Geographic range size and extinction risk assessment in nomadic species

Geographic range size is often conceptualized as a fixed attribute of a species and treated as such for the purposes of quantification of extinction risk; species occupying smaller geographic ranges are assumed to have a higher risk of extinction, all else being equal. However many species are mobile, and their movements range from relatively predictable to‐and‐fro migrations to complex irregular movements shown by nomadic species. These movements can lead to substantial temporary expansion and contraction of geographic ranges, potentially to levels which may pose an extinction risk. By linking occurrence data with environmental conditions at the time of observations of nomadic species, we modeled the dynamic distributions of 43 arid‐zone nomadic bird species across the Australian continent for each month over 11 years and calculated minimum range size and extent of fluctuation in geographic range size from these models. There was enormous variability in predicted spatial distribution over time; 10 species varied in estimated geographic range size by more than an order of magnitude, and 2 species varied by >2 orders of magnitude. During times of poor environmental conditions, several species not currently classified as globally threatened contracted their ranges to very small areas, despite their normally large geographic range size. This finding raises questions about the adequacy of conventional assessments of extinction risk based on static geographic range size (e.g., IUCN Red Listing). Climate change is predicted to affect the pattern of resource fluctuations across much of the southern hemisphere, where nomadism is the dominant form of animal movement, so it is critical we begin to understand the consequences of this for accurate threat assessment of nomadic species. Our approach provides a tool for discovering spatial dynamics in highly mobile species and can be used to unlock valuable information for improved extinction risk assessment and conservation planning.     

The difference conservation makes to extinction risk of the world's ungulates

Previous studies show that conservation actions have prevented extinctions, recovered populations, and reduced declining trends in global biodiversity. However, all studies to date have substantially underestimated the difference conservation action makes because they failed to account fully for what would have happened in the absence thereof. We undertook a scenario‐based thought experiment to better quantify the effect conservation actions have had on the extinction risk of the world's 235 recognized ungulate species. We did so by comparing species’ observed conservation status in 2008 with their estimated status under counterfactual scenarios in which conservation efforts ceased in 1996. We estimated that without conservation at least 148 species would have deteriorated by one International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List category, including 6 species that now would be listed as extinct or extinct in the wild. The overall decline in the conservation status of ungulates would have been nearly 8 times worse than observed. This trend would have been greater still if not for conservation on private lands. While some species have benefited from highly targeted interventions, such as reintroduction, most benefited collaterally from conservation such as habitat protection. We found that the difference conservation action makes to the conservation status of the world's ungulate species is likely to be higher than previously estimated. Increased, and sustained, investment could help achieve further improvements.     

Contamination and vertical distribution of As,Cd, Cr,Cu, Pb,Tl, and Zn in paddy soil irrigated with untreated leachate from tailings retention ponds

The contamination and vertical distribution of As, Cd, Cr, Cu, Pb, Tl, and Zn in paddy soil irrigated with untreated leachate from the tailings retention pond were investigated. As, Cr, Cu, and Zn were slightly contaminated in the surface soil and hence their vertical distribution was not obvious. However, Cd and Pb were highly contaminated in the surface soil, while their concentrations decreased with depth, being negatively correlated with pH and positively with total organic matter. Tl was considerably contaminated in the surface soil and a V-shaped vertical distribution was observed where the concentration increased to a maximum at about 30 cm depth and decreased thereafter. The findings revealed that the regular irrigation with untreated leachate from the tailings retention ponds could cause considerable contamination of Cd, Pb, and Tl, and thus tailings should be stringently treated before disposal to minimize their potential environmental impacts on the surroundings.     

Chemopreventive effects of ellagic acid against genotoxicity induced by benzo(a)pyrene

Benzo(a)pyrene (B(a)P) is a commonly used indicator for polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) contamination. The use of certain phytochemicals and some polyphenolic compounds proved to be effective in blocking PAH-induced effects. The aim of the present study was to examine the possible inhibitory effects of ellagic acid (EA), present in berries and nuts, against B(a)P-mediated toxicity using in vitro and in vivo test systems. In vitro method included the Ames test, using Salmonella typhimurium tester strain TA100. In vivo experiments were based on mouse bone marrow micronucleus (MN) assay and immunoblotting. EA produced a decrease in the number of revertant colonies against B(a)P in the Ames assay. Further, there was a reduction in the mean number of micronucleated polychromatic erythrocytes in the presence of EA in the co-treatment protocol of the MN test. Western blotting results showed downregulation of CYP450 isoform CYP1A1 which prevented bioactivation of B(a)P. Thus, the present study demonstrates antimutagenic role played by EA against the mutagenic activity of B(a)P in both in vitro and in vivo systems.     

Spatial extremes of wildfire sizes: Bayesian hierarchical models for extremes

In Portugal, due to the combination of climatological and ecological factors, large wildfires are a constant threat and due to their economic impact, a big policy issue. In order to organize efficient fire fighting capacity and resource management, correct quantification of the risk of large wildfires are needed. In this paper, we quantify the regional risk of large wildfire sizes, by fitting a Generalized Pareto distribution to excesses over a suitably chosen high threshold. Spatio-temporal variations are introduced into the model through model parameters with suitably chosen link functions. The inference on these models are carried using Bayesian Hierarchical Models and Markov chain Monte Carlo methods.     

