Predicting mosaics and wildlife diversity resulting from fire disturbance to a forest ecosystem

A model for predicting community mosaics and wildlife diversity resulting from fire disturbance to a forest ecosystem is presented. It applies an algorithm that delineates the size and shape of each patch from grid-based input data and calculates standard diversity measures for the entire mosaic of community patches and their included animal species. The user can print these diversity calculations, maps of the current community-type-age-class mosaic, and maps of habitat utilization by each animal species. Furthermore, the user can print estimates of changes in each resulting from natural disturbance. Although data and resolution level independent, the model is demonstrated and tested with data from the Lewis and Clark National Forest in Montana.     

A SCREENING MODEL FOR WATER RESOURCES PLANNING1

ABSTRACT: Techniques of optimization and simulation are merged to select the most efficient arrangement of components for regional water resources development and management. Application is made to the Elkhorn River Basin in Nebraska. The Basin extends over 7,000 square miles and includes 184 proposed reservoirs. Structure sizes, locations and operating policies are selected for optimal plans based on economic efficiency and regional development. Results indicate that substantial savings in time and costs over conventional planning techniques are effected. Agreement between model output and agency design values was noted.     

Environmental cleanup of the nation's former nuclear weapons sites: Unprecedented public‐private challenges at the largest facilities

In 1994, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) initiated a contract reform program intended to strengthen oversight capabilities and encourage the creation of contract and incentive structures, which would effectively facilitate the treatment of onsite contamination and waste. The remedia‐tion and disposal of these legacy wastes is the core of the Department's environmental manage‐ment mission (Government Accountability Office [GAO], 2003). Despite a concerted effort toward achieving the goals of the reform, progress has been slow. Many projects continue to necessitate cost and time extensions above those originally agreed upon. Although the Department insti‐tuted an accelerated cleanup program in 2002, promising to shave some $50 billion and 35 years from its earlier cost and schedule projections, there have been delays in critical project areas that call into question the attainability of the proposed reductions (GAO, 2005). Numerous explana‐tions have been offered as to why achieving these goals has proven so difficult, many of which have concluded that flawed contracting practices are to blame. This article concludes that the root of the problem is much deeper and that the organizational criticisms aimed at DOE are as much a legacy as the waste itself. Although the focus of this article is on large former nuclear weapons sites, these types of contracting and organizational issues are often found at other gov‐ernment and private complex hazardous waste sites. © 2006 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

ASPEN CLEARCUTTING INCREASES SNOWMELT AND STORM FLOW PEAKS IN NORTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA1

ABSTRACT: Clearcutting aspen from the upland portion of an upland peatland watershed in north central Minnesota caused snowmelt peak discharge to increase 11 to 143 percent. Rainfall peak discharge size increased as much as 250 percent during the first two years after clearcutting, then decreased toward precutting levels in subsequent years. Storm flow volumes from rain during the first two years increased as much as 170 percent but declined to preharvest volumes in the third year. Snowmelt volumes did not significantly change. Snowmelt peak discharge occurred about four to five days earlier after clearcutting, but the timing of storm flow from rainfall was not changed. Snowmelt peaks remained above precut size for nine years after clearcutting on an area undergoing natural regeneration to aspen saplings. Partial cutting - up to approximately one-half of the watershed - reduced peak snowmelt discharge because melt was desynchronized in cleared and forested parts. Clearing more than 2/3 of the watershed caused snowmelt flood peak size to double during years with snow packs in excess of seven inches of water that remained until a day when maximum air temperatures exceeded 60d?F.     

