A case study predicting environmental impacts of urban transport planning in China

Predicting environmental impacts is essential when performing an environmental assessment on urban transport planning. System dynamics (SD) is usually used to solve complex nonlinear problems. In this study, we utilized system dynamics (SD) to evaluate the environmental impacts associated with urban transport planning in Jilin City, China with respect to the local economy, society, transport, the environment and resources. To accomplish this, we generated simulation models comprising interrelated subsystems designed to utilize changes in the economy, society, road construction, changes in the number of vehicles, the capacity of the road network capacity, nitrogen oxides emission, traffic noise, land used for road construction and fuel consumption associated with traffic to estimate dynamic trends in the environmental impacts associated with Jilin's transport planning. Two simulation scenarios were then analyzed comparatively. The results of this study indicated that implementation of Jilin transport planning would improve the current urban traffic conditions and boost the local economy and development while benefiting the environment in Jilin City. In addition, comparative analysis of the two scenarios provided additional information that can be used to aid in scientific decision-making regarding which aspects of the transport planning to implement in Jilin City. This study demonstrates that our application of the SD method, which is referred to as the Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA), is feasible for use in urban transport planning.     

企业安全文化评估与企业安全行为的质化研究

通过总结国内外各种不同的安全文化概念,归纳分析了国内外较为流行的近10种安全文化建立模式。在研讨文献的基础上,通过深入访谈、焦点小组与参与观察,归纳构造了一套共11个维度,总题项为152题的安全文化评估量表。通过对选定企业的实证问卷调查,进行统计分析,采用多元逐步回归分析等方法对安全文化各评核因素及整体安全文化进行预测,并以百分数呈现其整体的安全文化现状水平。通过基于扎根理论的各种质化研究方法,对案例企业的安全文化建设和企业安全行为进行研究,得到了7点关于企业安全行为的研究发现,并提出了相应的改进建议。     

电源变压器温升试验中（绕组法）的影响因素及不确定度的评估

本文中探讨的是根据绕组法计算电源变压器绕组温升的试验方法,以及对整个试验过程中环境、仪器设备、仪表、人为因素所引起的误差等对最终试验结果的影响,并对其测量不确定度进行评估。     

基层环境执法中环境行政强制问题的探讨

环境行政强制包括环境行政强制措施和环境行政强制执行.在基层环境执法实践中,环境行政强制措施尤其是环境行政强制执行存在许多困惑和问题,拓展环境行政强制措施,给予环保部门一定的行政强制执行权是提高基层环境执法效率和遏制环境污染的有效途径.     

交际教学法在大学英语教学中的应用

交际法已经发展成为一种世界规模的外语教学理论和教学方法,成为当今世界各国外语教学界普遍承认和接受的基本原则.通过对交际教学法的进一步研究分析,叙述了什么是交际教学法,阐述了运用交际教学法组织大学英语教学的模式和交际教学法在大学英语教学中的运用,指出教师应充分运用交际教学法的基本原理更好地来提高中国英语教学水平.     

洪灾对柳州可持续发展的影响及减灾对策

通过对柳州市洪灾特点的分析,探讨了洪灾对柳州市经济、社会可持续发展的制约作用,提出洪灾的治理必须走可发展的道路,采用工程措施和非工程措施相结合的对策。     

塔克拉玛干沙漠和青藏高原地区沙尘气溶胶光学特性及其加热率的时空分布特征

沙尘不同的垂直分布对大气的加热作用不同,通过卫星观测结合数值模拟,可以更清楚地了解沙尘辐射加热作用,有利于理解沙尘对该地区大气热结构的影响机制.因此,本研究利用CALIPSO气溶胶产品和SBDART模式,分析了2007—2020年塔克拉玛干沙漠和青藏高原沙尘气溶胶及其短波加热率的时空分布特征.结果表明,塔克拉玛干沙漠和青藏高原的年平均沙尘气溶胶光学厚度（DAOD,532 nm）分别为0.300～0.350和0.086～0.108,平均值分别为0.328和0.097.塔克拉玛干沙漠季节平均DAOD的最大、最小值分别出现在春季和冬季,而青藏高原的最大、最小值分别出现在夏季和秋季.塔克拉玛干沙漠和青藏高原的沙尘消光系数（σD）最大值分别出现在春季和夏季.2007—2020年,两地的σD在春季均呈增加趋势,而在秋季则呈减小趋势.春季和夏季的短波沙尘加热率（SW DHR）均大于其它两个季节,其中春季最大,塔克拉玛干沙漠上空冬季最弱,青藏高原上空秋季最弱.春夏季,青藏高原北坡存在较强沙尘加热层,其顶部高于5 km,其强度及高值区从春季到冬季逐渐减小.从年变化来看,春季短波加热率呈加强趋势,秋季呈减...     

Improve Compliance with Limited Resources by a Three-Group Inspection Regime

Frequent monitoring and relatively high fines are usually necessary to bring about improvements in environmental quality, but more challenging for many countries with limited human, material, and financial resources is to put them into practice. This paper developed a three-group model of a state-dependent enforcement in a repeated game to improve the policy implementation under limited inspection capacities. A certain number of firms are grouped (group 1, group 2, group 3) for different supervision intensity (e.g., the order of inspection probability corresponding to each group is p ₁?<?p ₂?<?p ₃) based on their environmental performance. The optimal policy parameters, such as inspection probability of each group and the probability that a firm found in compliance is moved to a better reputation group, were obtained as the basis for regulator’s policy making. Numerical simulations indicated that the three-group inspection regime can significantly increase compliance rate as compared with static enforcement with the same monitoring probability. Among the number of firms in each group under steady state conditions, group 2 had the most, group 1 was the second, and group 3 had the smallest. Analysis and prediction of a three-group reputation example provided a good experiment for the model. The results give a practical reference for the policy makers with inspection capacity constraints to achieve higher compliance rate.     

杭州城区环境空气中二口恶英浓度状况研究

依据2009年7月至2012年2月连续3年对杭州城区环境空气中二英（PCDD/Fs）采样分析结果得知,杭州城区环境空气中二英毒性当量质量浓度变化范围为0.13～0.55 pg TEQ/m³,均值为0.34 pg TEQ/m³。城区环境空气中二英浓度季节变化不显著,夏季略低于冬季;城区范围内不同功能区之间二英浓度差别不显著;连续3年监测结果未显现二英年度变化趋势。沙尘暴天气环境空气中二英浓度显著增高,日常天气和烟花爆竹集中燃放天气环境空气中二英形态分布存在明显区别,烟花爆竹集中燃放期间八氯代二苯并-对-二英（OCDD）占总质量浓度比例显著提高。利用IBM SPSS Statistics 19.0统计软件对24个监测结果聚类分析发现,杭州城区环境空气中二英的同类物分布具有明显的“源”分布特征。