Modeling Inorganic Aerosols and Their Response to Changes in Precursor Concentration in Mexico City

Abstract

Based on data from the 1997 Investigación sobre Materia Particulada y Deterioro Atmosférico-Aerosol and Visibility Evaluation Research (IMADA-EVER) campaign and the inorganic aerosol model ISORROPIA, the response of inorganic aerosols to changes in precursor concentrations was calculated. The aerosol behavior is dominated by the abundance of ammonia and thus, changes in ammonia concentration are expected to have a small effect on particle concentrations. Changes in sulfate and nitrate are expected to lead to proportional reductions in inorganic fine particulate matter (PM_2.5). Comparing the predictions of ISORROPIA with the observations, the lowest bias and error are achieved when the aerosols are assumed to be in the efflorescence branch. Including crustal species reduces the bias and error for nitrate but does not improve overall model performance. The estimated response of inorganic PM_2.5 to changes in precursor concentrations is affected by the inclusion of crustal species in some cases, although average responses are comparable with and without crustal species. Observed concentrations of particle chloride suggest that gas phase concentrations of hydrogen chloride may not be negligible, and future measurement campaigns should include observations to test this hypothesis. Our ability to model aerosol behavior in Mexico City and, thus, design control strategies, is constrained primarily by a lack of observations of gas phase precursors. Future campaigns should focus in particular on better understanding the temporal and spatial distribution of ammonia concentrations. In addition, gas phase observations of nitric acid are needed, and a measure of particle water content will allow stable versus metastable aerosol behavior to be distinguished.     

Integrated Assessment Modeling of Atmospheric Pollutants in the Southern Appalachian Mountains. Part I: Hourly and Seasonal Ozone

Abstract

Recently, a comprehensive air quality modeling system was developed as part of the Southern Appalachians Mountains Initiative (SAMI) with the ability to simulate meteorology, emissions, ozone, size- and composition-resolved particulate matter, and pollutant deposition fluxes. As part of SAMI, the RAMS/EMS-95/URM-1ATM modeling system was used to evaluate potential emission control strategies to reduce atmospheric pollutant levels at Class I areas located in the Southern Appalachians Mountains. This article discusses the details of the ozone model performance and the methodology that was used to scale discrete episodic pollutant levels to seasonal and annual averages. The daily mean normalized bias and error for 1-hr and 8-hr ozone were within U.S. Environment Protection Agency guidance criteria for urban-scale modeling. The model typically showed a systematic overestimation for low ozone levels and an underestimation for high levels. Because SAMI was primarily interested in simulating the growing season ozone levels in Class I areas, daily and seasonal cumulative ozone exposure, as characterized by the W126 index, were also evaluated. The daily ozone W126 performance was not as good as the hourly ozone performance; however, the seasonal ozone W126 scaled up from daily values was within 17% of the observations at two typical Class I areas of the SAMI region. The overall ozone performance of the model was deemed acceptable for the purposes of SAMI’s assessment.     

A Method of Predicting Point and Path- Averaged Ambient Air VOC Concentrations,Using Meteorological Data

A method of predicting point and path-averaged ambient air VOC concentrations is described. This method was developed for the case of a plume generated from a single point source, and is based on the relationship between wind directional frequency and concentration. One-minute means of wind direction and wind speed were used as inputs to a Gaussian dispersion model to develop this relationship.

Both FTIR spectrometry and a whole-air sampling method were used to monitor VOC plumes during simulated field tests. One test set was also conducted using only whole-air samplers deployed in a closely-spaced network, thus providing an evaluation of the prediction technique free of any bias that might exist between the two analytical methods.

Correlations between observed point concentrations and wind directional frequencies were significant at the 0.05 level in most cases. Predicted path-integrated concentrations, based on observed point concentrations and meteorological data, were strongly correlated with observed values. Predicted point concentrations, based on observed path-integrated concentrations and meteorological data, accurately reflected the location and magnitude of the highest concentrations from each test, as well as the shape of the concentration-versus-crosswind distance curve.     

The Emissions and Dispersion Modeling System (EDMS): Its Development and Application at Airports and Airbases

A new complex source microcomputer model has been developed for use at civil airports and Air Force bases. This paper describes both the key features of this model and its application in evaluating the air quality impact of new construction projects at three airports: one in the United States and two in Canada.

The single EDMS model replaces the numerous models previously required to assess the air quality impact of pollution sources at airports. EDMS also employs a commercial data base to reduce the time and manpower required to accurately assess and document the air quality impact of airfield operations.