When rate maximization is impulsive

Although optimal foraging theory predicts that natural selection should favor animal behaviors that maximize long-term rate of gain, behaviors observed in the laboratory tend to be impulsive. In binary-choice experiments, despite the long-term gain of each alternative, animals favor short handling times. Most explanations of this behavior suggest that there is hidden rationality in impulsiveness. Instead, we suggest that simultaneous and mutually exclusive binary-choice encounters are often unnatural and thus immune to the effects of natural selection. Using a simulation of an imperfect forager, we show how a simple strategy (i.e., an intuitive model of animal behavior) that maximizes long-term rate of gain under natural conditions appears to be impulsive under operant laboratory conditions. We then show how the accuracy of this model can be verified in the laboratory by biasing subjects with a short pre-experiment ad libitum high-quality feeding period. We also show a similar behavioral mechanism results in diet preferences that are qualitatively consistent with the digestive rate model of foraging (i.e., foraging under digestive rate constraints).     

Alimentary niche partitioning in the Galapagos sea lion, Zalophus wollebaeki

Sea lions are generally considered opportunistic feeders. However, studies from different areas suggest their diet consists mostly of four to five types of prey. Previous studies in Galapagos sea lions have identified at least three feeding strategies for this species, suggesting diversification of their diet. Diet diversification is favored in organisms with relatively high trophic position and subject to high intra-specific and low inter-specific competition. Zalophus wollebaeki meet these criteria as the only pinniped on San Cristobal Island, where three sea lion rookeries are located within 11 km: a distance considerably shorter than their 41 km foraging range. To measure the degree of diet diversification, we used scats and stable isotope analyses. A total of 270 scat samples from lactating females and 142 fur samples from sea lion pups were collected during the breeding season 2006. The scat analysis identified distinct diets among rookeries, with minimal trophic overlap (Cλ = 0.19), a trophic level TL = 4.5 (secondary–tertiary carnivore), and trophic breadth of a specialist predator (B _i  = 0.37). The mean δ¹⁵N and δ¹³C values were 13.07 ± 0.52 and −16.34 ± 0.37, respectively. No significant difference was found in the δ¹⁵N values from the sea lion rookeries, but differences were found inter- and intra-population in δ¹³C values for pups from different groups (ANOVA P < 0.05). Our results indicate that diet diversification is present in the Galapagos sea lion and may play important role to the survival of the species in a habitat where pinniped populations are limited.     

Interspecific competition and predation: relative effects on foragers and their densities

Predation and competition are both strong structuring forces in community dynamics, but their relative importance is disputed. In a laboratory experiment, we evaluated the relative importance of competition and predation from juvenile and adult brown trout, respectively, on foraging performance of groups of three stone loaches. We observed loach consumption rate, time spent inactive, and aggressive interactions between juvenile trout and loach in artificial stream sections. The controlled experiments were complemented by examining stone loach population densities in natural systems as functions of juvenile and adult trout. In the laboratory experiments, increasing numbers of competitors decreased prey availability, which ultimately led to lower consumption rates for loach. Loach responded to predation risk by increasing time being inactive, thereby decreasing consumption rates. However, there were no effects of juvenile trout competitors on loach consumption rates in treatments with adult trout presence, suggesting no additive effect of predation and competition on loach foraging success. Partial regressions of loach and trout densities in natural streams revealed a positive relationship between juvenile trout and loach, and a negative relationship between adult trout and loach. Our laboratory and field data thus suggest that predation is a limiting factor for loach success, and predator presence could mediate species coexistence at high interspecific densities.     

Integration of a fish bioenergetics model into a spatially explicit water quality model: Application to menhaden in Chesapeake Bay

Although fish are usually thought of as victims of water quality degradation, it has been proposed that some planktivorous species may improve water quality through consumption of algae and sequestering of nutrients via growth. Within most numerical water quality models, the highest trophic level modeled explicitly is zooplankton, prohibiting an investigation of the effect a fish species may be having on its environment. Conversely, numerical models of fish consumption do not typically include feedback mechanisms to capture the effects of fish on primary production and nutrient recycling. In the present study, a fish bioenergetics model is incorporated into CE-QUAL-ICM, a spatially explicit eutrophication model. In addition to fish consumption of algae, zooplankton, and detritus, fish biomass accumulation and nutrient recycling to the water column are explicitly accounted for. These developments advance prior modeling efforts of the impact of fish on water quality, many of which are based on integrated estimates over an entire system and which omit the feedback the fish have through nutrient recycling and excretion. To validate the developments, a pilot application was undertaken for Atlantic menhaden (Brevoortia tyrannus) in Chesapeake Bay. The model indicates menhaden may reduce the algal biomass while simultaneously increasing primary productivity.