Mapping shifts in spatial synchrony in grassland birds to inform conservation planning

Spatial synchrony, defined as the correlated fluctuations in abundance of spatially separated populations, can be caused by regional fluctuations in natural and anthropogenic environmental population drivers. Investigations into the geography of synchrony can provide useful insight to inform conservation planning efforts by revealing regions of common population drivers and metapopulation extinction vulnerability. We examined the geography of spatial synchrony and decadal changes in these patterns for grassland birds in the United States and Canada, which are experiencing widespread and persistent population declines. We used Bayesian hierarchical models and over 50 years of abundance data from the North American Breeding Bird Survey to generate population indices within a 2° latitude by 2° longitude grid. We computed and mapped mean local spatial synchrony for each cell (mean detrended correlation of the index among neighboring cells), along with associated uncertainty, for 19 species in 2, 26-year periods, 1968–1993 and 1994–2019. Grassland birds were predicted to increase in spatial synchrony where agricultural intensification, climate change, or interactions between the 2 increased. We found no evidence of an overall increase in synchrony among grassland bird species. However, based on the geography of these changes, there was considerable spatial heterogeneity within species. Averaging across species, we identified clusters of increasing spatial synchrony in the Prairie Pothole and Shortgrass Prairie regions and a region of decreasing spatial synchrony in the eastern United States. Our approach has the potential to inform continental-scale conservation planning by adding an additional layer of relevant information to species status assessments and spatial prioritization of policy and management actions. Our work adds to a growing literature suggesting that global change may result in shifting patterns of spatial synchrony in population dynamics across taxa with broad implications for biodiversity conservation.     

A framework for allocating conservation resources among multiple threats and actions

Land managers decide how to allocate resources among multiple threats that can be addressed through multiple possible actions. Additionally, these actions vary in feasibility, effectiveness, and cost. We sought to provide a way to optimize resource allocation to address multiple threats when multiple management options are available, including mutually exclusive options. Formulating the decision as a combinatorial optimization problem, our framework takes as inputs the expected impact and cost of each threat for each action (including do nothing) and for each overall budget identifies the optimal action to take for each threat. We compared the optimal solution to an easy to calculate greedy algorithm approximation and a variety of plausible ranking schemes. We applied the framework to management of multiple introduced plant species in Australian alpine areas. We developed a model of invasion to predict the expected impact in 50 years for each species-action combination that accounted for each species’ current invasion state (absent, localized, widespread); arrival probability; spread rate; impact, if present, of each species; and management effectiveness of each species-action combination. We found that the recommended action for a threat changed with budget; there was no single optimal management action for each species; and considering more than one candidate action can substantially increase the management plan's overall efficiency. The approximate solution (solution ranked by marginal cost-effectiveness) performed well when the budget matched the cost of the prioritized actions, indicating that this approach would be effective if the budget was set as part of the prioritization process. The ranking schemes varied in performance, and achieving a close to optimal solution was not guaranteed. Global sensitivity analysis revealed a threat's expected impact and, to a lesser extent, management effectiveness were the most influential parameters, emphasizing the need to focus research and monitoring efforts on their quantification.     

蒽醌化合物的光解动力学及定量结构-性质关系

以高压汞灯为光源, 测定了15 种蒽醌化合物(ATQs)的光解速率常数(k), 讨论了取代基位置、数目及种类对ATQs 光解速率的影响.另外,选取9 种氨基蒽醌, 应用偏最小二乘(PLS)算法, 建立了关于k的定量结构-性质关系(QSPR)模型. 根据该模型, 决定k值大小的主要因素包括:分子生成热、H 原子所带最大正电荷、C 原子所带最大负电荷,以及分子最低未占据轨道与最高占据轨道能量差.     

Phenological sequences reveal aggregate life history response to climatic warming

Climatic warming is associated with organisms breeding earlier in the season than is typical for their species. In some species, however, response to warming is more complex than a simple advance in the timing of all life history events preceding reproduction. Disparities in the extent to which different components of the reproductive phenology of organisms vary with climatic warming indicate that not all life history events are equally responsive to environmental variation. Here, we propose that our understanding of phenological response to climate change can be improved by considering entire sequences of events comprising the aggregate life histories of organisms preceding reproduction. We present results of a two-year warming experiment conducted on 33 individuals of three plant species inhabiting a low-arctic site. Analysis of phenological sequences of three key events for each species revealed how the aggregate life histories preceding reproduction responded to warming, and which individual events exerted the greatest influence on aggregate life history variation. For alpine chickweed (Cerastium alpinum), warming elicited a shortening of the duration of the emergence stage by 2.5 days on average, but the aggregate life history did not differ between warmed and ambient plots. For gray willow (Salix glauca), however, all phenological events monitored occurred earlier on warmed than on ambient plots, and warming reduced the aggregate life history of this species by 22 days on average. Similarly, in dwarf birch (Betula nana), warming advanced flower bud set, blooming, and fruit set and reduced the aggregate life history by 27 days on average. Our approach provides important insight into life history responses of many organisms to climate change and other forms of environmental variation. Such insight may be compromised by considering changes in individual phenological events in isolation.     