On July 20, 1993, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) issued the final rule (Federal Register, 7/20/93, page 38816) to add new models to the Guideline on Air Quality Models. At that time EDMS was incorporated into the Guideline as an Appendix A model.     

Assessing watershed transport of atrazine and nitrate to evaluate conservation practice effects and advise future monitoring strategies

Continued public support for U.S. taxpayer funded programs aimed at reducing agricultural pollutants depends on clear demonstrations of water quality improvements. The objective of this research was to determine if implementation of agricultural best management practices (BMPs) in the Goodwater Creek Experimental Watershed (GCEW) resulted in changes to atrazine and nitrate (NO₃–N) loads during storm events. An additional objective was to estimate future monitoring periods necessary to detect a 5, 10, 20, and 25% reduction in atrazine and NO₃–N event load. The GCEW is a 73 km² watershed located in northcentral Missouri, USA. Linear regressions and Akaike Information Criteria were used to determine if reductions in atrazine and NO₃–N event loads occurred as BMPs were implemented. No effects due to any BMP type were indicated for the period of record. Further investigation of event sampling from the long-term GCEW monitoring program indicated errors in atrazine load calculations may be possible due to pre-existing minimum threshold levels used to trigger autosampling and sample compositing. Variation of event loads was better explained by linear regressions for NO₃–N than for atrazine. Decommissioning of upstream monitoring stations during the study period represented a missed opportunity to further explain variation of event loads at the watershed outlet. Atrazine requires approximately twice the monitoring period relative to NO₃–N to detect future reductions in event load. Appropriate matching of pollutant transport mechanisms with autosampling protocols remains a critical information need when setting up or adapting watershed monitoring networks aimed at detecting watershed-scale BMP effects.     

Assessing the Potential for Salmon Recovery via Floodplain Restoration: A Multitrophic Level Comparison of Dredge-Mined to Reference Segments

Pre-restoration studies typically focus on physical habitat, rather than the food-base that supports aquatic species. However, both food and habitat are necessary to support the species that habitat restoration is frequently aimed at recovering. Here we evaluate if and how the productivity of the food-base that supports fish production is impaired in a dredge-mined floodplain within the Yankee Fork Salmon River (YFSR), Idaho (USA); a site where past restoration has occurred and where more has been proposed to help recover anadromous salmonids. Utilizing an ecosystem approach, we found that the dredged segment had comparable terrestrial leaf and invertebrate inputs, aquatic primary producer biomass, and production of aquatic invertebrates relative to five reference floodplains. Thus, the food-base in the dredged segment did not necessarily appear impaired. On the other hand, we observed that off-channel aquatic habitats were frequently important to productivity in reference floodplains, and the connection of these habitats in the dredged segment via previous restoration increased invertebrate productivity by 58%. However, using a simple bioenergetic model, we estimated that the invertebrate food-base was at least 4× larger than present demand for food by fish in dredged and reference segments. In the context of salmon recovery efforts, this observation questions whether additional food-base productivity provided by further habitat restoration would be warranted in the YFSR. Together, our findings highlight the importance of studies that assess the aquatic food-base, and emphasize the need for more robust ecosystem models that evaluate factors potentially limiting fish populations that are the target of restoration.     

Estimating the Cumulative Ecological Effect of Local Scale Landscape Changes in South Florida

Ecosystem restoration in south Florida is a state and national priority centered on the Everglades wetlands. However, urban development pressures affect the restoration potential and remaining habitat functions of the natural undeveloped areas. Land use (LU) planning often focuses at the local level, but a better understanding of the cumulative effects of small projects at the landscape level is needed to support ecosystem restoration and preservation. The South Florida Ecosystem Portfolio Model (SFL EPM) is a regional LU planning tool developed to help stakeholders visualize LU scenario evaluation and improve communication about regional effects of LU decisions. One component of the SFL EPM is ecological value (EV), which is evaluated through modeled ecological criteria related to ecosystem services using metrics for (1) biodiversity potential, (2) threatened and endangered species, (3) rare and unique habitats, (4) landscape pattern and fragmentation, (5) water quality buffer potential, and (6) ecological restoration potential. In this article, we demonstrate the calculation of EV using two case studies: (1) assessing altered EV in the Biscayne Gateway area by comparing 2004 LU to potential LU in 2025 and 2050, and (2) the cumulative impact of adding limestone mines south of Miami. Our analyses spatially convey changing regional EV resulting from conversion of local natural and agricultural areas to urban, industrial, or extractive use. Different simulated local LU scenarios may result in different alterations in calculated regional EV. These case studies demonstrate methods that may facilitate evaluation of potential future LU patterns and incorporate EV into decision making.     

