Climate change impacts on vegetation and water cycle in the Euro-Mediterranean region,studied by a likelihood approach

Scientific community and policy-makers share the common interest in identifying and evaluating potential impacts of climate change on ecosystems, relying mainly on probabilistic methods of exploring the risks. In this perspective, the concept of ensemble forecasting makes possible to handle uncertainties associated with climate risk analysis by focusing on a range of potential or probable impact scenarios rather than actualizing a single case. In this paper, an ensemble of simulations based on the Lund-Potsdam-Jena (LPJ) model was used to investigate the uncertainty upon predictions of the future Euro-Mediterranean vegetation distribution, carbon dynamics, and water budget. Twenty simulations from past to future were based on the combination of different climate inputs, vegetation model parameterizations, and configurations. The evaluation of results combined the separate deterministic future projections from the LPJ model into a single probabilistic projection, associating a likelihood degree in accordance with the most recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change terminology. Results projected a general critical situation in terms of water availability, made more serious if considering that also the occurrence of extreme-related events, e.g., fires, is expected to become more frequent as favored by more recurrent drought episodes. Although more uncomfortable climate conditions were projected for vegetation, net primary production (NPP) was predicted to increase due to the potential enrichment of CO₂ in atmosphere and its fertilization effects on vegetation. The combination of rising NPP and fire frequency may shape the carbon cycle components, as the carbon losses by fire also were projected to increase.     

Model projected heat extremes and air pollution in the eastern Mediterranean and Middle East in the twenty-first century

The eastern Mediterranean and Middle East, a region with diverse socioeconomic and cultural identities, is exposed to strong climatic gradients between its temperate north and arid south. Model projections of the twenty-first century indicate increasing hot weather extremes and decreasing rainfall. We present model results, which suggest that across the Balkan Peninsula and Turkey climate change is particularly rapid, and especially summer temperatures are expected to increase strongly. Temperature rise can be amplified by the depletion of soil moisture, which limits evaporative cooling, prompted by the waning of large-scale weather systems that generate rain. Very hot summers that occurred only rarely in the recent past are projected to become common by the middle and the end of the century. Throughout the region, the annual number of heat wave days may increase drastically. Furthermore, conditions in the region are conducive for photochemical air pollution. Our model projections suggest strongly increasing ozone formation, a confounding health risk factor particularly in urban areas. This adds to the high concentrations of aerosol particles from natural (desert dust) and anthropogenic sources. The heat extremes may have strong impacts, especially in the Middle East where environmental stresses are plentiful.     

Looking beyond the average agricultural impacts in defining adaptation needs in Europe

The effects of climate change on agriculture are often characterised by changes in the average productivity of crops; however, these indicators provide limited information regarding the risks associated with fluctuations in productivity resulting from future changes in climate variability that may also affect agriculture. In this context, this study evaluates the combined effects of the risks associated with anomalies reflected by changes in the mean crop yield and the variability of productivity in European agro-climatic regions under future climate change scenarios. The objective of this study is to evaluate adaptation needs and to identify regional effects that should be addressed with greater urgency in the light of the risks and opportunities that are identified. The results show differential effects on regional agriculture and highlight the importance of considering both regional average impacts and the variability in crop productivity in setting priorities for the adaptation and maintenance of rural incomes and agricultural insurance programmes.     

Probabilistic impacts of climate change on flood frequency using response surfaces II: Scotland

This paper uses a sensitivity framework approach to look at the probabilistic impacts of climate change on 20-year return period flood peaks, by applying a set of typical response surfaces alongside the probabilistic UK Climate Projections (UKCP09) for 10 river-basin regions over Scotland. The first paper of the pair used the same approach for 10 river-basin regions over England and Wales. This paper develops the methodology for Scotland, by first enabling better estimation of the response type of Scottish catchments. Then, as for England and Wales, the potential range of impacts is shown for different types of catchment in each river-basin region in Scotland, and regional average impact ranges are estimated. Results show clear differences in impacts between catchments of different types and between regions. The Argyll and West Highland regions show the highest impacts, while the North-East Scotland region shows the lowest impacts. The overall ranges are generally smaller for Scotland than England and Wales.     

