Robust decision making, a growing approach to infrastructure planning under climate change uncertainty, aims to evaluate infrastructure performance across a wide range of possible conditions and identify the most robust strategies and designs. Robust decision making seeks to find potential weaknesses in systems in order to gird these through a combination of policy, infrastructure, and, in some cases, resilient or recovery strategies. A system can be explored by simulating many combinations of uncertain climatic and economic parameters; statistical clustering can identify parameter thresholds that lead to unacceptable performance. Often, however, uncertain variables are correlated, complicating the robustness analysis and casting doubt upon the thresholds identified. Here, we evaluate the impact of ordinary, hidden correlations in uncertainty parameters that drive simulation in robust decision making. We induced correlations between temperature and key climatic and economic parameters. We tested correlations of 0%, 30%, 60%, and 90% between temperature and the absolute value of precipitation, coefficient of variation, and downward surface solar radiation, and negative correlations between temperature and net variable benefit and the discount rate. We used a calibrated simulation model of a dam system regulating Lake Tana, Ethiopia, to compute the agricultural supply and net present value of the reservoirs. As the correlation strength increased, the results converged in a smaller region. We found that strong correlations depressed robustness scores of lower-performing alternatives and conversely increased results of the higher-performing alternatives. As the correlations increased in favorable alternatives, the failure thresholds became more extreme, speciously suggesting that only intense changes would result in poor performance. This overall analysis highlights the degree to which correlations of an interconnected climatic and economic system can impact outcomes of robust decision making and suggests methods to avoid confounding results.
Atmospheric carbonyls were measured at a semi-urban site in Orléans, France, from October 2010to July2011. Formaldehyde, acetaldehyde and acetone were found to be the most abundant carbonyls, with average concentrations of 3.1, 1.0, 2.0 ppb, respectively in summer, 2.3, 0.7, 2.2 ppb, respectively in autumn, 2.2, 1.0, 2.1 ppb, respectively in spring,and 1.5, 0.7, 1.1 ppb, respectively in winter. Photo-oxidation of volatile organic compounds(VOCs) was found to make a remarkable contribution to atmospheric carbonyls in the semi-urban site based on the distinct seasonal and diurnal variations of the carbonyls, as well as the significantly positive correlations between the carbonyls and ozone. The significantly negative correlations between NO x and O_3 as well as the carbonyls and the positive correlations between wind speed and O_3 as well as the carbonyls implied that the carbonyls and O_3 at the semi-urban site were probably formed during air mass transport from neighboring cities. 相似文献
Atmospheric peroxyacetyl nitrate(PAN), peroxypropionyl nitrate(PPN), and carbon tetrachloride(CCl4) were measured from September 2010 to August 2011 in Beijing. PAN exhibited low values from mid-autumn to early spring(October to March) with monthly average concentrations ranging from 0.28 to 0.73 ppbV, and increased from early spring to summer(March to August), ranging from 1.37–3.79 ppbV. The monthly variation of PPN was similar to PAN, with low values(below detection limit to 0.18 ppbV) from mid-autumn to early spring, and a monthly maximum in September(1.14 ppbV). The monthly variation of CCl4was tightly related to the variation of temperature, exhibiting a minimum in winter(69.3 pptV) and a maximum of 180.6 pptV in summer. Due to weak solar intensity and short duration, PAN and O3showed no distinct diurnal patterns from morning to night during winter, whereas for other seasons, they both exhibited maximal values in the late afternoon(ca. 15:00 to 16:00 local time) and minimal values during early morning and midnight. Good linear correlations between PAN and PPN were found in autumn(R = 0.91), spring(R = 0.94), and summer(R = 0.81), with slopes of 0.130, 0.222, and 0.133, respectively, suggesting that anthropogenic hydrocarbons dominated the photochemical formation of PANs in Beijing. Positive correlation between PAN and O3 in summer with the low slopes( O3 / PAN) ranging from 9.92 to 18.0 indicated serious air pollution in Beijing, and strong negative correlation in winter reflected strong O3consumption by NO titration and less thermal decompositin of PAN. 相似文献
The utilization of waste products as valuable materials was a technical imperative for waste management. In this study, the cost-effective attapulgite/carbon(APT/C) composite was developed for wastewater treatment using waste hot-pot oil as a carbon precursor through a facile one-step calcination process. The APT/C composite prepared at 300°C exhibited the excellent adsorption capacity and rapid equilibrium rate over a broad p H range for the removal of various pollutants. More importantly, the removal ratios of the composites toward Methyl Violet and tetracycline still remained 77.6% and 60.2% of the initial adsorption capacity after ten adsorption–regeneration cycles via a facile thermal regeneration strategy, respectively.Beyond all doubt, this research provided a feasible and economical way for the sustainable utilization of waste hot-pot oil in wastewater treatment, achieving the concept of disposal waste with waste and recycling. 相似文献