Precursor-based hierarchical Bayesian approach for rare event frequency estimation: A case of oil spill accidents

Due to a scarcity of data, the estimate of the frequency of a rare event is a consistently challenging problem in probabilistic risk assessment (PRA). However, the use of precursor data has been shown to help in obtaining more accurate estimates. Moreover, the use of hyper-priors to represent prior parameters in the hierarchical Bayesian approach (HBA) generates more consistent results in comparison to the conventional Bayesian method. This study proposes a framework that uses a precursor-based HBA for rare event frequency estimation. The proposed method is demonstrated using the recent BP Deepwater Horizon accident in the Gulf of Mexico. The conventional Bayesian method is also applied to the same case study. The results show that the proposed approach is more effective with regards to the following perspectives: (a) using the HBA in the proposed framework provides an opportunity to take full advantage of the sparse data available and add information from indirect but relevant data; (b) the HBA is more sensitive to changes in precursor data than the conventional Bayesian method; and (c) using hyper-priors to represent prior parameters, the HBA is able to model the variability that can exist among different sources of data.     

Sustainable urban community development from the grassroots: Challenges and opportunities in a pedestrian street initiative

Abstract

A local sustainable development initiative to establish a temporary pedestrian zone within a Canadian urban community served as a research study into the efficacy of social capital in the development of a network for community action. This community-based initiative used social capital to overcome campaign obstacles and the campaign itself generated new social capital within the neighbourhood through the creation of adaptive networks of participants. The campaign succeeded in creating a part-time pedestrian-only space that serves as an educational example of change for sustainable community development that is replicable in other communities, and provides an example of alternative occupation of community space. Contrary to other literature, little evidence of “core burnout” was found although the network does continue to expend a large amount of effort and time on fundraising. While social capital is a powerful tool for local grassroots action, the availability of a critical source of economic capital may prove vital to the long-term success and sustainability of the network.     

Mobilisation and protest: environmental justice in Durban,South Africa

This paper examines the ability of civil society actors to champion environmental justice in an industrial risk society in South Africa by way of mobilisation and protest action. This paper presents viewpoints from key stakeholders at the Durban city level and three local case study sites to examine social capital relations to achieve environmental justice. It explores how civil society engages in social capital for mobilisation with itself and subsequent protest actions to engage with government and industry. The paper highlights that social actor response to engage in social capital for mobilisation and protests is best understood in relation to the socio-economic and political positioning of individuals or organisations.     

The emergence of the transition movement in Canada: success and impact through the eyes of initiative leaders

ABSTRACT

Originating in the UK in 2006, the Transition movement is oriented to local grassroots citizen-led efforts that prepare for and support a societal energy transition to a low-carbon future in response to climate change, peak oil, ecological degradation, and economic instability. Overlapping significantly with relocalization, degrowth/slow growth, local food, and related movements, and based on permaculture principles and a distributed network model, it embraces the opportunity to turn crisis into an opportunity to build more resilient, convivial, and vibrant local communities, declaring that “if it’s not fun, it’s not sustainable”. The Transition approach has spread rapidly around the world, including initiatives in over 100 communities and cities in Canada. This paper reports on the methods and results of a Canadian community-based research study aimed at understanding how and where the movement has taken root across the country, what Transition practice looks like, challenges and opportunities encountered, and lessons learned that could be applied within the movement and by others interested in the role of citizen-led initiatives for sustainability transition. Utilising a practice theory lens, drawing on an extensive web-scan of the movement’s online presence, a survey and interviews with initiative (co)founders, an e-survey of Transition members/participants, regional “structured story-dialogue” workshops, and key informant interviews, and informed by input from a Movement Advisory Group, we describe the research process and explore what success and impact mean to those most active in the movement.     

Hidden process models for animal population dynamics.

Hidden process models are a conceptually useful and practical way to simultaneously account for process variation in animal population dynamics and measurement errors in observations and estimates made on the population. Process variation, which can be both demographic and environmental, is modeled by linking a series of stochastic and deterministic subprocesses that characterize processes such as birth, survival, maturation, and movement. Observations of the population can be modeled as functions of true abundance with realistic probability distributions to describe observation or estimation error. Computer-intensive procedures, such as sequential Monte Carlo methods or Markov chain Monte Carlo, condition on the observed data to yield estimates of both the underlying true population abundances and the unknown population dynamics parameters. Formulation and fitting of a hidden process model are demonstrated for Sacramento River winter-run chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytsha).     