Towards saving freshwater: halophytes as unconventional feedstuffs in livestock feed: a review

Water represents 71% of all earth area and about 97% of this water is salty water. So, only 3% of the overall world water quantity is freshwater. Human can benefit only from 1% of this water and the remaining 2% freeze at both poles of earth. Therefore, it is important to preserve the freshwater through increasing the plants consuming salty water. The future prosperity of feed resources in arid and semi-arid countries depends on economic use of alternative resources that have been marginalized for long periods of time, such as halophytic plants, which are one such potential future resource. Halophyte plants can grow in high salinity water and soil and to some extent during drought. The growth of these plants depends on the contact of the salted water with plant roots as in semi-desert saline water, mangrove swamps, marshes, and seashores. Halophyte plants need high levels of sodium chloride in the soil water for growth, and the soil water must also contain high levels of salts, as sodium hydroxide or magnesium sulfate. There are many uses for halophyte plants, including feed for animals, vegetables, drugs, sand dune stabilizers, wind shelter, soil cover, wetland cultivation, laundry detergents, and paper production. This paper will focus on the use of halophytes as a feed additive for animals. In spite of the good nutritional value of halophytes, some anti-nutritional factors as nitrates, nitrite complexes, tannins, glycosides, phenolic compounds, saponins, oxalates, and alkaloids may be present in some of them. The presence of such anti-nutritional agents makes halophytes unpalatable to animals, which tends to reduce feed intake and nutrient use. Therefore, the negative effects of these plants on animal performance are the only objection against using halophytes in animal feed diets. This review article highlights the beneficial impact of considering halophytes in animal feeding on saving freshwater and illustrates its nutritive value for livestock from different aspects.     

Job stress among resident physicians in Tanta University Hospitals,Egypt

Environmental Science and Pollution Research - Resident physicians are the first-line health service providers, subjected to prolonged working hours, sleep deprivation and high job demands. Work...     

The concept of circular economy strategy in food waste management for the optimization of energy production through anaerobic digestion

Environmental Science and Pollution Research - Food waste management (FWM) is considered to be an extremely important social issue besides an environmental one. Worldwide, it is estimated that 1.3...     

Seasonal changes in an intertidal community affected by sewage pollution

Seasonal changes in structure of a rocky intertidal community affected by sewage pollution at Quequén (Argentina) were studied over a period of 2 years. Most species showed a decrease in cover values in the polluted area. On the other hand, a small proportion of organisms favoured by organic enrichment predominated around the outfall during the period of study. Community structure was not significantly altered by frosts or windstorms. Desiccation is identified as the main physical stress. A combination of late spring high temperatures with extreme midday low-tides caused by northerly winds was responsible for heavy losses in dominant algae. Major seasonal changes in community structure were primarily due to variations in area covered by the chlorophyte Ulva lactuca, and crusts of blue-green algae and diatoms in the vicinity of the outfall. Highest diversity values were attained during either late winter or spring, due to increased abundances of several seasonal algae. Abundance of the dominant organism, the bivalve Brachidontes rodriguezi, remained stable, showing only slight, non-seasonal, changes. Since the absence of B. rodriguezi is an indication of heavy pollution, temporal stability of this species suggests that the intensity of sewage discharges did not vary over the period of study.     

Variation in the development of cadmium resistance in Daphnia magna straus; effect of temperature, nutrition, age and genotype

The extent to which responses to toxicants can be modified by the environment and genotype of Daphnia magna is important for interpreting the results from ecotoxicity tests. Variation in the development of cadmium resistance and its relevance for survivorship has been investigated in two genetically distinct clones of D. magna. Cadmium resistance was induced by pre-exposing daphnids to a sublethal concentration of a Cd/Zn mixture and thereafter cadmium tolerance was assessed in standard acute tests. The results showed that the ability to develop cadmium resistance is affected by temperature, but there is no consistent pattern for maternal nutrition. The age of the daphnids had no apparent effect on the development of cadmium resistance. Differences in the induction of cadmium resistance between clones were seen only under resource depression.