A boreal invasion in response to climate change? Range shifts and community effects in the borderland between forest and tundra

It has been hypothesized that climate warming will allow southern species to advance north and invade northern ecosystems. We review the changes in the Swedish mammal and bird community in boreal forest and alpine tundra since the nineteenth century, as well as suggested drivers of change. Observed changes include (1) range expansion and increased abundance in southern birds, ungulates, and carnivores; (2) range contraction and decline in northern birds and carnivores; and (3) abundance decline or periodically disrupted dynamics in cyclic populations of small and medium-sized mammals and birds. The first warm spell, 1930–1960, stands out as a period of substantial faunal change. However, in addition to climate warming, suggested drivers of change include land use and other anthropogenic factors. We hypothesize all these drivers interacted, primarily favoring southern generalists. Future research should aim to distinguish between effects of climate and land-use change in boreal and tundra ecosystems.     

Past,present, and future use of phosphorus in Chinese agriculture and its influence on phosphorus losses

Large inputs of phosphorus (P) in chemical fertilizers and feed supplements since 1978 have improved soil P status in arable land in China, but have also created challenges by increasing P concentrations in manure and exacerbating water quality degradation. Arable land in China can be divided into five management zones based on soil P chemistry, with 15–92 % of arable land having lower P status than the agronomic optimum and 0.3–7.2 % having severe risks of P leaching losses. A scenario analysis of soil P budget and agronomic P demand during 2011–2030 highlighted the great pressure China faces in sustainable P management and the need for drastic changes in current practices. This includes new policies to reduce P supplementation of feed and improved P use efficiency by livestock and programs to expand the adoption of appropriate fertilization, soil conservation, and drainage management practices to minimize P losses.     

Developing an analytical framework for assessing progress toward ecosystem-based management

Ecosystem-based management (EBM) has become a key instrument of contemporary environmental policy and practice. Given the increasingly important role of EBM, there is an urgent need for improved analytical approaches to assess if and to what extent EBM has been accomplished in any given case. Drawing on the vast literature on EBM, we identify five key ecosystem aspects for assessment. By linking these aspects to four phases of management, we develop an interdisciplinary, analytical framework that enables a high-resolution and systematic assessment of the degree of specificity and integration of ecosystem aspects in an EBM. We then apply the framework to evaluate five coastal EBM initiatives in Sweden, four on the Baltic coast and one on the west coast. Our results demonstrate our framework’s usefulness for in-depth and continuous assessments of processes aiming for EBM, and also provide an empirical basis for inferences about the key challenges for successful EBM.     

Screening risk areas for sediment and phosphorus losses to improve placement of mitigation measures

Identification of vulnerable arable areas to phosphorus (P) losses is needed to effectively implement mitigation measures. Indicators for source (soil test P, STP), potential mobilization by erosion (soil dispersion), and transport (unit-stream power length-slope, LS) risks were used to screen the vulnerability to suspended solids (SS) and P losses in two contrasting catchments regarding topography, soil textural distribution, and STP. Soils in the first catchment ranged from loamy sand to clay loam, while clay soils were dominant in the second catchment. Long-term SS and total P losses were higher in the second catchment in spite of significantly lower topsoil STP. A higher proportion of areas in the second catchment were identified with higher risk due to the significantly higher risk of overland flow generation (LS) and a significantly higher mobilization risk in the soil dispersion laboratory tests. A simple screening method was presented to improve the placement of mitigation measures.     

Comprehensive Environmental Investigation at Former Industrial/Petroleum Underground Storage Tank Sites in Long Beach,CA: A Forensic Perspective

Two industrial sites were investigated based on years of available hydrogeologic information and monitoring data for soil and groundwater. Collected data were forensically evaluated using age-dating and fingerprinting methods. The previous business uses of the project sites were as a gas station, laundry/dry-cleaning service, and car wash with petroleum underground storage tanks (USTs). As a result, these sites were exposed to a number of toxic contaminants at relatively high concentrations. Source control was necessary for successful remediation and the ultimate removal of the remaining compounds from these industrial sites. Although contaminated soil around the source was excavated during the remedial action and the high concentrations of contaminants were reduced, typical groundwater contaminants such as petroleum hydrocarbons as gasoline (TPH-G), benzene, toluene, ethylbenzene, xylenes (BTEX), and oxygenates including methyl tert-butyl ether (MTBE), diisopropyl ether (DIPE), ethyl tert-butyl ether (ETBE), tert-amyl methyl ether (TAME), and tert-butyl alcohol (TBA) were persistently found at the studied sites around the source points. The plume and concentration of contaminants had changed their shapes and strength for all monitoring periods. Thus, additional source control seems to be a requirement for the complete removal of source contamination, which must be ascertained with groundwater and soil monitoring on a regular time base. For the study sites, monitored natural attenuation was relatively feasible for the long-term plan; however, it did not offer a perfect remediation solution for an ultimate goal because of residual toxic compounds that might have affected the surrounding residential areas at higher concentrations than their health limits. Therefore, as a remediation strategy, the combination of clean-up technology and natural attenuation with monitoring activities are more highly recommended than either clean-up or natural attenuation used separately.     

