Characteristics and risks of drivers with low annual distance driven

OBJECTIVES: It has been noted by several authors that risk (defined only in terms of total expected numbers of crash involvements per total distance driven) paints a misleading picture of crash liability, particularly for the young and the old, as their high risk is associated with risky driving patterns typical of people who drive low annual kms. This article sets out to analyze these driving patterns of low-km drivers and to evaluate the risk of these patterns. As licensing programs tend to focus on young and old drivers, who tend to drive lower annual distances, income and employment data are also analyzed for low-km drivers. This is to provide a better picture for policy makers of the sort of people and the sorts of transportation requirements that their policies may affect. METHODS: Crash data and travel data were disaggregated by driver characteristics and by driving conditions (road type, day and night, weekend and weekday) and combined to form estimates of risk for typical driving patterns of driver groups. Characteristics of driving patterns and of the drivers themselves were derived for groups defined by age and by the amount of annual driving undertaken. RESULTS: Older drivers who drive less tend to have higher risk per km mainly due to their predominantly urban trips. Nevertheless, because older drivers on average manage to reduce their risk per distance driven by choosing driving patterns that are safer than the driving patterns of other age groups, the risk of older drivers as a group is not overestimated. CONCLUSION: Despite being quite different from one another, the low- and high-km driving patterns of younger drivers were found to impose identical risks.     

A Study of Computer-Based Task Performance Under Thermal Stress

A visual-visual dual computer task was designed to test the effect of the thermal environment on dual task performance. The temperatures selected for testing were 20 and 35 °C Wet Bulb Globe Temperature (WBGT). 34 volunteers were randomly assigned to 1 of the 2 temperature conditions. Individual differences in single task performance were controlled by equating the baselines of single task performance. Once individual differences in single task capacity were controlled, statistically significant differences in performance were demonstrated. Mean accuracy was computed over a 1-hr testing period in each temperature condition. Participants’ mean accuracy in the 35° condition (38.18%) was substantially lower than in the 20° condition (50.88%).     

Two-phase jet releases,droplet dispersion and rainout,II. Rainout experiments

This paper describes the results of the first experimental stage of Phase IV of a Joint Industry Project (JIP) on liquid jets and two-phase droplet dispersion. The objective of this stage of the JIP was to generate experimental rainout data for non-flashing water and xylene experiments. See the overview companion paper I for a wider overview of the problem, model implementation and associated model validation.A range of orifice sizes (2.5 and 5 mm) and stagnation pressures (4–16 barg) were applied. Measurements included flow rate, initial droplet size, plume concentrations/temperatures for a range of downstream locations, and distributed rainout.Instead of the Phase Doppler Anemometry method used for droplet size measurements earlier in the JIP, a photographic technique was applied in an attempt to include measurement of the larger (non-spherical) droplets. This enabled a more accurate evaluation of the initial droplet size distribution and a much clearer understanding of the droplet morphology. The results showed that the droplet behaviour in the jet is more complex than had been anticipated with the mass distribution dominated by a very small number of large non-spherical droplets. Consequently a large number of spray images were required to evaluate an accurate size distribution.Distributed rainout was measured by weighing the amount of rainout in trays positioned along the jet direction. The rainout results showed a good degree of repeatability and internal consistency. They indicated that an increasing proportion of the released material did not rainout for increasing pressure. Rainout distance also increased with increasing pressure. Evaporation of the liquid was confirmed by temperature measurements, which showed the effect of evaporative cooling.Xylene concentration measurements (up to 1%) were carried out using a direct reading photoionization detector calibrated for xylene (measuring vapour only). For a limited dataset, the accuracy of these measurements was estimated by means of comparison against an alternative more time-consuming concentration method (xylene absorption onto a charcoal filter; measuring both vapour and liquid). The concentration measurements displayed several consistent qualitative features. For example, at a given downstream distance, the peak concentration increases with increasing pressure and nozzle diameter and the vertical height at which the peak is achieved increases. The cross-stream profiles displayed a consistent tendency to increased concentration at the edge of the jet, and the reason for this has not been established.Finally recommendations are provided for potential future work.     

Implications of human value shift and persistence for biodiversity conservation

Large‐scale change in human values and associated behavior change is believed by some to be the ultimate solution to achieve global biodiversity conservation. Yet little is known about the dynamics of values. We contribute to this area of inquiry by examining the trajectory of values affecting views of wildlife in North America. Using data from a 19‐state study in the United States and global data from the Schwartz Value Survey, we explored questions of value persistence and change and the nature of attitudinal responses regarding wildlife conservation issues. We found support, based on subjects’ ancestry, for the supposition that domination is a prevalent American value orientation toward wildlife that has origins in European Judeo‐Christian traditions. Independent of that effect, we also found indications of change. Modernization is contributing to a shift from domination to mutualism value orientations, which is fostering attitudes less centered on human interests and seemingly more consistent with a biocentric philosophy. Our findings suggest that if value shift could be achieved in a purposeful way, then significant and widespread behavior change believed necessary for long‐term conservation success may indeed be possible. In particular, greater emphasis on mutualism values may help provide the context for more collaborative approaches to support future conservation efforts. However, given the societal forces at play, it is not at all clear that human‐engineered value shift is tenable. Instead of developing strategies aimed at altering values, it may be more productive to create strategies that recognize and work within the boundaries of existing values. Whereas values appear to be in a period of flux, it will be difficult to predict future trends without a better understanding of value formation and shift, particularly under conditions of rapid social‐ecological change.     

