Potential climate change impacts on Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) off the northeastern USA

We examined the potential impacts of future climate change on the distribution and production of Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) on the northeastern USA’s continental shelf. We began by examining the response of cod to bottom water temperature changes observed over the past four decades using fishery-independent resource survey data. After accounting for the overall decline in cod during this period, we show that the probability of catching cod at specified locations decreased markedly with increasing bottom temperature. Our analysis of future changes in water temperature was based on output from three coupled atmosphere–ocean general circulation models under high and low CO₂ emissions. An increase of <1.5°C is predicted for all sectors under the low emission scenario in spring and autumn by the end of this century. Under the high emission scenario, temperature increases range from ～2°C in the north to >3.5°C in the Mid-Atlantic Bight. Under these conditions, cod appear vulnerable to a loss of thermal habitat on Georges Bank, with a substantial loss of thermal habitat farther south. We also examined temperature effects on cod recruitment and growth in one stock area, the Gulf of Maine, to explore potential implications for yield and resilience to fishing. Cod survival during the early life stages declined with increasing water temperatures, offsetting potential increases in growth with warmer temperatures and resulting in a predicted loss in yield and increased vulnerability to high fishing mortality rates. Substantial differential impacts under the low versus high emission scenarios are evident for cod off the northeastern USA.     

Spatial and temporal variability of greenhouse gas emissions from rural development land use operations

Climate change objectives of mitigation and adaptation are being mainstreamed into many policies and strategies around the world. In Europe, this has included the Rural Development Programme, which aims to tackle multiple social, economic and environmental objectives in rural areas, and the integration of climate change objectives adds another strand of complexity to the decision making process. When formulating policies determining the likely effectiveness of any particular measure can be challenging, especially with respect to the spatial and temporal variability of greenhouse gas emissions. This is a challenge faced by all countries and regions around the world. This study uses Europe as an example to explore this issue. It highlights the variability in emissions from land use operations that may be encountered under different conditions and time horizons and considers this in the context of policy formulation. The Optimal Strategies for Climate change Action in Rural Areas software has been adapted to derive net greenhouse gas emissions for rural development operations for all regions in Europe. Operations have been classified into five categories based on their benefit/burden over different time horizons. The analysis shows that it is important to understand the time period over which benefits or burdens are realised and determine how this fits with policy instruments, such as land management agreements and the permanency of actions. It also shows that in some regions an operation can have benefits, but in other regions it has burdens; thus, location can be critical. Finally, in the context of developing operations to meet multiple social, economic and environmental objectives, it is important to acknowledge that seeking options that only reduce emissions may not always be practical or possible. In some instances, we may have to accept an increase in emissions in order to meet other objectives. It is important that we evaluate the net greenhouse gas emissions of all operations, not just those aimed at climate change mitigation. We can then select those with the least burden in the process of developing optimal solutions to meet multiple objectives.     

The uses and implications of avian vocalizations for conservation planning

There is a growing recognition that animal behavior can affect wildlife conservation, but there have been few direct studies of animal behavior in conservation programs. However, a great deal of existing behavioral research can be applied in the context of conservation. Research on avian vocalizations provides an excellent example. The conspicuous nature of the vocal behavior of birds makes it a useful tool for monitoring populations and measuring biodiversity, but the importance of vocalizations in conservation goes beyond monitoring. Geographic song variants with population-specific signatures, or dialects, can affect territory formation and mate choice. Dialects are influenced by cultural evolution and natural selection and changes can accumulate even during the timescale of conservation interventions, such as translocations, reintroductions, and ex situ breeding. Information from existing research into avian vocalizations can be used to improve conservation planning and increase the success of interventions. Vocalizations can confer a number of benefits for conservation practitioners through monitoring, providing baseline data on populations and individuals. However, the influence of cultural variation on territory formation, mate choice, and gene flow should be taken into account because cultural differences could create obstacles for conservation programs that bring birds from multiple populations together and so reduce the success of interventions.     

Ten years of land cover change on the California coast detected using Landsat satellite image analysis: Part 2—San Mateo and Santa Cruz counties

Landsat satellite imagery was analyzed to generate a detailed record of 10 years of vegetation disturbance and regrowth for Pacific coastal areas of San Mateo and Santa Cruz Counties. The Landsat Ecosystem Disturbance Adaptive Processing System (LEDAPS) methodology, a transformation of Tasseled-Cap data space, was applied to detected changes in perennial coastal shrubland, woodland, and forest cover from 1999 to 2009. Results showed several principal points of interest, within which extensive contiguous areas of similar LEDAPS vegetation change (either disturbed or restored) were detected. Regrowth of evergreen shrub and tree cover was prevalent along the several long stretches of the coast highway (CA Route 1) between the cities of Half Moon Bay and Santa Cruz. A number of state parks areas showed measurable vegetation restoration as well. The most prominent loss of perennial coastal vegetation over decade was in the Pescadero Marsh area, where the continued presence of levees has historically reduced flood conveyance capacity into and through the marshlands. Based on these examples, the LEDAPS methodology was determined to be capable of fulfilling much of the need for continual, low-cost monitoring of emerging changes to coastal ecosystems.     

