Availability,addiction and alternatives: three criteria for assessing the impact of peak minerals on society

The concept of ‘peaks’ in the production of natural resources has attracted attention in the area of energy production, with concerns about ‘peak oil’ driving recent research and investment in alternative sources of energy. There are fundamental and important differences between a peak in the production of oil and peaks in the production of metalliferous minerals, but in both cases production changes from ‘easier and less expensive’ early in a resource’s life to ‘difficult and expensive’ as time progresses. The impacts of this change in production circumstances require critical consideration in the governance of national and sub-national mineral endowments.This paper develops a framework for evaluating the impacts of changing patterns of mineral production. The framework considers three criteria: availability of a resource (considering its geological characteristics and geographical distribution); society’s addiction to the resource (its centrality and criticality to economic, social and environmental systems); and the possibility of finding alternatives (whether the resource can be substituted or recovered). An initial assessment against these criteria provides an overview of how a production peak might affect the production of minerals in Australia and the impacts that this might have on the Australian economy.Assessing important resources against these three criteria will be imperative in future considerations regarding the roles minerals and metals play as service providers in our economic, social and environmental systems. Additionally, this analysis should prompt a reassessment of the value of minerals beyond economic measures. Indicators derived from these criteria will inform strategies that can address future changes in production characteristics – meeting challenges with strong governance, and realising opportunities with proactive policy.     

Global reforestation and biodiversity conservation

The loss of forest is a leading cause of species extinction, and reforestation is 1 of 2 established interventions for reversing this loss. However, the role of reforestation for biodiversity conservation remains debated, and lacking is an assessment of the potential contribution that reforestation could make to biodiversity conservation globally. We conducted a spatial analysis of overlap between 1,550 forest-obligate threatened species’ ranges and land that could be reforested after accounting for socioeconomic and ecological constraints. Reforestation on at least 43% (∼369 million ha) of reforestable area was predicted to potentially benefit threatened vertebrates. This is approximately 15% of the total area where threatened vertebrates occur. The greatest opportunities for conserving threatened vertebrate species are in the tropics, particularly Brazil and Indonesia. Although reforestation is not a substitute for forest conservation, and most of the area containing threatened vertebrates remains forested, our results highlight the need for global conservation strategies to recognize the potentially significant contribution that reforestation could make to biodiversity conservation. If implemented, reforestation of ∼369 million ha would also contribute substantially to climate-change mitigation, offering a way to achieve multiple sustainability commitments at once. Countries must now work to overcome key barriers (e.g., unclear revenue streams, high transaction costs) to investment in reforestation.     

Authorship and the Use of Biological Information in Endangered Species Recovery Plans

Abstract: We examined the relationship between authorship and the use of biological information in recovery plans under the U.S. Endangered Species Act. Approximately one-third of recovery plans were written solely by federal government employees, and one-third of plans included authors with university affiliations. The number of plans written strictly by federal staff increased significantly over time, whereas the percentage of plans that included authors with university affiliation remained unchanged. We tested three hypotheses posed by Clark et al. (1994) regarding authorship and endangered species recovery and found that (1) groups of authors from diverse affiliations are likely to strengthen the recovery planning process, (2) recovery plans lacking nonfederal participation suffer from inadequate attention to species biology, and (3) academic affiliation is strongly associated with the use of focal-species biology in recovery plans. Our results suggest that modifying the choice of participants in the recovery planning process may increase the use of biological information in recovery measures recommended in recovery plans and thus influence the eventual success of recovery efforts.     

Diameter growth models for mixed-species stands of Coastal British Columbia including thinning and fertilization effects

In this study, diameter growth models for three species growing in mixed-stands of Coastal British Columbia (BC), Canada, under a variety of silvicultural treatments were developed. The three species were: Douglas-fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii var. menziesii (Mirb.) Franco), western hemlock (Tsuga heterophylla (Raf.) Sarg.), and western redcedar (Thuja plicata Donn). A Box and Lucas model (1959) was initially fitted to the diameter growth series for each tree, as this model is very flexible and was based on processes reflective of the metabolic processes governing tree growth. Next, a random coefficients modelling approach (i.e., parameter prediction approach) was used to modify the estimated parameters for each species using functions of tree size and stage of development, site productivity, and inter-tree competition variables, while accounting for temporal correlation within trees. Impacts of fertilization on diameter growth were estimated by including the time since fertilization as an additional variable. Since state variables that are changed as a result of thinning were already in the model, accurate results post-thinning were obtained with no changes to the model. For the combined effects of thinning and fertilization, a two-step additive approach was used, where the state variables were changed following thinning and the diameter increment was modified for fertilization using the time since fertilization variable. Results indicated that multiple treatments sustain a change in growth for a longer time period following treatment than thinning or fertilization alone.     

