Meeting emission targets under uncertainty—the case of Finnish non-emission-trading sector

The European Union (EU) has set a target to reduce its greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions at least 10 % below the 2005 levels by 2020 in the non-Emission Trading Sector (non-ETS). As part of this, each Member State has a binding national emission limitation target for the non-ETS sector. Finland’s target, examined as a case study in this paper, is to reduce emissions at least 16 % below 2005 levels by 2020. The objective of this study is to find cost optimal mitigation portfolios that meet Finland’s reduction target and to analyze the risks of not attaining the emission target or exceeding the assumed costs. The question was addressed with a stochastic optimization model, Stochastic Optimization of non-ETS Emissions (SONETS) selecting separate mitigation measures that meet the target on expectation. The results show that optimal portfolios include relatively high uncertainty both in costs and achieved reductions. The prices of crude oil and diesel, and the abatement cost of reducing hydrofluorocarbon (HFC) emissions seem to account for the majority of uncertainty regarding total costs. The baseline predictions for various non-ETS subsectors (such as transport and agriculture) were found to have the greatest contribution to the uncertainty of attaining emission target. The results also show that some abatement actions are chosen in nearly all efficient portfolios, while other actions are seldom chosen. For example replacing oil burners in the end of technical life time or recovery of methane (CH₄) from waste are often chosen whereas ban of landfilling of organic waste is chosen extremely seldom. It also seems that the results are somewhat sensitive to the inclusion or exclusion of the interdependencies of mitigation measures.     

Impact analysis of drought, water excess and salinity on grass production in The Netherlands using historical and future climate data

The coupled SWAP-WOFOST model was used to study the effects of increasing salinity of groundwater, drought and water excess on grass production in The Netherlands. WOFOST simulates crop growth and SWAP simulates transport of water, solutes and heat in the vadose zone. The model was tested using several datasets from field experiments. We applied the models at regional scale where we quantified the impact of various groundwater salinity levels on grass growth and production using historical weather data (1971-2000). The salt concentrations in the subsoil were derived from the National Hydrological Instrument. The results show that salinity effects on grass production are limited. In wet years the excess rainfall will infiltrate the soil and reduce salt water seepage. In a next step we used future weather data for the year 2050, derived from 3 Global Circulation Models. From each model we used data from two CO₂ emission scenarios. As expected higher temperatures increased drought stress, however, the production reduction as a result of salt water in the root zone is limited. Salt stress mainly occurred when irrigation was applied with saline water. The increased CO₂ concentration in combination with the limited drought stress resulted in increasing simulated actual and potential yields. Overall conclusion for grassland in The Netherlands: drought stress is stronger than stress caused by water excess which on its turn is stronger than salinity stress. Future water demand for irrigation may increase by 11-19% and result in water scarcity if water supply is insufficient.     

Trends in the spatial and temporal distribution of 129I and 99Tc in coastal waters surrounding Ireland using Fucus vesiculosus as a bio-indicator

Spatial and temporal trends in (129)I and (99)Tc concentrations around the Irish coastline have been evaluated using Fucus vesiculosus as a bio-indicator. (129)I concentrations in a recent set of seawater samples have also been recorded and reveal an identical spatial pattern. Concentrations of (129)I in Fucus from the northeast coast of Ireland proved to be at least two orders of magnitude higher than concentrations in Fucus from the west coast. The (129)I content of Fucus increased significantly between 1985 and 2003, in line with increases in discharges of (129)I from the Sellafield nuclear reprocessing plant. Similar trends were observed in the case of (99)Tc. (129)I/(99)Tc ratios in Irish seawater were deduced from the Fucus data, and compared to ratios in discharges from Sellafield and from the French reprocessing plant at Cap de la Hague. Levels of (129)I and (99)Tc in Fucus from the west coast were found to be enhanced with respect to levels in seaweeds from other regions in the Northern Hemisphere unaffected by discharges from nuclear installations such as those referred to.     