Effects of calibration on L-THIA GIS runoff and pollutant estimation

Urbanization can result in alteration of a watershed's hydrologic response and water quality. To simulate hydrologic and water quality impacts of land use changes, the Long-Term Hydrologic Impact Assessment (L-THIA) system has been used. The L-THIA system estimates pollutant loading based on direct runoff quantity and land use based pollutant coefficients. The accurate estimation of direct runoff is important in assessing water quality impacts of land use changes. An automated program was developed to calibrate the L-THIA model using the millions of curve number (CN) combinations associated with land uses and hydrologic soil groups. L-THIA calibration for the Little Eagle Creek (LEC) watershed near Indianapolis, Indiana was performed using land use data for 1991 and daily rainfall data for six months of 1991 (January 1-June 30) to minimize errors associated with use of different temporal land use data and rainfall data. For the calibration period, the Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient was 0.60 for estimated and observed direct runoff. The calibrated CN values were used for validation of the model for the same year (July 1-December 31), and the Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient was 0.60 for estimated and observed direct runoff. The Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient was 0.52 for January 1, 1991 to December 31, 1991 using uncalibrated CN values. As shown in this study, the use of better input parameters for the L-THIA model can improve accuracy. The effects on direct runoff and pollutant estimation of the calibrated CN values in the L-THIA model were investigated for the LEC. Following calibration, the estimated average annual direct runoff for the LEC watershed increased by 34%, total nitrogen by 24%, total phosphorus by 22%, and total lead by 43%. This study demonstrates that the L-THIA model should be calibrated and validated prior to application in a particular watershed to more accurately assess the effects of land use changes on hydrology and water quality.     

Fish mercury increase in Lago Manso, a new hydroelectric reservoir in tropical Brazil

It has been frequently demonstrated that mercury (Hg) concentrations in fish rise in newly constructed hydroelectric reservoirs in the Northern Hemisphere. In the present work, we studied whether similar effects take place also in a tropical upland reservoir during impoundment and discuss possible causes and implications. Total Hg concentrations in fish and several soil and water parameters were determined before and after flooding at Rio Manso hydroelectric power plant in western Brazil. The Hg concentrations in soil and sediment were within the background levels in the region (22-35 ng g(-1) dry weight). There was a strong positive correlation between Hg and carbon and sulphur in sediment. Predatory fish had total Hg concentrations ranging between 70 and 210 ng g(-1) f.w. 7 years before flooding and between 72 and 755 ng g(-1) f.w. during flooding, but increased to between 216 and 938 ng g(-1) f.w. in the piscivorous and carnivorous species Pseudoplatystoma fasciatum, cachara, and Salminus brasiliensis, dourado, 3 years after flooding. At the same time, concentrations of organic carbon in the water increased and oxygen concentrations decreased, indicating increased decomposition and anoxia as contributing to the increased Hg concentrations in fish. The present fish Hg concentrations in commonly consumed piscivorous species are a threat to the health of the population dependent on fishing in the dam and downstream river for sustenance. Mercury exposure can be reduced by following fish consumption recommendations until fish Hg concentrations decrease to a safe level.     

Emergence of Indigenous Vegetation Classifications Through Integration of Traditional Ecological Knowledge and Remote Sensing Analyses

Traditional ecological knowledge (TEK) can play an important role in the understanding of ecological systems. Although TEK has complemented scientific and managerial programs in a variety of contexts, its formal incorporation into remote sensing exercises has to date been limited. Here, we show that the vegetation classifications of the Ache, an indigenous hunter-gatherer tribe of the Mbaracayu Forest Reserve in Paraguay, are reflected in a supervised classification of satellite imagery of the reserve. Accuracy of classification was toward the low end of the range of published values, but was reasonable given the difficult nature of separating forest classes from satellite images. Comparison of the resultant map with a more traditionally elaborated vegetation map highlights differences between the two approaches and the gain in information obtained by considering TEK classifications. We suggest that integration of TEK and remote sensing may provide alternative insights into the ecology of vegetation communities and land cover, particularly in remote and densely forested areas where ecological field research is often limited by roads and/or trail systems.     

Optimization of capture–recapture monitoring of elusive species illustrated with a threatened grasshopper

Information on population sizes and trends of threatened species is essential for their conservation, but obtaining reliable estimates can be challenging. We devised a method to improve the precision of estimates of population size obtained from capture–recapture studies for species with low capture and recapture probabilities and short seasonal activity, illustrated with population data of an elusive grasshopper (Prionotropis rhodanica). We used data from 5 capture–recapture studies to identify methodological and environmental factors affecting capture and recapture probabilities and estimates of population size. In a simulation, we used the population size and capture and recapture probability estimates obtained from the field studies to identify the minimum number of sampling occasions needed to obtain unbiased and robust estimates of population size. Based on these results we optimized the capture–recapture design, implemented it in 2 additional studies, and compared their precision with those of the nonoptimized studies. Additionally, we simulated scenarios based on thresholds of population size in criteria C and D of the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List to investigate whether estimates of population size for elusive species can reliably inform red-list assessments. Identifying parameters that affect capture and recapture probabilities (for the grasshopper time since emergence of first adults) and optimizing field protocols based on this information reduced study effort (−6% to −27% sampling occasions) and provided more precise estimates of population size (reduced coefficient of variation) compared with nonoptimized studies. Estimates of population size from the scenarios based on the IUCN thresholds were mostly unbiased and robust (only the combination of very small populations and little study effort produced unreliable estimates), suggesting capture–recapture can be considered reliable for informing red-list assessments. Although capture–recapture remains difficult and costly for elusive species, our optimization procedure can help determine efficient protocols to increase data quality and minimize monitoring effort.