Does juvenile helping enhance breeder reproductive success?

Summary Helping-at-the-nest has been studied in a number of avian species. In many cases helping appears to enhance the reproductive success of the breeders. Because assistance is often provided to kin, this help also indirectly affects the success of the helper. In our study we examined the ways in which juvenile moorhens (Gallinula chloropus) assist their parents. We also conducted a removal experiment to determine whether the help provided increases reproductive success independently of parental and territory quality. Juvenile moorhens assist their parents by feeding younger sibs and by territory and predator defense. However, the results of our removal experiment suggest that this help has little effect on reproductive success (Table 2). Thus the helping effect originally reported in this population may be confounded by parental and territory quality.     

Effects of human footprint and biophysical factors on the body-size structure of fished marine species

Marine fisheries in coastal ecosystems in many areas of the world have historically removed large-bodied individuals, potentially impairing ecosystem functioning and the long-term sustainability of fish populations. Reporting on size-based indicators that link to food-web structure can contribute to ecosystem-based management, but the application of these indicators over large (cross-ecosystem) geographical scales has been limited to either fisheries-dependent catch data or diver-based methods restricted to shallow waters (<20 m) that can misrepresent the abundance of large-bodied fished species. We obtained data on the body-size structure of 82 recreationally or commercially targeted marine demersal teleosts from 2904 deployments of baited remote underwater stereo-video (stereo-BRUV). Sampling was at up to 50 m depth and covered approximately 10,000 km of the continental shelf of Australia. Seascape relief, water depth, and human gravity (i.e., a proxy of human impacts) were the strongest predictors of the probability of occurrence of large fishes and the abundance of fishes above the minimum legal size of capture. No-take marine reserves had a positive effect on the abundance of fishes above legal size, although the effect varied across species groups. In contrast, sublegal fishes were best predicted by gradients in sea surface temperature (mean and variance). In areas of low human impact, large fishes were about three times more likely to be encountered and fishes of legal size were approximately five times more abundant. For conspicuous species groups with contrasting habitat, environmental, and biogeographic affinities, abundance of legal-size fishes typically declined as human impact increased. Our large-scale quantitative analyses highlight the combined importance of seascape complexity, regions with low human footprint, and no-take marine reserves in protecting large-bodied fishes across a broad range of species and ecosystem configurations.     

The US National Cancer Institute's natural products repository; origins and utility

The US National Cancer Institute's natural products collection program has been running since 1986 and over the years the materials collected and processed have been stored in a repository that as a result of initial planning, has permitted the establishment of a national resource that is now being utilized as a drug discovery tool for any disease of interest to the NIH by researchers world-wide. This paper describes the history of the program.     

Preliminary Studies on the Population Genetics of the Central Stoneroller (Campostoma anomalum) from the Great Miami River Basin, Ohio

Molecular approaches are particularly useful for measuring genetic diversity and were applied to samples of central stonerollers obtained from sites along tributaries to the Great Miami River in Ohio. We used Random Amplified Polymorphic DNA (RAPD) analysis to assess the level of genetic diversity within and among these populations. RAPD analysis generates genetic profiles that were used to develop indices of genetic similarity. The RAPD method provides a cost effective means of generating an arbitrary sample of anonymous loci across the genome and generate a virtually unlimited set of loci for use in genetic analysis in the absence of specific sequence information. These attributes make RAPDs well suited for use in evaluating the diversity and assessing the potential vulnerability to exposure of populations across multiple spatial scales. The results demonstrate that a significant amount of structuring exists among populations analyzed to date and that a trend exists towards genetic diversity being an inverse function of site distance from the main stem as well as a being directly related to stream order. This indicates that populations farthest from main conduits or in lower order streams, and thereby most isolated, may be the most vulnerable populations to stressor exposure. It is hoped that information pertaining to genetic diversity, when integrated with other metrics of resource condition, will aid in making scientifically grounded decisions on resource management that enhance the probability of population survival and preserve natural evolutionary processes.