Cladocerans under conditions of small river damming by man and beavers

In beaver ponds, the species diversity, abundance, biomass, and production of cladocerans and the amount of food consumed by them have increased and the composition of dominant species has changed as compared to those in the stretches of small rivers with running water or dammed by man. The stimulating effect of water from a beaver pond has been confirmed in laboratory experiments. The average number of juvenile Ceriodaphnia affinis produced by one female was considerably greater in this water than in the water from flowing and dammed (by man) river stretches.     

Specific features of phenetic structure of the terrestrial snail <Emphasis Type="Italic">Cepaea vindobonensis</Emphasis> (Pulmonata; Helicidae) in urbanized and natural populations

The phenetic structure of natural and urbanized populations of the terrestrial snail Cepaea vindobonensis has been studied with respect to polymorphism in the shell-band color and pattern. It is noted that C. vindobonensis snails populating different artificial habitats in the city of Nikolaev and its suburbs are characterized by a higher level of both intra-and interpopulation diversity with respect to the type of this polymorphism. In addition, urban populations show a very wide range of variation in the frequencies of particular morphs or their groups. Conversely, natural populations are characterized by a more uniform frequency structure with respect to polymorphism of the shell banding pattern.     

Co-digestion of sewage sludge with glycerol to boost biogas production

The feasibility of adding crude glycerol from the biodiesel industry to the anaerobic digesters treating sewage sludge in wastewater treatment plants was studied in both batch and continuous experiments at 35 °C. Glycerol addition can boost biogas yields, if it does not exceed a limiting 1% (v/v) concentration in the feed. Any further increase of glycerol causes a high imbalance in the anaerobic digestion process. The reactor treating the sewage sludge produced 1106 ± 36 ml CH₄/d before the addition of glycerol and 2353 ± 94 ml CH₄/d after the addition of glycerol (1% v/v in the feed). The extra glycerol-COD added to the feed did not have a negative effect on reactor performance, but seemed to increase the active biomass (volatile solids) concentration in the system. Batch kinetic experiments showed that the maximum specific utilization rate (μ_max) and the saturation constant (K_S) of glycerol were 0.149 ± 0.015 h^?1 and 0.276 ± 0.095 g/l, respectively. Comparing the estimated values with the kinetics constants for propionate reported in the literature, it can be concluded that glycerol uptake is not the rate-limiting step during the process.     

Temperature adaptation of the heart in the grass snake (Natrix natrix L.), common European viper (Vipera berus L.), and steppe viper (Vipera renardi Christoph) (Reptilia: Squamata: Serpentes)

Changes in the heart rate (HR) in more and less thermophilic reptiles (Natrix natrix L., Vipera berus L., and V. renardi Christoph) exposed to heating from 0 to 40°C under anesthesia have been found to depend on the previous adaptation of the animals to the temperature parameters characteristic of the natural habitats of their populations.     

The problem of estimating recent genetic connectivity in a changing world

Accurate understanding of population connectivity is important to conservation because dispersal can play an important role in population dynamics, microevolution, and assessments of extirpation risk and population rescue. Genetic methods are increasingly used to infer population connectivity because advances in technology have made them more advantageous (e.g., cost effective) relative to ecological methods. Given the reductions in wildlife population connectivity since the Industrial Revolution and more recent drastic reductions from habitat loss, it is important to know the accuracy of and biases in genetic connectivity estimators when connectivity has declined recently. Using simulated data, we investigated the accuracy and bias of 2 common estimators of migration (movement of individuals among populations) rate. We focused on the timing of the connectivity change and the magnitude of that change on the estimates of migration by using a coalescent‐based method (Migrate‐n) and a disequilibrium‐based method (BayesAss). Contrary to expectations, when historically high connectivity had declined recently: (i) both methods over‐estimated recent migration rates; (ii) the coalescent‐based method (Migrate‐n) provided better estimates of recent migration rate than the disequilibrium‐based method (BayesAss); (iii) the coalescent‐based method did not accurately reflect long‐term genetic connectivity. Overall, our results highlight the problems with comparing coalescent and disequilibrium estimates to make inferences about the effects of recent landscape change on genetic connectivity among populations. We found that contrasting these 2 estimates to make inferences about genetic‐connectivity changes over time could lead to inaccurate conclusions.