Metal contamination increases the sensitivity of larvae but not gametes to ocean acidification in the polychaete Pomatoceros lamarckii (Quatrefages)

Ocean acidification is not happening in isolation but against a background of chronic low-level pollution for most coastal marine environments. The reproductive and larval stages of marine invertebrates can be highly sensitive to the impacts of both environmental pollutants and ocean acidification, but very little is currently known regarding the potential impacts of combined contaminant and high CO₂ exposures on the health of marine organisms. Ocean acidification research to date has focused heavily on the responses of calcifying marine invertebrate larvae and algae, and as such the polychaetes as a group, despite their ecological importance, remain understudied. Here, we investigate the effects of elevated seawater CO₂ (pH range 8.1–7.4, plus an extreme pH of 7.2 in the sperm motility experiments), in combination with the environmental pollutant copper (0.002 μM), on the early life history stages of the intertidal polychaete Pomatoceros lamarckii from two populations. P. lamarckii sperm appear to be robust to elevated seawater CO₂. Whilst all three of the sperm motility end points measured showed a response to elevated CO₂, these responses were small and not linear. The percentage of motile sperm and sperm curvilinear velocity were significantly reduced in the lower pH treatments of 7.4 and 7.2, whereas sperm straight-line velocity (VSL) was mostly unaffected except for an increased VSL at pH 8.0. Fertilisation success was investigated using two populations from the South West (UK), one from Torquay and one from Plymouth Sound. Fertilisation success was slightly but significantly reduced at the 7.6 and 7.4 pH treatments for both populations (a 9.0 % reduction in fertilisation success from pH 8.1 to 7.4 for Torquay), but with a greater effect observed in the population from Plymouth Sound (a 13.33 % reduction in fertilisation success). No additional impact of 0.002 μM copper exposure on fertilisation success was found. Larval survival was found to be much more sensitive to elevated CO₂ than sperm function or fertilisation, and a significant interaction with copper exposure was observed. These results demonstrate the potential for polychaete larvae to be affected by predicted ocean acidification conditions and that chronic coastal pollutants, such as copper, have the potential to alter larval susceptibility to ocean acidification conditions.     

Economic-based projections of future land use in the conterminous United States under alternative policy scenarios

Land-use change significantly contributes to biodiversity loss, invasive species spread, changes in biogeochemical cycles, and the loss of ecosystem services. Planning for a sustainable future requires a thorough understanding of expected land use at the fine spatial scales relevant for modeling many ecological processes and at dimensions appropriate for regional or national-level policy making. Our goal was to construct and parameterize an econometric model of land-use change to project future land use to the year 2051 at a fine spatial scale across the conterminous United States under several alternative land-use policy scenarios. We parameterized the econometric model of land-use change with the National Resource Inventory (NRI) 1992 and 1997 land-use data for 844 000 sample points. Land-use transitions were estimated for five land-use classes (cropland, pasture, range, forest, and urban). We predicted land-use change under four scenarios: business-as-usual, afforestation, removal of agricultural subsidies, and increased urban rents. Our results for the business-as-usual scenario showed widespread changes in land use, affecting 36% of the land area of the conterminous United States, with large increases in urban land (79%) and forest (7%), and declines in cropland (-16%) and pasture (-13%). Areas with particularly high rates of land-use change included the larger Chicago area, parts of the Pacific Northwest, and the Central Valley of California. However, while land-use change was substantial, differences in results among the four scenarios were relatively minor. The only scenario that was markedly different was the afforestation scenario, which resulted in an increase of forest area that was twice as high as the business-as-usual scenario. Land-use policies can affect trends, but only so much. The basic economic and demographic factors shaping land-use changes in the United States are powerful, and even fairly dramatic policy changes, showed only moderate deviations from the business-as-usual scenario. Given the magnitude of predicted land-use change, any attempts to identify a sustainable future or to predict the effects of climate change will have to take likely land-use changes into account. Econometric models that can simulate land-use change for broad areas with fine resolution are necessary to predict trends in ecosystem service provision and biodiversity persistence.     

Local and interregional economic analysis of large US Department of Energy waste management projects

An economic simulation model was used to understand the local and interregional economic impacts of four alternative waste management technologies proposed for the US Department of Energy's Savannah River nuclear weapons site. The simulations of the four technologies, each of which will cost at least a billion dollars, were done for the period 2000-2015. The analyses show that differences in project costs are not directly reflected in local economic impacts because of differences among the technologies during the design, testing and construction phases; differences in locations where the design and pilot-testing would occur; and choices about how any of the technologies would be funded.