Model projected heat extremes and air pollution in the eastern Mediterranean and Middle East in the twenty-first century

The eastern Mediterranean and Middle East, a region with diverse socioeconomic and cultural identities, is exposed to strong climatic gradients between its temperate north and arid south. Model projections of the twenty-first century indicate increasing hot weather extremes and decreasing rainfall. We present model results, which suggest that across the Balkan Peninsula and Turkey climate change is particularly rapid, and especially summer temperatures are expected to increase strongly. Temperature rise can be amplified by the depletion of soil moisture, which limits evaporative cooling, prompted by the waning of large-scale weather systems that generate rain. Very hot summers that occurred only rarely in the recent past are projected to become common by the middle and the end of the century. Throughout the region, the annual number of heat wave days may increase drastically. Furthermore, conditions in the region are conducive for photochemical air pollution. Our model projections suggest strongly increasing ozone formation, a confounding health risk factor particularly in urban areas. This adds to the high concentrations of aerosol particles from natural (desert dust) and anthropogenic sources. The heat extremes may have strong impacts, especially in the Middle East where environmental stresses are plentiful.     

Potential impacts of climate change on agricultural land use suitability of the Hungarian counties

Central and Eastern European countries are a hotspot area when analyzing the impacts of climate change on agricultural and environmental sectors. This paper conducts a socio-economic evaluation of climate risks on crop production in Hungary, using panel data models. The region has a special location in the Carpathian basin, where the spatial distribution of precipitation varies highly from humid conditions in the western part to semiarid conditions in eastern Hungary. Under current conditions, crop systems are mainly rainfed, and water licences are massively underexploited. However, water stress projected by climate change scenarios could completely change this situation. In the near future (2021–2050), most of the crops examined could have better climatic conditions, while at the end of the century (2071–2100), lower yields are expected. Adaptation strategies must be based on an integrated evaluation which links economic and climatic aspects, and since the results show important differences in the case of individual systems, it is clear that the response has to be crop and region specific.     

Probabilistic impacts of climate change on flood frequency using response surfaces II: Scotland

This paper uses a sensitivity framework approach to look at the probabilistic impacts of climate change on 20-year return period flood peaks, by applying a set of typical response surfaces alongside the probabilistic UK Climate Projections (UKCP09) for 10 river-basin regions over Scotland. The first paper of the pair used the same approach for 10 river-basin regions over England and Wales. This paper develops the methodology for Scotland, by first enabling better estimation of the response type of Scottish catchments. Then, as for England and Wales, the potential range of impacts is shown for different types of catchment in each river-basin region in Scotland, and regional average impact ranges are estimated. Results show clear differences in impacts between catchments of different types and between regions. The Argyll and West Highland regions show the highest impacts, while the North-East Scotland region shows the lowest impacts. The overall ranges are generally smaller for Scotland than England and Wales.     

Adaptation options for marine industries and coastal communities using community structure and dynamics

Identifying effective adaptation strategies for coastal communities dependent on marine resources and impacted by climate change can be difficult due to the dynamic nature of marine ecosystems. The task is more difficult if current and predicted shifts in social and economic trends are considered. Information about social and economic change is often limited to qualitative data. A combination of qualitative and quantitative models provide the flexibility to allow the assessment of current and future ecological and socio-economic risks and can provide information on alternative adaptations. Here, we demonstrate how stakeholder input, qualitative models and Bayesian belief networks (BBNs) can provide semi-quantitative predictions, including uncertainty levels, for the assessment of climate and non-climate-driven change in a case study community. Issues are identified, including the need to increase the capacity of the community to cope with change. Adaptation strategies are identified that alter positive feedback cycles contributing to a continued decline in population, local employment and retail spending. For instance, the diversification of employment opportunities and the attraction of new residents of different ages would be beneficial in preventing further population decline. Some impacts of climate change can be combated through recreational bag or size limits and monitoring of popular range-shifted species that are currently unmanaged, to reduce the potential for excessive removal. Our results also demonstrate that combining BBNs and qualitative models can assist with the effective communication of information between stakeholders and researchers. Furthermore, the combination of techniques provides a dynamic, learning-based, semi-quantitative approach for the assessment of climate and socio-economic impacts and the identification of potential adaptation strategies.     

Impact of point polluters on terrestrial ecosystems: Methodology of research,experimental design,and typical errors

The current state of the ecology of the impact regions is outlined. It is argued that the complex of ecosystems situated around a point polluter (an impact region) is an appropriate model for solving several fundamental and applied ecological problems related to the exploration of strong external impacts on biota. Typical methodological errors resulting from insufficient attention to specific features of passive experiments are analysed, and ways to avoid them are proposed. The principles of spatial arrangements of study sites within the impact region and of the selection of experimental and evaluation units are discussed.     

The role of topography in forming the thermal regime and biological diversity of relict ecosystems on limestones in the northeast of European Russia

Integrated studies on the temperature regime in a limestone outcrop area have been performed, including analysis of the latitudinal trends and dynamics of direct solar radiation input onto slopes of different exposures and the redistribution of temperatures depending on mesotopographic features of the slopes. Assessment of the diversity of ecological conditions in this model landscape has shown that about 3.3% of its area is potentially suitable for the formation of a relict lithophytic floristic assemblage.     