Nitrate and sediment fluxes from a California rangeland watershed

Long-term water quality records for assessing natural variability, impact of management, and that guide regulatory processes to safeguard water resources are rare for California oak woodland rangelands. This study presents a 20-yr record (1981-2000) of nitrate-nitrogen (NO(3)-N) and suspended sediment export from a typical, grazed oak woodland watershed (103 ha) in the northern Sierra Nevada foothills of California. Mean annual precipitation over the 20-yr period was 734 mm yr(-1) (range 366-1205 mm yr(-1)). Mean annual stream flow was 353 mm y(-1) (range 87-848 mm yr(-1)). Average annual stream flow was 48.1 +/- 16% of precipitation. Mean annual NO(3)-N export was 1.6 kg ha(-1) yr(-1) (range 0.18-3.6 kg ha(-1) yr(-1)). Annual NO(3)-N export significantly (P < 0.05) increased with increasing annual stream flow and precipitation. Mean daily NO(3)-N export was 0.004 kg ha(-1) d(-1) (range 10(-5) to 0.55 kg ha(-1) d(-1)). Mean annual suspended sediment export was 198 kg ha(-1) yr(-1) (range 23-479 kg ha(-1) yr(-1)). There was a positive relationship (P < 0.05) between annual suspended sediment export, annual stream flow and precipitation. Mean daily suspended sediment export was 0.54 kg ha(-1) d(-1) (range 10(-4) to 155 kg ha(-1) d(-1)). Virtually no sediment was exported during the dry season. The large variation in daily and annual fluxes highlights the necessity of using long-term records to establish quantitative water quality targets for rangelands and demonstrates the difficulty of designing a water quality monitoring program for these ecosystems.     

A review of vulnerability indicators for deltaic social–ecological systems

The sustainability of deltas worldwide is under threat due to the consequences of global environmental change (including climate change) and human interventions in deltaic landscapes. Understanding these systems is becoming increasingly important to assess threats to and opportunities for long-term sustainable development. Here, we propose a simplified, yet inclusive social–ecological system (SES)-centered risk and vulnerability framework and a list of indicators proven to be useful in past delta assessments. In total, 236 indicators were identified through a structured review of peer-reviewed literature performed for three globally relevant deltas—the Mekong, the Ganges–Brahmaputra–Meghna and the Amazon. These are meant to serve as a preliminary “library” of potential indicators to be used for future vulnerability assessments. Based on the reviewed studies, we identified disparities in the availability of indicators to populate some of the vulnerability domains of the proposed framework, as comprehensive social–ecological assessments were seldom implemented in the past. Even in assessments explicitly aiming to capture both the social and the ecological system, there were many more indicators for social susceptibility and coping/adaptive capacities as compared to those relevant for characterizing ecosystem susceptibility or robustness. Moreover, there is a lack of multi-hazard approaches accounting for the specific vulnerability profile of sub-delta areas. We advocate for more comprehensive, truly social–ecological assessments which respond to multi-hazard settings and recognize within-delta differences in vulnerability and risk. Such assessments could make use of the proposed framework and list of indicators as a starting point and amend it with new indicators that would allow capturing the complexity as well as the multi-hazard exposure in a typical delta SES.     

Five reasons why it is difficult to talk to Australian farmers about the impacts of,and their adaptation to,climate change

Some recent funding programmes in Australia on climate adaptation have expected active engagement with farmers in research projects. Based on our direct experience with 30 farmers and their advisors, we list five reasons why it is difficult to gain traction with farmers in discussing the likely impacts of climate change on their farms and the possible adaptation options they should be considering in preparation for a future changed climate. The reasons concern the slow and uncertain trajectory for changes in climate relative to the time horizon for farm decision-making, when set against short-term fluctuations in weather, prices, costs and government policy. Farmers have optimism for ongoing technological progress keeping abreast of any negative impacts of climate on their production. As one moves from incremental to transformational adaptation options, biophysical research has less to offer because decisions become based more on business structure, portfolio management, off-farm investments and geographical diversification. Some farmers also doubt the intentions of climate change researchers and are wary of anything they may have to offer. We propose there is an actionable decision space where agricultural science and economics can contribute to meaningful analysis of impacts and adaptation to climate change by farmers. This will involve emphasising the principles of farm management rather than defining optimal farm plans; the use of scenario planning to explore possible futures in a turbulent environment for farming; a focus on short-term adjustments as a path to longer term adaptation; re-gaining the trust of some farmers towards climate change scientists through better communication strategies; and understanding the linkages between adaptation options and enabling factors and technologies.     

Effects of environmental methylmercury on the health of wild birds, mammals, and fish

Wild piscivorous fish, mammals, and birds may be at risk for elevated dietary methylmercury intake and toxicity. In controlled feeding studies, the consumption of diets that contained Hg (as methylmercury) at environmentally realistic concentrations resulted in a range of toxic effects in fish, birds, and mammals, including behavioral, neurochemical, hormonal, and reproductive changes. Limited field-based studies, especially with certain wild piscivorous bird species, e.g., the common loon, corroborated laboratory-based results, demonstrating significant relations between methylmercury exposure and various indicators of methylmercury toxicity, including reproductive impairment. Potential population effects in fish and wildlife resulting from dietary methylmercury exposure are expected to vary as a function of species life history, as well as regional differences in fish-Hg concentrations, which, in turn, are influenced by differences in Hg deposition and environmental methylation rates. However, population modeling suggests that reductions in Hg emissions could have substantial benefits for some common loon populations that are currently experiencing elevated methylmercury exposure. Predicted benefits would be mediated primarily through improved hatching success and development of hatchlings to maturity as Hg concentrations in prey fish decline. Other piscivorous species may also benefit from decreased Hg exposure but have not been as extensively studied as the common loon.     

LEAP2000:可持续能源分析的工具

LEAP是由斯德哥尔摩环境研究所(SEI)波士顿中心领导的一项合作项目,旨在为一体化的能源环境分析建立一套新的分析软件和数据库.LEAP2000项目的产品应尽早获得以广为传播.