Water management decision makers' evaluations of uncertainty in a decision support system: the case of WaterSim in the Decision Theater

Model-based decision support systems are increasingly used to link knowledge to action for environmental decision making. How stakeholders perceive uncertainty in models and visualisations affects their perceptions of credibility, relevance and usability of these tools. This paper presents a case study of water decision makers’ evaluations of WaterSim, a dynamic water simulation model presented in an immersive decision theatre environment. Results reveal that decision makers’ understandings of uncertainty in their evaluations of decision support systems reflect both scientific and political discourse. We conclude with recommendations for design and evaluation of decision support systems that incorporate decision makers' views.     

A flexible spatio-temporal model for air pollution with spatial and spatio-temporal covariates

The development of models that provide accurate spatio-temporal predictions of ambient air pollution at small spatial scales is of great importance for the assessment of potential health effects of air pollution. Here we present a spatio-temporal framework that predicts ambient air pollution by combining data from several different monitoring networks and deterministic air pollution model(s) with geographic information system covariates. The model presented in this paper has been implemented in an R package, SpatioTemporal, available on CRAN. The model is used by the EPA funded Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis and Air Pollution (MESA Air) to produce estimates of ambient air pollution; MESA Air uses the estimates to investigate the relationship between chronic exposure to air pollution and cardiovascular disease. In this paper we use the model to predict long-term average concentrations of \(\text {NO}_{x}\) in the Los Angeles area during a 10 year period. Predictions are based on measurements from the EPA Air Quality System, MESA Air specific monitoring, and output from a source dispersion model for traffic related air pollution (Caline3QHCR). Accuracy in predicting long-term average concentrations is evaluated using an elaborate cross-validation setup that accounts for a sparse spatio-temporal sampling pattern in the data, and adjusts for temporal effects. The predictive ability of the model is good with cross-validated \(R^2\) of approximately \(0.7\) at subject sites. Replacing four geographic covariate indicators of traffic density with the Caline3QHCR dispersion model output resulted in very similar prediction accuracy from a more parsimonious and more interpretable model. Adding traffic-related geographic covariates to the model that included Caline3QHCR did not further improve the prediction accuracy.     

Short- and long-term responses of nourishments: Barra-Vagueira coastal stretch,Portugal

Dredged material resulting from deepening and maintenance activities of the Aveiro Harbor inlet channel, northwestern coast of Portugal, has been used to mitigate the erosion trend recorded on nearby beaches (from Barra to Costa Nova Beach) through direct placement of sand by using standard dredge equipment. The disposal activities of dredged material have been undertaken at two main sites: between the south breakwater and the 1st groin of Costa Nova (dumping area 1, DA1) and between the 3rd and the 5th groin of Costa Nova (dumping area 2, DA2).The sand was placed in the nearshore, between the ?2 and ?7 m Chart Datum, CD, contours.In this study, short- and long-term coastal morphologic changes in the sea bottom, in response to several nourishment operations and to the incoming waves, within the dumping area boundaries are investigated based on a data set of hydrographic surveys collected annually, just before and after the nourishments, between 2009 and 2015. Preliminary results describing the main morphologic changes, evolution trends, sediment budget variations, and nourishments performance are discussed using mainly Geographic Information System techniques. Overall, the analysis demonstrates that the short-term losses in the dumping areas (one month of interval) can reach 50% of the nourished volume, revealing a significant movement of the fill material towards offshore. Seasonal variations promoting cross-shore material exchange can also prevail and misrepresent the sediment balances, if the monitoring area is not comprehensive. Furthermore, some bathymetric analysis suggested that longshore transport gradients have moved the fill material from Barra beach to downdrift areas. All the obtained results contribute to the ongoing discussion about the effectiveness of nearshore sand placements especially in context of an energetic environment.     

Participants and non-participants of place-based groups: an assessment of attitudes and implications for public participation in water resource management

Policy-makers and public participation analysts face the question of who should be involved in environmental decision-making. Participants are often representatives of organized groups who share similar demographic and other characteristics. This raises concerns about the degree to which the interests and opinions of others are represented. The research presented here investigates the nature and degree of differences in environmental attitudes, specifically those toward water resource management efforts, among people who do and do not participate in place-based groups in metropolitan Portland, Oregon. Neighborhood associations and a watershed council were the focus of this research due to their involvement in land-use planning and resource activities. Thirty-four individual attitudinal judgments were evaluated, along with four indices representing attitudes toward resource protection goals, government, regulations, and economic measures. Survey findings revealed watershed council participants were more supportive of resource protection compared to others on all attitudinal dimensions except anthropocentric goals. In contrast, neighborhood association participants are relatively representative of non-participants except for heightened support for economic strategies. Participants in both groups exhibited higher socioeconomic status than non-participants. Written survey comments highlighted the perceived value of on-the-ground projects incorporating local input and feedback while interviews provided insights on how to expand participation in place-based groups and resource protection efforts.     

Quantification of self pollution from two diesel school buses using three independent methods

We monitored two Seattle school buses to quantify the buses’ self pollution using the dual tracers (DT), lead vehicle (LV), and chemical mass balance (CMB) methods. Each bus drove along a residential route simulating stops, with windows closed or open. Particulate matter (PM) and its constituents were monitored in the bus and from a LV. We collected source samples from the tailpipe and crankcase emissions using an on-board dilution tunnel. Concentrations of PM₁, ultrafine particle counts, elemental and organic carbon (EC/OC) were higher on the bus than the LV. The DT method estimated that the tailpipe and the crankcase emissions contributed 1.1 and 6.8 μg m^?3 of PM_2.5 inside the bus, respectively, with significantly higher crankcase self pollution (SP) when windows were closed. Approximately two-thirds of in-cabin PM_2.5 originated from background sources. Using the LV approach, SP estimates from the EC and the active personal DataRAM (pDR) measurements correlated well with the DT estimates for tailpipe and crankcase emissions, respectively, although both measurements need further calibration for accurate quantification. CMB results overestimated SP from the DT method but confirmed crankcase emissions as the major SP source. We confirmed buses’ SP using three independent methods and quantified crankcase emissions as the dominant contributor.     

