Urban Flood Damage and Greenhouse Scenarios - The Implications for Policy: An Example from Australia

Urban flooding is often used as an illustration of the potentially adverse effects of greenhouse-induced climate change on extreme events. There is however, a paucity of studies that convert climate scenarios into changes in flood damage. This account summarises the use of modelling techniques, for three flood prone urban catchments in south eastern Australia, to assess changes to urban flood losses for the 'most wet' and 'most dry' scenarios for the year 2070. The most wet scenario indicates that annual average flood damage could increase within the range of 2.5 to 10 times, under the most dry scenario flood regimes would be similar to those experienced at present. The socio-economic scenarios based on the changes to flood losses are used to consider policy responses. It is unlikely that many local government authorities will respond because of lack of interest and because of major changes to the climate scenarios proposed over the last decade. Any response is likely to be incremental and accord with the 'no regrets' and the precautionary principle'.     

Latest precambrian (Cadomian) zircon ages, Nd isotopic systematics and P-T evolution of granitoid orthogneisses of the Erzgebirge, Saxony and Czech Republic

Single zircons from two orthogneiss complexes, the Grey Gneiss and Red Gneiss, the lowermost tectonic units in the Erzgebirge, were dated. The grey Freiberg Gneiss is of igneous origin and has a ²⁰⁷Pb/²⁰⁶Pb emplacement age of 550±7 Ma. A quartz monzonite from Lauenstein contains idiomorphic zircons with a mean ²⁰⁷Pb/²⁰⁶Pb age of 555±7 Ma as well as xenocrysts ranging in age between 850 and 1910 Ma. Red gneisses from the central Erzgebirge contain complex zircon populations, including numerous xenocrysts up to 2464 Ma in age. The youngest, idiomorphic, zircons in all samples yielded uniform ²⁰⁷Pb/²⁰⁶Pb ages between 550±9 and 554±10 Ma. Nd isotopic data support the interpretation of crustal anatexis for the origin of both units. _Nd(t) values for the grey gneisses are –7.5 and –6.0 respectively, (mean crustal residence ages of 1.7–1.8 Ga). The red gneisses have a wider range in _Nd(t) values from –7.7 to –2.8 (T _DM ages of 1.4–1.8 Ga). The zircon ages document a distinct late Proterozoic phase of granitoid magmatism, similar in age to granitoids in the Lusatian block farther north-east. However, Palaeozoic deformation as well as medium pressure metamorphism ( 8 kbar/600–650° C) are identical in both gneiss units and distinguish these rocks from the Lusatian granitoids. The grey and red gneisses were overthrust by units with abundant high-pressure relicts and a contrasting P-T evolution. Zircon xenocryst and Nd model ages in the range 1000–1700 Ma are similar to those in granitoid rocks of Lusatia and the West-Sudetes, and document a pre-Cadomian basement in parts of east-central Europe that, chronologically, has similarities with the Sveconorwegian domain in the Baltic Shield.     

Enhanced twin pregnancy detection within an open neural tube defect and down syndrome screening protocol using free-beta hCG and AFP

We have applied our multimarker approach of maternal serum alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) and free-beta human chorionic gonadotropin (hCG) for Down syndrome screening to multiple gestations to assess its efficacy for improved detection of twin and triplet pregnancies. This study matched 225 cases of twin pregnancy and 39 cases of triplet pregnancy each with ten singleton pregnancies based on gestational week, race, time to receive sample, time of year of sample, and geographical area. The ratios of the MOM for each group at the tenth, 50th, and 90th percentiles were compared by the Wilcoxon test. Risks for twins were calculated using Bayes' rule, the age-related incidence of twins, and the levels of AFP and free-beta hCG. The tenth, 50th, and 90th percentiles of free-beta hCG MOMs in twin and triplet cases were 0.85, 1.99, and 4.51, and 1.38, 2.78, and 4.07, respectively. For AFP, the MOMs at these percentiles were 1.26, 1.91, and 2.99, and 2.02, 2.68, and 5.30, respectively. The twin and triplet distributions for each marker were statistically significantly different from the singleton distributions (P<0.0001) and from each other (P=0.0012). At a twin risk cut-off of 1 in 50, 77.4 per cent of all twin gestations can be detected in a second-trimester AFP and free-beta hCG screening protocol with 5.1 per cent of singleton pregnancies falsely identified as at risk for twins. Our dual marker protocol for mid-trimester pregnancy screening combining AFP and free-beta hCG can identify over 77 per cent of twin pregnancies in women less than 35 years of age. This benefit may contribute to an improved outcome of pregnancy by early detection of multiple gestation.     

The association between alpha-fetoprotein and βhcg levels prior to and following chorionic villus sampling in cases that spontaneously miscarried

Maternal serum alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) and beta-human chorionic gonadotropin (βhCG) measurements taken prior to chorionic villus sampling (CVS) in 21 patients who subsequently miscarried were compared with measurements in a control group of 113 patients with uneventful pregnancies. Patients with AFP levels of 10 iu/ml or more prior to the CVS had a 4·3 times greater risk of miscarriage (95 per cent confidence interval 1·3–13·6). AFP levels obtained 1 week after the CVS in the 13 patients with late miscarriages were higher than in the control group (P = 0·06). Patients miscarrying had a greater rise in AFP (P = 0·06) and a greater fall in βhCG levels (P = 0·04) following the CVS procedure, compared with the control subjects. Each 10-unit change in the difference between AFP or βhCG levels prior to and 1 week following the CVS was associated with a significantly increased risk for late miscarriage. Elevated maternal serum AFP levels early in pregnancy and changes in AFP and βhCG levels following CVS may predict an increased risk for subsequent miscarriage.