Bayesian Small Area Models for Assessing Wildlife Conservation Risk in Patchy Populations

Abstract:  Species conservation risk assessments require accurate, probabilistic, and biologically meaningful maps of population distribution. In patchy populations, the reasons for discontinuities are not often well understood. We tested a novel approach to habitat modeling in which methods of small area estimation were used within a hierarchical Bayesian framework. Amphibian occurrence was modeled with logistic regression that included third-order drainages as hierarchical effects to account for patchy populations. Models including the random drainage effects adequately represented species occurrences in patchy populations of 4 amphibian species in the Oregon Coast Range (U.S.A.). Amphibian surveys from other locations within the same drainage were used to calibrate local drainage-scale effects. Cross-validation showed that prediction errors for calibrated models were 77% to 86% lower than comparable regionally constructed models, depending on species. When calibration data were unavailable, small area and regional models performed similarly, although poorly. Small area estimation models complement wildlife ecology and habitat studies, and can help managers develop a regional picture of the conservation status for relatively rare species.     

Dynamics of the Mite Communities (Acari: Parasitiformes) in Nests of the Parus major

The dynamics of nest-dwelling mites from the nests of the great tit in the protected area of Kamchia Mountain in Northeastern Bulgaria was investigated. The mite fauna inhabiting the nests of great tit differs significantly in terms of the degree of infestation, species richness, abundance and structure of communities in study years. There are statistically significant differences in the specimens’ number between 2014 and the other years 2012, 2013 and 2015. The mite species such as Dermanyssus gallinae, Androlaelaps casalis and Ornithonyssus sylviarum demonstrated significant changes in the abundance over the study years. A relation between the abundance of a species and the species diversity in the nests was not registered. Comparison of the annual dynamics of mites in the nests of great tit and the nests of semi-collared flycatcher for the same period of time and for the same environment, showed similarities—a significant fluctuation in the abundance of mites over the years and differences—in the species richness. Regarding the structure of the communities, both similarities and differences were recorded.

     

Origin of major ions in monthly rainfall events at the Bamenda Highlands, North West Cameroon

Rainwater characteristics can reveal emissions from various anthropogenic and natural sources into the atmosphere. The physico-chemical characteristics of 44 monthly rainfall events （collected between January and December 2012） from 4 weather stations （Bamenda, Ndop plain, Ndawara and Kumbo） in the Bamenda Highlands （BH） were investigated. The purpose was to determine the sources of chemical species, their seasonal inputs and suitability of the rainwater for drinking. The mean pH of 5 indicated the slightly acidic nature of the rainwater. Average total dissolved solids （TDS） were low （6.7 mg/L）, characteristic of unpolluted atmospheric moisture/air. Major ion concentrations （mg/L） were low and in the order K＋ 〉 Ca2＋ 〉 Mg2~ 〉 Na＋ for cations and NO3 〉〉 HCO3 〉 SO] 〉 CI- 〉 PO3- 〉 F- for anions. The average rainwater in the area was mixed Ca-Mg-SO4-CI water type. The CI-/Na＋ ratio （1.04） was comparable to that of seawater （1.16）, an indication that N a＋ and CI originated mainly from marine （Atlantic Ocean） aerosols. High enrichments of Ca2＋, Mg2＋ and SO2- to Na＋ ratios relative to seawater ratios （constituting 44% of the total ions） demonstrated their terrigenous origin, mainly from Saharan and Sahelian arid dusts. The K＋/Na＋ ratio （2.24）, which was similar to tropical vegetation ash （2.38）, and NO3 was essentially from biomass burning. Light （〈 100 mm） pre-monsoon and post-monsoon convective rains were enriched in major ions than the heavy （〉 100 mm） monsoon rains, indicating a high contribution of major ions during the low convective showers. Despite the acidic nature, the TDS and major ion concentrations classified the rainwater as potable based on the WHO guidelines.     

Using long-term data for a reintroduced population to empirically estimate future consequences of inbreeding

Inbreeding depression is an important long-term threat to reintroduced populations. However, the strength of inbreeding depression is difficult to estimate in wild populations because pedigree data are inevitably incomplete and because good data are needed on survival and reproduction. Predicting future population consequences is especially difficult because this also requires projecting future inbreeding levels and their impacts on long-term population dynamics, which are subject to many uncertainties. We illustrate how such projections can be derived through Bayesian state-space modeling methods based on a 26-year data set for North Island Robins (Petroica longipes) reintroduced to Tiritiri Matangi Island in 1992. We used pedigree data to model increases in the average inbreeding level (F ) over time based on kinship of possible breeding pairs and to estimate empirically N_e/N (effective/census population size). We used multiple imputation to model the unknown components of inbreeding coefficients, which allowed us to estimate effects of inbreeding on survival for all 1458 birds in the data set while modeling density dependence and environmental stochasticity. This modeling indicated that inbreeding reduced juvenile survival (1.83 lethal equivalents [SE 0.81]) and may have reduced subsequent adult survival (0.44 lethal equivalents [0.81]) but had no apparent effect on numbers of fledglings produced. Average inbreeding level increased to 0.10 (SE 0.001) as the population grew from 33 (0.3) to 160 (6) individuals over the 25 years, giving a ratio of 0.56 (0.01). Based on a model that also incorporated habitat regeneration, the population was projected to reach a maximum of 331–1144 birds (median 726) in 2130, then to begin a slow decline. Without inbreeding, the population would be expected stabilize at 887–1465 birds (median 1131). Such analysis, therefore, makes it possible to empirically derive the information needed for rational decisions about inbreeding management while accounting for multiple sources of uncertainty.     

Quantifying the squeezing or stretching of fisheries as they adapt to displacement by marine reserves

The designation of no‐take marine reserves involves social and economic concerns due to the resulting displacement of fishing effort, when fishing rights are removed from those who traditionally fished within an area. Displacement can influence the functioning of the fishery and success of the reserve, yet levels of displacement are seldom quantified after reserve implementation and very rarely before that. We devised a simple analytical framework based on set theory to facilitate reserve placement. Implementation of the framework requires maps of fishing grounds, fishing effort, or catch per unit effort for at least 2 years. The framework quantifies the level of conflict that a reserve designation might cause in the fishing sector due to displacement and the opportunities to offset the conflict through fisher spatial mobility (i.e., ability of fishers to fish elsewhere). We also considered how the outputs of the framework can be used to identify targeted management interventions for each fishery. We applied the method in Honduras, where the largest marine protected area in Central America is being placed, for which spatial data on fishing effort were available for 6 fisheries over 3 years. The proposed closure had a greater negative impact on the shrimp and lobster scuba fisheries, which concentrated respectively 28% and 18% of their effort inside the reserve. These fisheries could not accommodate the displacement within existing fishing grounds. Both would be forced to stretch into new fishing grounds, which are available but are of unknown quality. These stakeholders will likely require compensation to offset costly exploratory fishing or to travel to fishing grounds farther away from port.