Persistence of Violation and Crash Behavior Over Time

This analysis examines the ability of previous offenses to predict future high-risk offenses, and similarly, the ability of crashes to predict future high-risk crashes, using the complete driver history data (up to 9 years) for a set of young Michigan subjects. As expected, those with previous ticketed offenses or reported crashes are at greater risk for future offenses or crashes; with a previous-year serious offense doubling the odds of serious offenses during the subsequent year, and a previous-year at-fault crash increasing the odds of subsequent-year at-fault crashes by nearly 50%. There is modest evidence that serious offenses and at-fault crashes may better predict subsequent behavior in females and in more experienced drivers. This latter finding is also evidenced by the fact that records of these young drivers are less predictive of subsequent driving history than is true for records of all drivers in general found in other studies. This suggests that, in the early stages of driving, offenses and crashes are, at least in part, attributable to inexperience, and hence, characteristic of all beginning drivers.     

Optimization of sampling for the determination of mean radium-226 concentration in surface soil

There are thousands of properties in the United States on which the soil has been contaminated to some degree with uranium mill tailings. An effort is now underway by the United States Department of Energy to identify sites contaminated with tailings and to perform remedial action when ²²⁶Ra levels exceed current guidelines. Because of the large number of sites involved, it is imperative that sample collection be performed in a cost-effective manner. In this paper we describe the results of a study in which we compared the efficiencies of different methods of sample collection in order to determine an optimal method for estimating the mean ²²⁶Ra concentration in soil. The study involved a field experiment in which extensive sampling was performed on sites known to be contaminated with uranium tailings. The experiment was designed to identify the advantages and limitations of composite sampling, the relative merits of random and uniformly spaced sample collection, the use of field gamma measurements for supplementing and reducing soil sample collection, and practical levels of accuracy and precision that can be obtained. Conclusions regarding gamma measurements are unique to ²²⁶Ra contamination. On the other hand, conclusions concerning composite sampling and random versus uniformly spaced sampling may depend primarily on the way the contamination was spread by man and hence may not be unique to ²²⁶Ra.Research sponsored by the Department of Remedial Action Projects, Office of Terminal Waste Disposal, U. S. Department of Energy under contract DE-AC05-84OR21400 with the Martin Marietta Energy Systems, Inc.ORNL—Grand Junction Office, Grand Junction, Colorado.     

A decision analysis approach to climate adaptation: a structured method to consider multiple options

Decision-making for climate adaptation operates in an uncertain environment. Formal processes to decision-making under uncertainty weigh the ability of a decision rule to achieve multiple and sometimes conflicting objectives in an evaluation procedure. Increasingly, computer simulation models are being applied for this reason, so that the effectiveness of decisions can be evaluated before actually implementing them in reality. In this paper, we develop a simple stochastic simulation model of beach recession under climate change in Australia and evaluate decision rules for beach replenishment in the context of three management objectives: (i) to reduce beach recession, (ii) reduce variation in beach recession, and (iii) do so cost-effectively. Results indicate that a decision to intervene and replenish the beach based on a trigger level would be effective at maintaining shoreline position, with relatively little variation, but did so at a relatively high cost of multiple interventions. A decision procedure to intervene at a fixed period resulted in greater shoreline position variation but constrained management efforts and costs. This structured approach offers an evidence-based process to decision-making that lays bare the assumptions upon which decisions are made. This, in turn, allows for a more complete analysis of all the uncertainties and better outcomes.     

Women’s self-perceived health and attractiveness predict their male vocal masculinity preferences in different directions across short- and long-term relationship contexts

Research has revealed that women’s self-perceived attractiveness positively predicts preferences for male facial and vocal masculinity, particularly in the context of long-term relationships. Other research has demonstrated that women who perceive themselves to be less healthy prefer male masculinity more than do women who may be healthier. As self-perceived health may predict self-perceived attractiveness, previous findings may appear to be contradictory. Therefore, we compared the effects of self-perceived attractiveness and self-perceived health on vocal masculinity preferences in long- and short-term relationship contexts. We found that although self-perceived health and attractiveness were positively correlated, self-rated attractiveness positively predicted long-term vocal masculinity preferences, whereas self-rated health negatively predicted short-term vocal masculinity preferences. While health and attractiveness may share a common basis, here we show independent potentially adaptive relationships with preferences based on relationship context. Such preferences are potentially adaptive as (a) masculine men may pass on inheritable immunity to infection to their offspring, which may be a relatively greater benefit for women in poor health; and (b) masculine men may be more likely to invest in relationships and offspring of relatively attractive women, decreasing the cost of choosing a masculine long-term partner for attractive women. These data resolve a potential conflict between health and attractiveness influences on the attractiveness of masculinity and highlight sophisticated individual differences in preferences.     