Implementation of a marine reserve has a rapid but short-lived effect on recreational angler use

Changes in human behavior are a precursor to measurable impacts of no-take marine reserves. We investigated changes in recreational fishing site selection in response to the 2005 announcement of enforcement in a marine reserve in the Gulf of California, Mexico. We used a novel data set of daily self-reported boating destinations from emergency rescue logbooks for a recreational angling community from 2000 to 2008. Because the reserve system has no experimental control, we modeled the data two ways to test for robustness to model specification. We tested for changes in human fishing behavior with regression and fit a fleet-level discrete choice model to project a. counterfactual scenario. The counterfactual is the statistically constructed ex post expectation of the human behavior we would have observed if the reserve never existed. We included month and year fixed effects in our models to account for seasonal and interannual fluctuations in fishing behavior and catch rates. We detected a decrease in reserve use compared to the counterfactual, indicating that the reserve rapidly experienced a decrease in visitation. However, the reserve's effect to reduce trips diminished with time. These results indicate that the reserve is unlikely to meet its ecological goals without institutional changes that enhance compliance. This illustrates the value of human use data to understanding the processes underlying marine reserve function. We suggest that managers should consider human use with the same frequency, rigor, and tools as they do fishery stocks. Marine reserves directly affect people, and understanding human behavioral responses to marine reserves is an important step in marine reserve management.     

Sexual orientation harassment in the workplace: When do observers intervene?

Little is known about when and why observers of harassment incidents choose to intervene. On the basis of a model of observer intervention by Bowes‐Sperry and O'Leary‐Kelly (2005), we examined situational (directness of harassment, relationship to target, knowledge of target orientation, recurrence beliefs) variables as potential predictors of observer decisions to intervene when witnessing sexual orientation harassment. We also examined how costs and benefits analysis and recurrence beliefs relate to the level and immediacy of involvement. Relationship to the target, directness of the harassment, recurrence beliefs, knowledge of target orientation, and costs evidenced some connections to the nature of intervention. We discussed implications for organizations. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Partitioning tracer tests as a remediation metric: Case study at naval amphibious base little creek,Virginia Beach,Virginia

The partitioning tracer test (PTT) is a characterization tool that can be used to quantify the porespace saturation (S_N) and spatial distribution of dense nonaqueous phase liquids (DNAPLs) in the subsurface. Because the method essentially eliminates data interpolation errors by directly measuring a relatively large subsurface volume, it offers significant promise as a remediation metric for DNAPL‐zone remediation efforts. This article presents, in detail, the design and results of field PTTs conducted before and after a DNAPL‐zone treatment at the Naval Amphibious Base Little Creek, Virginia Beach, Virginia. The results from different tracers yield a relatively large range in S_N estimates, indicating notable uncertainty and presenting significant challenges for meaningful interpretation. Several potential interpretation methods are presented, resulting in an estimated DNAPL removal range of 15 to 109 L. While this range is large, it is consistent with the DNAPL removal (～30 L) determined from analysis of effluent concentration measurements collected during the remediation efforts. At this site, the initial and final S_N values are low, and the relatively inconsistent performance of the various tracers indicates that these levels are near the lower practical quantification limit for these PTTs; however, the effective lower quantification limit for these tests is unknown. Generally, an understanding of lower quantification limits is particularly important for interpretation of post‐remediation PTTs because S_N values are likely to be low (due to remediation efforts) and the S_N estimated from the PTT may be used to predict long‐term dissolved plume behavior and assess associated environmental risk. Partitioning tracer test quantification limits are test‐specific, as they are dependent on a variety of factors including analytical uncertainty, tracer breakthrough characteristics, and tracer data integration techniques. The results of this case study indicate that methods for estimating lower quantification limits for field PTTs require further development. © 2004 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.