Effects of Trampling Limitation on Coastal Dune Plant Communities

Sandy coastlines are sensitive ecosystems where human activities can have considerable negative impacts. In particular, trampling by beach visitors is a disturbance that affects dune vegetation both at the species and community level. In this study we assess the effects of the limitation of human trampling on dune vegetation in a coastal protected area of Central Italy. We compare plant species diversity in two recently fenced sectors with that of an unfenced area (and therefore subject to human trampling) using rarefaction curves and a diversity/dominance approach during a two year study period. Our results indicate that limiting human trampling seems to be a key factor in driving changes in the plant diversity of dune systems. In 2007 the regression lines of species abundance as a function of rank showed steep slopes and high Y-intercept values in all sectors, indicating a comparable level of stress and dominance across the entire study site. On the contrary, in 2009 the regression lines of the two fenced sectors clearly diverge from that of the open sector, showing less steep slopes. This change in the slopes of the tendency lines, evidenced by the diversity/dominance diagrams and related to an increase in species diversity, suggests the recovery of plant communities in the two fences between 2007 and 2009. In general, plant communities subject to trampling tended to be poorer in species and less structured, since only dominant and tolerant plant species persisted. Furthermore, limiting trampling appears to have produced positive changes in the dune vegetation assemblage after a period of only two years. These results are encouraging for the management of coastal dune systems. They highlight how a simple and cost-effective management strategy, based on passive recovery conservation measures (i.e., fence building), can be a quick (1–2 years) and effective method for improving and safeguarding the diversity of dune plant communities.     

A Framework for Assessing Collaborative Capacity in Community-Based Public Forest Management

Community-based collaborative groups involved in public natural resource management are assuming greater roles in planning, project implementation, and monitoring. This entails the capacity of collaborative groups to develop and sustain new organizational structures, processes, and strategies, yet there is a lack of understanding what constitutes collaborative capacity. In this paper, we present a framework for assessing collaborative capacities associated with community-based public forest management in the US. The framework is inductively derived from case study research and observations of 30 federal forest-related collaborative efforts. Categories were cross-referenced with literature on collaboration across a variety of contexts. The framework focuses on six arenas of collaborative action: (1) organizing, (2) learning, (3) deciding, (4) acting, (5) evaluating, and (6) legitimizing. Within each arena are capacities expressed through three levels of social agency: individuals, the collaborative group itself, and participating or external organizations. The framework provides a language and set of organizing principles for understanding and assessing collaborative capacity in the context of community-based public forest management. The framework allows groups to assess what capacities they already have and what more is needed. It also provides a way for organizations supporting collaboratives to target investments in building and sustaining their collaborative capacities. The framework can be used by researchers as a set of independent variables against which to measure collaborative outcomes across a large population of collaborative efforts.     

The Importance of Temporal and Spatial Vegetation Structure Information in Biotope Mapping Schemes: A Case Study in Helsingborg,Sweden

Temporal and spatial vegetation structure has impact on biodiversity qualities. Yet, current schemes of biotope mapping do only to a limited extend incorporate these factors in the mapping. The purpose of this study is to evaluate the application of a modified biotope mapping scheme that includes temporal and spatial vegetation structure. A refined scheme was developed based on a biotope classification, and applied to a green structure system in Helsingborg city in southern Sweden. It includes four parameters of vegetation structure: continuity of forest cover, age of dominant trees, horizontal structure, and vertical structure. The major green structure sites were determined by interpretation of panchromatic aerial photographs assisted with a field survey. A set of biotope maps was constructed on the basis of each level of modified classification. An evaluation of the scheme included two aspects in particular: comparison of species richness between long-continuity and short-continuity forests based on identification of woodland continuity using ancient woodland indicators (AWI) species and related historical documents, and spatial distribution of animals in the green space in relation to vegetation structure. The results indicate that (1) the relationship between forest continuity: according to verification of historical documents, the richness of AWI species was higher in long-continuity forests; Simpson’s diversity was significantly different between long- and short-continuity forests; the total species richness and Shannon’s diversity were much higher in long-continuity forests shown a very significant difference. (2) The spatial vegetation structure and age of stands influence the richness and abundance of the avian fauna and rabbits, and distance to the nearest tree and shrub was a strong determinant of presence for these animal groups. It is concluded that continuity of forest cover, age of dominant trees, horizontal and vertical structures of vegetation should now be included in urban biotope classifications.