Perfluoroalkyl carboxylates and sulfonates and precursors in relation to dietary source tracers in the eggs of four species of gulls (Larids) from breeding sites spanning Atlantic to Pacific Canada

In the present study, we identified and examined the spatial trends, sources and dietary relationships of bioaccumulative perfluorinated sulfonate (PFSA; C(6), C(8), and C(10) chain lengths) and carboxylate (PFCA; C(6) to C(15) chain lengths) contaminants, as well as precursor compounds including several perfluorinated sulfonamides, and fluorotelomer acids and alcohols, in individual eggs (collected in 2008) from four gull species [glaucous-winged (Larus glaucescens), California (Larus californicus), ring-billed (Larus delawarensis) and herring (Larus argentatus) gulls] from 15 marine and freshwater colony sites in provinces across Canada. The pattern of PFSAs was dominated by perfluorooctane sulfonate (PFOS; >89% of ΣPFSA concentration) regardless of egg collection location. The highest ΣPFSA concentrations were found in the eggs collected in the urbanized areas in the Great Lakes and the St. Lawrence River area [Big Chicken Island 308 ng/g ww, Toronto Harbour 486 ng/g ww, and Ile Deslauriers (HG) 299 ng/g ww]. Also, eggs from all freshwater colony sites had higher ΣPFSA concentrations, which were significant (p<0.05) in many cases, compared to the marine sites with the exception of the Sable Island colony in Atlantic Canada off the coast of Nova Scotia. C(6) to C(15) chain length PFCAs were detected in the eggs, although the pattern was variable among the 15 sites, where PFUnA and PFTrA dominated the pattern for most colonies. Like the ΣPFSA, the highest concentrations of ΣPFCA were found in the eggs from Big Chicken Island, Toronto Harbour, Ile Deslauriers (HG), and Sable Island, although not all freshwater sites had higher concentrations compared to marine sites. Dietary tracers [δ(15)N and δ(13)C stable isotopes (SIs)] revealed that PFSA and PFCA exposure is colony dependent. SI signatures suggested that gulls from most marine colony sites were exposed to PFCs via marine prey. The exception was the Mandarte Island colony in Pacific British Columbia, where PFSA and PFCA exposure appeared to be via terrestrial and/or freshwater prey consumption. The same was true for the freshwater sites where egg SIs suggested both aquatic and terrestrial prey consumption as the source for PFC exposure depending on the colony. Both aquatic (marine and freshwater) and terrestrial prey are likely sources of PFC exposure to gulls but exposure scenarios are colony-specific.     

Inhalation dose assessment of indoor radon progeny using biokinetic and dosimetric modeling and its application to Jordanian population

High indoor radon concentrations in Jordan result in internal exposures of the residents due to the inhalation of radon and its short-lived progeny. It is therefore important to quantify the annual effective dose and further the radiation risk to the radon exposure. This study describes the methodology and the biokinetic and dosimetric models used for calculation of the inhalation doses exposed to radon progeny. The regional depositions of aerosol particles in the human respiratory tract were firstly calculated. For the attached progeny, the activity median aerodynamic diameters of 50 nm, 230 nm and 2500 nm were chosen to represent the nucleation, accumulation and coarse modes of the aerosol particles, respectively. For the unattached progeny, the activity median thermodynamic diameter of 1 nm was chosen to represent the free progeny nuclide in the room air. The biokinetic models developed by the International Commission on Radiological Protection (ICRP) were used to calculate the nuclear transformations of radon progeny in the human body, and then the dosimetric model was applied to estimate the organ equivalent doses and the effective doses with the specific effective energies derived from the mathematical anthropomorphic phantoms. The dose conversion coefficient estimated in this study was 15 mSv WLM⁻¹ which was in the range of the values of 6-20 mSv WLM⁻¹ reported by other investigators. Implementing the average indoor radon concentration in Jordan, the annual effective doses were calculated to be 4.1 mSv y⁻¹ and 0.08 mSv y⁻¹ due to the inhalation of radon progeny and radon gas, respectively. The total annual effective dose estimated for Jordanian population was 4.2 mSv y⁻¹. This high annual effective dose calculated by the dosimetric approach using ICRP biokinetic and dosimetric models resulted in an increase of a factor of two in comparison to the value by epidemiological study. This phenomenon was presented by the ICRP in its new published statement on radon.     

Technologically enhanced 210Pb and 210Po in iron and steel industry

Iron and steel manufacture has been ranked as the largest industrial source of environmental contamination in the USA; the wastes generated in their production processes contain heavy elements that can be a source of contamination, and natural radionuclides that can produce an occupational and/or public radiological impact. In this work the potential occupational effective dose rate (μSv/y) due to inhalation in four integrated steel-making factories from Egypt has been evaluated, by assuming a well defined scenario and with basis in the ²¹⁰Pb and ²¹⁰Po activity concentrations determined in ore and wastes collected in the aforementioned factories. Activity concentrations, in Bq/kg, of ²¹⁰Pb and ²¹⁰Po, and leachable Pb and Fe were measured using gamma-ray spectrometry based on HPGe detector, alpha particle spectrometry based on PIPS detector, and inductively coupled plasma-mass spectrometry (ICP-MS). Levels of ²¹⁰Pb and ²¹⁰Po in the range of <DL-4238 and 1-5660 Bq/kg, respectively, were found. According to the assumed scenarios, the occupational exposures by inhalation are much lower than the recommended annual effective dose limit, although the environmental impact due to waste storage and/or use should be considered based on case by case evaluation.