Predicting tree diversity across the United States as a function of modeled gross primary production.

At the regional and continental scale, ecologists have theorized that spatial variation in biodiversity can be interpreted as a response to differences in climate. To test this theory we assumed that ecological constraints associated with current climatic conditions (2000-2004) might best be correlated with tree richness if expressed through satellite-derived measures of gross primary production (GPP), rather than the more commonly used, but less consistently derived, net primary production. To evaluate current patterns in tree diversity across the contiguous United States we acquired information on tree composition from the USDA Forest Service's Forest Inventory and Analysis program that represented more than 17,4000 survey plots. We selected 2693 cells of 1000 km2 within which a sufficient number of plots were available to estimate tree richness per hectare. Our estimates of forest productivity varied from simple vegetation indices indicative of the fraction of light intercepted by canopies at 16-d intervals, a product from the MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectro-radiometer), to 8- and 10-d GPP products derived with minimal climatic data (MODIS) and SPOT-Vegetation (Systeme Pour l'Observation de la Terre), to 3-PGS (Physiological Principles Predicting Growth with Satellites), which requires both climate and soil data. Across the contiguous United States, modeled predictions of gross productivity accounted for between 51% and 77% of the recorded spatial variation in tree diversity, which ranged from 2 to 67 species per hectare. When the analyses were concentrated within nine broadly defined ecoregions, predictive relations largely disappeared. Only 3-PGS predictions fit a theorized unimodal function by being able to distinguish highly productive forests in the Pacific Northwest that support lower than expected tree diversity. Other models predicted a continuous steep rise in tree diversity with increasing productivity, and did so with generally better or nearly equal precision with fewer data requirements.     

Evidence supporting the importance of terrestrial carbon in a large-river food web

Algal carbon has been increasingly recognized as the primary carbon source supporting large-river food webs; however, many of the studies that support this contention have focused on lotic main channels during low-flow periods. The flow variability and habitat-heterogeneity characteristic of these systems has the potential to significantly influence food web structure and must be integrated into models of large-river webs. We used stable-isotope analysis and IsoSource software to model terrestrial and algal sources of organic carbon supporting consumer taxa in the main channel and oxbow lakes of the Brazos River, Texas, USA, during a period of frequent hydrologic connectivity between these habitat types. Standardized sampling was conducted monthly to collect production sources and consumer species used in isotopic analysis. Predictability of hydrologic connections between habitat types was based on the previous 30 years of flow data. IsoSource mixing models identified terrestrial C3 macrophytes (riparian origin) as the primary carbon source supporting virtually all consumers in the main channel and most consumers in oxbow lakes. Small-bodied consumers (<100 mm) in oxbow lakes assimilated large fractions of algal carbon whereas this pattern was not apparent in the main channel. Estimates of detritivore trophic positions based on delta15N values indicated that terrestrial material was likely assimilated via invertebrates rather than directly from detritus. High flows in the river channel influenced algal standing stock, and differences in the importance of terrestrial and algal production sources among consumers in channel vs. oxbow habitats were associated with patterns of flooding. The importance of terrestrial material contradicts the findings of recent studies of large-river food webs that have emphasized the importance of algal carbon and indicates that there can be significant spatial, temporal, and taxonomic variation in carbon sources supporting consumers in large rivers.     

国家大气污染物排放标准体系研究

科学合理的大气污染物排放标准体系,有助于全面系统地控制大气污染源,提高大气环境保护工作效力,改善整体大气环境质量.在深入研究国家大气环境标准体系发展历程、现状及特点的基础上,指出了目前标准体系存在的不配套、不协调和不完善的问题,并提出了相应的对策和建议.     

Dietary exposure to di-isobutyl phthalate increases urinary 5-methyl-2′-deoxycytidine level and affects reproductive function in adult male mice

Phthalates are a large family of ubiquitous environmental pollutants suspected of being endocrine disruptors. Epidemiological studies have associated phthalate metabolites with decreased reproductive parameters and linked phthalate exposure with the level of urinary 5-methyl-2′-deoxycytidine(5mdC, a product of methylated DNA). In this study, adult male mice were exposed to 450 mg di-isobutyl phthalate(DiBP)/(kg·day) via dietary exposure for 28 days. Mono-isobutyl phthalate(Mi BP, the urinary metabolite) and reproductive function parameters were determined. The levels of 5mdC and 5-hydroxymethyl-2′-deoxycytidine(5hmdC) were measured in urine to evaluate if their contents were also altered by DiBP exposure in this animal model. Results showed that DiBP exposure led to a significant increase in the urinary 5mdC level and significant decreases in sperm concentration and motility in the epididymis, accompanied with reduced testosterone levels and downregulation of the P450 cholesterol side-chain cleavage enzyme(P450scc) gene in the mice testes. Our findings indicated that exposure to DiBP increased the urinary 5mdC levels,which supported our recent epidemiological study about the associations of urinary 5mdC with phthalate exposure in the male human population. In addition, DiBP exposure impaired male reproductive function, possibly by disturbing testosterone levels; P450scc might be a major steroidogenic enzyme targeted by DiBP or other phthalates.