynamically changing circumstances. To illustrate the effectiveness of the method we applied it to controlling the spread of crown‐of‐thorns starfish (Acanthaster sp.) outbreaks across Australia's Great Barrier Reef. Application of our method resulted in an 18‐fold relative improvement in management outcomes compared with a random targeting of reefs in putative starfish control scenarios. Although we focused on applying the method to reducing the spread of an unwanted species, it can also be used to facilitate the spread of desirable species through connectivity networks. For example, the method could be used to select those fragments of habitat most likely to rebuild a population if they were sufficiently well protected.     

Fecal contamination in irrigation water and microbial quality of vegetable primary production in urban farms of Metro Manila,Philippines

Microbial contamination of fresh produce can present a severe risk to public health. By conducting a rigorous survey of irrigation waters, the impacts of fecal contamination on the quality of produce could be assessed. In this study, surface waters were observed to be contaminated with Escherichia coli, Salmonella spp., and somatic coliphages. Culture methods show that out of 373 irrigation water, soil, and vegetable samples collected for a 1-year period, 232 (62.20%) were found positive for E. coli, 213 (57.26%) for somatic coliphages, and 2 (0.53%) for Salmonella spp. Out of 190 water samples, 167 (87.9%) were found to have E.coli, 174 (91.6%) have somatic coliphages, and 1 (0.5%) with Salmonella spp. In soil samples, 36 of 91 (39.6%) have E. coli, 31 (34.0%) have somatic coliphages, and none with Salmonella spp. Lastly, out of 92 vegetable samples, 29 (31.5%), 8 (8.7%), and 1 (1.1%) were found to have E. coli, somatic coliphages, and Salmonella spp., respectively. Molecular analysis confirmed the presence of bacterial contaminants. Seasonal weather conditions were noted to have an effect on the presence and number of these fecal indicator organisms. The observed data suggest that contaminated irrigation water may greatly affect the quality of fresh produce from these agricultural operations.     

A robust design capture-recapture model with multiple age classes augmented with population assignment data

The relative contribution of in situ reproduction versus immigration to the recruitment process is important to ecologists. Here we consider a robust design superpopulation capture-recapture model for a population with two age classes augmented with population assignment data. We first use age information to estimate the entry probabilities of new animals originating via in situ reproduction and immigration separately for all except the first period. Then we combine age and population assignment information with the capture-recapture model, which enables us to estimate the entry probability of in situ births and the entry probability of immigrants separately for all sampling periods. Further, this augmentation of age specific capture-recapture data with population assignment data greatly improves the estimators’ precision. We apply our new model to a capture-recapture data set with genetic information for banner-tailed kangaroo rats in Southern Arizona. We find that many more individuals are born in situ than are immigrants for all time periods. Young animals have lower survival probabilities than adults born in situ. Adult animals born in situ have higher survival probabilities than adults that were immigrants.     

The moderating effects of political skill on the perceived politics–outcome relationships

Previous research has established that perceptions of organizational politics are associated with negative organizational outcomes. However, this may not hold true for all individuals. We offer subordinate and supervisor political skill, the ability to understand interactions at work and to use that understanding to effectively influence others, as possible moderators. Specifically, this study investigates the impact of both employees' self‐rated political skill and their managers' political skill on job satisfaction, job performance, and manager‐rated commitment. We examined these relationships in an organizational sample of 106 matched dyadic pairs and found mixed support for the joint moderating effect of self and manager political skill on the politics perceptions‐outcome relationships. Strengths, limitations, and directions for future research are discussed. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Climate change impacts on freshwater recreational fishing in the United States

We estimated the biological and economic impacts of climate change on freshwater fisheries in the United States (U.S.). Changes in stream temperatures, flows, and the spatial extent of suitable thermal habitats for fish guilds were modeled for the coterminous U.S. using a range of projected changes in temperature and precipitation caused by increased greenhouse gases (GHGs). Based on modeled shifts in available thermal habitat for fish guilds, we estimated potential economic impacts associated with changes in freshwater recreational fishing using a national-scale economic model of recreational fishing behavior. In general, the spatial distribution of coldwater fisheries is projected to contract, being replaced by warm/cool water and high-thermally tolerant, lower recreational priority (i.e., “rough”) fisheries. Changes in thermal habitat suitability become more pronounced under higher emissions scenarios and at later time periods. Under the highest GHG emissions scenario, by year 2100 habitat for coldwater fisheries is projected to decline by roughly 50 % and be largely confined to mountainous areas in the western U.S. and very limited areas of New England and the Appalachians. The economic model projects a decline in coldwater fishing days ranging from 1.25 million in 2030 to 6.42 million by 2100 and that the total present value of national economic losses to freshwater recreational fishing from 2009 to 2100 could range from $81 million to $6.4 billion, depending on the emissions scenario and the choice of discount rate.     

Nonparametric estimation of petroleum accident risk to improve environmental protection

The researchers collected and examined 10 years of petroleum-related accidents in the state capital of New York (NY) to develop a preliminary model (N = 1,005). The goal of the research was to propose an evidence-driven methodology to inform urban environmental policy making and emergency preparedness planning. Albany, NY, USA, was a preferentially selected sample site since it was a large city in an environmentally sensitive region with controversial oil–gas fracking policies being debated within government. The objective of the study was to develop a predictive model from petroleum accident data using nonparametric inferential statistical techniques to avoid the constraints inherent of normal distribution assumptions. A statistically significant model was formulated and tested, which indicated that the probability of petroleum accidents in the gas–oil industry was almost six times higher than their occurrence by people in other groups, such as electricity generation, transportation, hospitals, universities, warehouses, government, businesses, and residences.