Facial asymmetry is negatively related to condition in female macaque monkeys

The face is an important visual trait in social communication across many species. In evolutionary terms, there are large and obvious selective advantages in detecting healthy partners, both in terms of avoiding individuals with poor health to minimise contagion and in mating with individuals with high health to help ensure healthy offspring. Many models of sexual selection suggest that an individual's phenotype provides cues to their quality. Fluctuating asymmetry is a trait that is proposed to be an honest indicator of quality, and previous studies have demonstrated that rhesus monkeys gaze longer at symmetric faces, suggesting preferences for such faces. The current study examined the relationship between measured facial symmetry and measures of health in a captive population of female rhesus macaque monkeys. We measured asymmetry from landmarks marked on front-on facial photographs and computed measures of health based on veterinary health and condition ratings, number of minor and major wounds sustained and gain in weight over the first 4?years of life. Analysis revealed that facial asymmetry was negatively related to condition-related health measures, with symmetric individuals being healthier than more asymmetric individuals. Facial asymmetry appears to be an honest indicator of health in rhesus macaques, and asymmetry may then be used by conspecifics in mate-choice situations. More broadly, our data support the notion that faces are valuable sources of information in non-human primates and that sexual selection based on facial information is potentially important across the primate lineage.     

Issues associated with possible implementation of Non-Invasive Prenatal Testing (NIPT) in first-tier screening: A rapid scoping review

In recent years, as the implementation and use of Non-Invasive Prenatal Testing (NIPT) have increased, the cost of the test has been decreasing. The cost of NIPT is expected to fall further in the upcoming years. As a result of the decreasing cost of NIPT, many jurisdictions may change their prenatal screening policies toward abandoning serum-based screening and instead, implement and support NIPT as the first-tier screening for all women. There are several concerns in replacing first-trimester screening with NIPT. In this scoping review, we aimed to map the existing knowledge about possible issues in the systematic implementation of NIPT as the primary method of first-tier screening and to assess if any jurisdiction has altered its policy and discontinued serum-based prenatal screening in exchange for NIPT. The Medline database (Ovid) and Google Scholar was searched and all the studies discussing, investigating, or reporting on the systematic implementation of NIPT as the primary method of first-tier screening were included. All the studies went through a two-stage screening process and included full-text articles were reviewed. We did not find any articles indicating a country or region that replaced traditional prenatal screening by NIPT. The included articles were charted, and the data about the possible issues in the systematic implementation of NIPT as the primary method of first-tier screening are summarized narratively and presented in tables in four categories. The findings of this scoping review may be informative for stakeholders and policymakers regarding recent changes in NIPT implementation policies around the world and may aid with developing policy for NIPT implementation with a broader perspective.     

Integrating attachment style,vigor at work,and extra‐role performance

This paper presents and tests a model of the impact of secure and insecure attachment styles (secure, counterdependent, and overdependent) on citizenship behavior and workplace deviance behavior through vigor at work. Employees who exhibit secure attachment styles are proposed to exhibit more vigor at work because of more effective use of physical, emotional, and cognitive resources which translates into increased organizational citizenship behaviors (OCBs) and decreased deviance. Insecurely attached employees are hypothesized to exhibit the opposite pattern. In a sample of 331 repair generalists in a large building facilities and maintenance organization, results indicate that attachment styles indirectly predicted OCBs and deviance through vigor. Implications of these results for attachment style, vigor at work, OCBs, and deviance are discussed. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Environmental Flows Can Reduce the Encroachment of Terrestrial Vegetation into River Channels: A Systematic Literature Review

Encroachment of riparian vegetation into regulated river channels exerts control over fluvial processes, channel morphology, and aquatic ecology. Reducing encroachment of terrestrial vegetation is an oft-cited objective of environmental flow recommendations, but there has been no systematic assessment of the evidence for and against the widely-accepted cause-and-effect mechanisms involved. We systematically reviewed the literature to test whether environmental flows can reduce the encroachment of terrestrial vegetation into river channels. We quantified the level of support for five explicit cause-effect hypotheses drawn from a conceptual model of the effects of flow on vegetation. We found that greater inundation, variously expressed as changes in the area, depth, duration, frequency, seasonality, and volume of surface water, generally reduces riparian vegetation abundance in channels, but most studies did not investigate the specific mechanisms causing these changes. Those that did show that increased inundation results in increased mortality, but also increased germination. The evidence was insufficient to determine whether increased inundation decreases reproduction. Our results contribute to hydro-ecological understanding by using the published literature to test for general cause-effect relationships between flow regime and terrestrial vegetation encroachment. Reviews of this nature provide robust support for flow management, and are more defensible than expert judgement-based approaches. Overall, we predict that restoration of more natural flow regimes will reduce encroachment of terrestrial vegetation into regulated river channels, partly through increased mortality. Conversely, infrequent deliveries of environmental flows may actually increase germination and subsequent encroachment.