Profiles of cuticular hydrocarbons mediate male mate choice and sexual isolation between hybridising <Emphasis Type="Italic">Chrysochus</Emphasis> (Coleoptera: Chrysomelidae)

Summary. Chemical signals frequently underlie sexual isolation between insect species. Our understanding of the evolutionary forces influencing these signaling systems is known for very few systems, challenging both our efforts to understand insect speciation, and our ability to predict long-term changes in the chemical communication systems of insects. Thus, we are in need of more systems in which both the chemical signals causing sexual isolation and the evolutionary forces driving sexual isolation are understood. Sexual isolation in the hybrid zone between Chrysochus cobaltinus and C. auratus has apparently increased in response to natural selection against hybridisation (i.e. reinforcement). Previous experiments suggested that this isolation was due, at least in part, to male preferences for conspecific females. Here, we confirm this role of male choice, and document that male mate choice in this system is influenced by cuticular hydrocarbon (CHC) profiles. Specifically, male C. cobaltinus responses to control cadavers and conspecific female cadavers painted with different cuticular hexane extracts, together with analyses of the composition of those extracts, revealed that male mate choice is governed by CHC profiles. Multivariate analyses of GC profiles demonstrated that those profiles are indeed both sex- and species-specific. Although GC-MS enabled identification and quantification of the specific cuticular hydrocarbons, we have not yet determined which individual compounds govern mate choice. Having established that CHCs influence sexual isolation in this system, we can now assess the evolutionary lability of these cues, which will inform both our understanding of speciation, and of the conditions under which the chemical signaling systems that influence mate choice in insects can evolve.     

A theoretical investigation of the pressure and temperature dependence of atmospheric ozone deposition to trees

Methods for describing the exposure patterns of forests to atmospheric ozone concentrations are compared with special emphasis on the situation at high altitudes, such as the Appalachian Mountains of the eastern USA. Limitations to the use of ozone concentration as mass per unit volume are discussed and a correction for temperature and pressure changes is derived. If identical ozone mass concentrations were measured at two sites separated by 2000 m elevation, the ozone flux at the lower site would exceed the flux at the higher site by 4-8% due to temperature and pressure effects on both air volume and ozone deposition velocity. It is recommended that ozone exposures be described in terms of 'flux-corrected' mass concentrations or volumetric mixing ratios when ambient ozone data from sites at different altitudes are to be compared.     

Impacts of biodiesel on pollutant emissions of a JP-8-fueled turbine engine

The impacts of biodiesel on gaseous and particulate matter (PM) emissions of a JP-8-fueled T63 engine were investigated. Jet fuel was blended with the soybean oil-derived methyl ester biofuel at various concentrations and combusted in the turbine engine. The engine was operated at three power settings, namely ground idle, cruise, and takeoff power, to study the impact of the biodiesel at significantly different pressure and temperature conditions. Particulate emissions were characterized by measuring the particle number density (PND; particulate concentration), the particle size distribution, and the total particulate mass. PM samples were collected for offline analysis to obtain information about the effect of the biodiesel on the polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon (PAH) content. In addition, temperature-programmed oxidation was performed on the collected soot samples to obtain information about the carbonaceous content (elemental or organic). Major and minor gaseous emissions were quantified using a total hydrocarbon analyzer, an oxygen analyzer, and a Fourier Transform IR analyzer. Test results showed the potential of biodiesel to reduce soot emissions in the jet-fueled turbine engine without negatively impacting the engine performance. These reductions, however, were observed only at the higher power settings with relatively high concentrations of biodiesel. Specifically, reductions of approximately 15% in the PND were observed at cruise and takeoff conditions with 20% biodiesel in the jet fuel. At the idle condition, slight increases in PND were observed; however, evidence shows this increase to be the result of condensed uncombusted biodiesel. Most of the gaseous emissions were unaffected under all of the conditions. The biodiesel was observed to have minimal effect on the formation of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons during this study. In addition to the combustion results, discussion of the physical and chemical characteristics of the blended fuels obtained using standard American Society for Testing and Materials (ASTM) fuel specifications methods are presented.     

A cost-effective weighing chamber for particulate matter filters

Particulate matter (PM) is a ubiquitous air pollutant that has been receiving increasing attention in recent years due in part to the association between PM and a number of adverse health outcomes, including mortality and increases in emergency room visits and respiratory symptoms, as well as exacerbation of asthma and decrements in lung function. As a result, the ability to accurately sample ambient PM has become important, both to researchers and to regulatory agencies. The federal reference method for the determination of fine PM as PM2.5 in the atmosphere recommends that particle-sampling filters be conditioned and weighed in an environment with constant temperature and relative humidity (RH). It is also recommended that vibration, electrostatic charges, and contamination of the filters from laboratory air be minimized to reduce variability in filter weight measurements. These controls have typically been maintained in small, environmentally controlled "cleanrooms." As an alternative to constructing an elaborate cleanroom, we have designed, and presented in this paper, an inexpensive weighing chamber to maintain the necessary level of humidity control.