Critical Review on the Public Health Impact of Norovirus Contamination in Shellfish and the Environment: A UK Perspective

We review the risk of norovirus (NoV) infection to the human population from consumption of contaminated shellfish. From a UK perspective, risk is apportioned for different vectors of NoV infection within the population. NoV spreads mainly by person-to-person contact or via unsanitary food handling. NoV also enters the coastal zone via wastewater discharges resulting in contamination of shellfish waters. Typically, NoV persists in the marine environment for several days, with its presence strongly linked to human population density, wastewater discharge rate, and efficacy of wastewater treatment. Shellfish bioaccumulate NoV and current post-harvest depuration is inefficient in its removal. While NoV can be inactivated by cooking (e.g. mussels), consumption of contaminated raw shellfish (e.g. oysters) represents a risk to human health. Consumption of contaminated food accounts for 3–11% of NoV cases in the UK (~74,000 cases/year), of which 16% are attributable to oyster consumption (11,800 cases/year). However, environmental and human factors influencing NoV infectivity remain poorly understood. Lack of standard methods for accurate quantification of infective and non-infective (damaged) NoV particles represent a major barrier, hampering identification of an appropriate lower NoV contamination limit for shellfish. Future management strategies may include shellfish quality assessment (at point of harvest or at point of supply) or harvesting controls. However, poor understanding of NoV inactivation in shellfish and the environment currently limits accurate apportionment and risk assessment for NoV and hence the identification of appropriate shellfish or environmental quality standards.     

Climate change, aerobiology, and public health in the Northeast United States

The epidemiological implications with respect to climate change and public health (e.g., shifts in disease vectors) are beginning to be acknowledged. Less recognized however, are the potential links between climate, plant biology and public health. In addition to being affected by climate (e.g., temperature determines plant range), carbon dioxide (CO₂) represents the raw material needed for photosynthesis and its rapid increase in the atmosphere is expected to stimulate plant growth. While there are a number of means by which plant biology intersects with human health (e.g., plant nutrition), one of the most widely recognized is aerobiology; specifically, the ability of plants to both produce pollen and to serve as a substrate for molds/fungi (e.g., sporulation). The current review represents an initial attempt to coalesce what is known regarding the likely impacts of climate/CO₂ on plant pollen/fungal spores and associated allergic disease that are, or could be, specific to the Northeast United States. Although the current results indicate a number of potentially unfavorable effects, we wish to stress that the current data are based on a small number of experiments. Additional data are crucial to both reduce epidemiological uncertainty and to derive a robust set of mitigation / adaptation strategies.     

The effects of graduated driver licensing on hospitalization rates and charges for 16-and 17-year-olds in North Carolina

OBJECTIVE: To mitigate the high risk of motor vehicle crashes for young beginning drivers, over 40 states and the District of Columbia have implemented graduated driver licensing (GDL) systems that gradually and systematically ease teen drivers into higher risk driving conditions. Evaluations of GDL programs using motor vehicle crash data have demonstrated marked declines in crashes. The objective of this study is to examine the association between the implementation of the North Carolina GDL program and the rate of hospitalization, as well as hospital charges, for 16-and 17-year-old drivers. METHODS: Data were obtained from the North Carolina Hospital Discharge Database for the 26 months before and 46 months after the December 1, 1997, implementation of the GDL program. ARIMA interrupted time series analyses were used to model monthly hospitalization rates, controlling for the hospitalization rates of 25-to 54-year-old drivers. ARIMA analyses were also used to determine whether changes occurred in monthly total hospital charges. RESULTS: Among the 568 16-year-old hospitalized drivers, GDL was associated with a 36.5% decline in the hospitalization rate per population and a 31.2% decline in the total monthly driver hospitalization charges. Although a 12% reduction in the rate of hospitalizations was observed among the 615 17-year-old drivers, the analysis lacked sufficient power to be statistically reliable. No consistent change was observed in the 16-year-old driver total monthly hospital charges. CONCLUSIONS: The North Carolina GDL program was associated with a marked decline in the rate of hospitalizations and hospital charges for 16-year-old drivers. Following the implementation of GDL, over $650,000 in hospital charges have been averted each year for 16-year-old drivers. Analyses suggest these reductions were primarily the result of reduced exposure rather than an improvement in teen driving.