Will Observation Error and Biases Ruin the Use of Simple Extinction Models?

Abstract: Estimating the risk of extinction for populations of endangered species is an important component of conservation biology. These estimates must be made from data that contain both environmental noise in the year-to-year transitions in population size (so-called "process error"), random errors in sampling, and possible biases in sampling ( both forms of observation errors). To determine how much faith to place in estimated extinction rates, it is important to know how sensitive they are to observation error. We used three simple, commonly employed models of population dynamics to generate simulated population time series. We then combined random observation error or systematic biases with those data, fit models to the time series data, and observed how close the extinction dynamics of the fitted models compared with the dynamics of the underlying models. We found that systematic biases in sampling rarely affected estimates of extinction risk. We also found that even moderate levels of random observation error do not significantly affect extinction estimates except over a small range of process errors, corresponding to the region where extinction risk is most uncertain. With more substantial sampling error, estimates of extinction risk degraded rapidly. Field census techniques for a variety of taxa often involve observation errors within ±32% of actual population sizes. For typical time series used in conservation, therefore, we often may not need to be overly concerned about observation errors as an extra source of imperfection in our estimated extinction rates.     

Demographic Forecasting in Koala Conservation

Abstract: The koala currently needs conservation intervention. There is clear evidence of decline in many populations, but the existence of other stable or expanding populations offers the possibility of a variety of creative solutions to their conservation problems. The 1998 National Koala Conservation Strategy emphasizes the need to obtain demographic information and to use this information to assess management options for koalas. We need accurate diagnoses of the status of koala populations and forecasts of their demographic future with and without particular management actions. In a qualitative fashion, this process has been undertaken many times on a local and national scale. Quantitative demographic forecasting tools are increasingly available, and koala management could benefit from their application both at the scale of individual populations and more broadly. There is already a considerable body of suitable data on the dispersal, effects of normal and catastrophic environmental variation on reproduction and survival, and on the effects of habitat change. Demographic forecasting, however, is hampered because the full suite of information is rarely available from a single population. In two Queensland populations, retrospective population viability analyses provided forecasts that were in agreement with observed population trends. Work is needed to determine whether data from one population can be applied to other populations. Models can then be developed to make projections at a multipopulation level on the basis of local population dynamics and dispersal. Certain koala populations, because of their long history of study, offer the opportunity to test demographic models retrospectively. These tests will not only aid in fine-tuning the models for koala biology and data but will also assist with the more general process of validating the models.     

Poisoned plusiines: toxicity of milkweed latex and cardenolides to some generalist caterpillars

Summary. Larvae of Trichoplusia ni Hübner (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae) that ingested latex from Asclepias curassavica L. (Asclepiadaceae) often regurgitated and convulsed with spasms before becoming immobile and unresponsive. Some larvae required over a day to recover sufficiently to feed. Latices from four other plant species in three families were all deterrent, but none caused detectable poisoning. The toxicity of A. curassavica latex was evidently due to cardenolides because pure cardenolides had similar effects when ingested by T. ni. Other species of noctuid caterpillars (Rachiplusia ou Guenée, Anagrapha falcifera Kirby, and Autographa precationis Guenée) sometimes also suffered spasms and temporary immobility when fed A. curassavica latex. A more distantly related noctuid, Spodoptera ornithogalli, was deterred by the latex, but showed no overt physiological responses at the dosage tested. T. ni larvae failed to develop on intact leaves of A. curassavica, on leaves with latex canals deactivated by midrib severance, and on excised leaves. Similarly, larvae reared on excised A. syriaca L. leaves to the final instar died when transferred to A. curassavica leaves with either intact or severed midribs. The final instar larvae sometimes suffered from spasms and immobility even when confined on leaves with depressurized canal systems. Evidently, cardenolides stored outside the latex system suffice to poison larvae. We conclude that cardenolides in A. curassavica have potent physiological effects on some generalist caterpillars and that the presence of these compounds both inside and outside laticifers effectively protects the plant. Received 30 June 1999; accepted 18 October 1999     

影响土壤中微生物体氮的因子

综述了影响土壤微生物体氮的因子,以及微生物体氮与可矿化氮之间的关系。着重讨论了土壤有机质、有机物料、氮肥、作物根系、土壤温度和湿度对微生物体氮的影响及研究进展;评价了土壤微生物体氮与可矿化氮的关系的研究结果。     

环境保护利益博弈分析与实证——以长寿湖渔业养殖污染防治为例

运用博弈论和利益相关理论构建的环境保护利益博弈分析框架,剖析长寿湖渔业养殖污染中的利益相关者及其博弈。通过分析政府、企业、渔民之间的六种利益博弈形式,得出结论：在渔场的各种利益博弈中,渔民的驱利行为导致了长寿湖的“公地悲剧”;守法成本高于违法成本是环境执法不力的主要原因;对渔场企业的环境管理职能缺乏有效的激励和约束;现行的政绩考核制度导致政府部门在环境保护行为中政治利益失衡;环保政策必须与相应经济利益挂钩,用激励机制把环保内化为自觉的经济行为;合理引导环境主体的群体行为,会使环保工作更加有效开展。     

用废腈纶制备高分子增稠剂

以废腈纶为原料，经碱法水解反应和扩链反应制取乳液用高分子增稠剂。水解工艺条件为水解温度95℃，水解时间4h；水解配方为m(PAN)：m(NaOH)：m(H2O)=1：0．6：5；扩链反应温度95℃，扩链反应时间约4h。对不同乳液体系进行的增稠性能评价及应用表明，利用该技术制备出的高分子增稠剂性能优良，应用范围广泛。现已建成一套生产能力为1000t/a的工业装置。     

玉米中四种镰刀菌毒素系统检测方法的研究

本文用气相色谱仪同步检测霉变玉米中脱氧雪腐镰刀菌烯醇、二乙酰氧基镳草镰刀菌烯醇、Ｔ－２毒素和玉米赤霉烯酮四种镰刀菌毒素,并筛选出较理想的衍生化试剂和衍生化条件。确定从玉米中对极性不同的四种毒素都有较高回收率的萃取、净化程序。建立了玉米中四种毒素的系统检测方法。本方法对四种毒素的回收率均达到８０％以上。     

天津市中心城区集中供应管网末梢水的抗生素耐药基因污染特征研究

为了研究天津市中心城区集中供应管网末梢水的抗生素耐药基因(antibiotic resistance genes,ARGs)污染特征,采集了天津市中心城区6个采样点的管网末梢水样,分别采用微孔滤膜正压过滤法及核酸吸附-洗脱法富集水中细菌和胞外核酸后,利用实时定量PCR技术对15种胞内ARGs和胞外ARGs进行定量检测....     

城市污泥产品林地施用效果与风险评价

为探究城市污泥产品的林地施用效果,以北京排水集团生产的城市污泥产品(有机营养土、生物碳土、复合生物碳土)为研究对象,在北京市大兴区建立了城市污泥产品林地施用示范区.通过现场施用,研究3种城市污泥产品在不同施肥方式、不同施肥量下对林地环境及毛白杨生长的影响.结果表明,土壤的酸碱度与施肥前相比有小幅度的上升,最终稳定在7....