Attitudes towards risk and the optimal exploitation of an exhaustible resource

The exploitation of a nonrenewable natural resource, such as petroleum or mineral ores, is analyzed in a stochastic framework with price uncertainty. The market setting may be either monopolistic or competitive. We demonstrate that the rate of extraction varies directly with the resource owner's willingness to accept risk. Rish-preferring owners use the resource more rapidly than risk-neutral owners, who in turn deplete the resource more rapidly than risk-averse owners. It is also seen that the usual practice of increasing the discount rate to account for risk induces a more rapid rate of resource use, when in fact a slower rate of depletion is desired.     

WATER SUPPLY OPTIONS IN A NEW MEXICO WATER PLANNING REGION1

ABSTRACT: The population in the Jemez y Sangre Water Planning Region of New Mexico has reached the point at which the demand for water exceeds available supplies, particularly when precipitation is below average, as has frequently occurred in recent years. The desire to develop a sustainable water supply that relies on renewable supplies in wet years and preserves the water in storage for times of drought motivated a diverse set of stakeholders in the region to participate in regional water planning. The planning effort culminated in development of the Jemez y Sangre Regional Water Plan, which was adopted by municipal and county governments in the region. The plan assesses and compares water supply and demand in the region and recommends alternatives for protecting and restoring the existing water supply and addressing the pending gap between supply and demand anticipated by the year 2060. To convey to decision makers the alternatives available to solve the future water shortage, option charts were developed to portray the amount of water that could be obtained or conserved through their implementation. The option charts show that the projected gap between supply and demand cannot be met through one alternative only, but will require a combination of alternatives.     

MODELED IMPACTS OF DEVELOPMENT TYPE ON RUNOFF VOLUME AND INFILTRATION PERFORMANCE1

ABSTRACT: Development type has emerged as an important focal point for addressing a wide range of social, cultural, and environmental concerns related to urban growth. Low impact development techniques that rely heavily on infiltration practices are increasingly being used to manage storm water. In this study, four development types (conventional curvilinear, urban cluster, coving, and new urbanism) were modeled both with and without infiltration practices to determine their relative effects on urban runoff. Modeling was performed with a modified version of the Natural Resources Conservation Service (NRCS) runoff method that enables evaluation of infiltration practices. Model results indicate that urban cluster developments produce the smallest volume of runoff due to the large portion of land kept in a natural condition. Infiltration practices are most effective for small storms and in developments with Hydrologic Group A soils. Significant reductions in runoff can be achieved in all four development types if infiltration practices treat many impervious surfaces. As more infiltration practices are implemented, the differences in runoff among development types diminish. With a strategic combination of site layout and infiltration design, any development type can reduce hydrologic impacts, allowing developers to consider other factors, such as convenience, marketability, community needs, and aesthetics.     

FORPLAN: A FORest Planning LANguage and Simulator

A Forest Planning Language and Simulator (FORPLAN) has been developed to facilitate the use of simulation for integrating fire into the land management planning process.FORPLAN incorporates unique characteristics of previous systems, links numerous models and data bases, allows selection of variable resolution levels, and permits discrete time simulation of disturbances on plants, fuels, and animals. No previous computer experience is required of the user, sinceFORPLAN recognizes simple English words and phrases.