Integrating data-driven ecological models in an expert-based decision support system for water management in the Du river basin (Vietnam)

In this study, classification trees were combined with the Water Framework Directive (WFD)-Explorer, a modular toolbox that supports integrated water management in a river basin to evaluate the impact of different restoration measures on river ecology. First, the WFD-Explorer toolbox analysed the effect of different restoration options on the abiotic river characteristics based on the water and substance balance embedded in the simulation environment. Based on these abiotic characteristics, the biological index Biological Monitoring Working Party for Vietnam was then predicted by classification trees that were trained on biological and abiotic data collected in the Du river basin in northern Vietnam. The ecological status of streams in the basin ranged from nearly pristine headwaters to severely impacted river stretches. Elimination of point sources from ore extraction and decentralised domestic wastewater treatment proved to be the most effective measures to improve the ecological condition of the Du river basin. The combination of the WFD-Explorer results with data-driven models enabled model application in a situation where expert knowledge was lacking. Consequently, this approach appeared promising for decision support in the context of river restoration and conservation management.     

Development of a biotic ligand model (BLM) predicting nickel toxicity to barley (Hordeum vulgare)

A biotic ligand model (BLM) was developed to predict nickel toxicity, affecting root growth of barley (Hordeum vulgare), in nutrient solutions. The extent to which Ca(2+), Mg(2+), Na(+), K(+) ions and pH each influenced nickel toxicity was determined. Higher activities of Mg(2+) linearly increased the 4d EC50 Ni (2+) , while Ca(2+), Na(+), K(+) and H(+) activities did not significantly influence Ni(2+) toxicity. Stability constants for the binding of Ni(2+) and Mg(2+) to the biotic ligand were obtained: logK(NiBL)=5.27 and logK(MgBL)=3.47. Further, it was calculated that on average 57% of the biotic ligand sites needed to be occupied by nickel to induce 50% root growth inhibition. Auto-validation of the BLM indicated that predicted EC50s differed from the observed EC50s by a factor of less than 2, indicating that the BLM concept may also be used to predict metal toxicity to terrestrial plants.     

Assessment of the overall resource consumption of germanium wafer production for high concentration photovoltaics

The overall resource requirements for the production of germanium wafers for III–V multi-junction solar cells applied in concentrator photovoltaics have been assessed based on up to date process information. By employing the cumulative energy demand (CED) method and the cumulative exergy extraction from the natural environment (CEENE) method the following resources have been included in the assessment: fossil resources, nuclear resources, renewable resources, land resources, atmospheric resources, metal resources, mineral resources and water resources. The CED has been determined as 216 MJ and the CEENE has been determined as 258 MJ_ex. In addition partial energy and exergy payback times have been calculated for the base case, which entails the installation of the high concentration photovoltaics (HCPVs) in the Southwestern USA, resulting in payback times of around 4 days for the germanium wafer production. Due to applying concentration technology the germanium wafer accounts for only 3% of the overall resource consumption of an HCPV system. A scenario analysis on the electricity input to the wafer production and on the country of installation of the HCPV has been performed, showing the importance of these factors on the cumulative resource consumption of the wafer production and the partial payback times.     

Heat wave hazard classification and risk assessment using artificial intelligence fuzzy logic

The average summer temperatures as well as the frequency and intensity of hot days and heat waves are expected to increase due to climate change. Motivated by this consequence, we propose a methodology to evaluate the monthly heat wave hazard and risk and its spatial distribution within large cities. A simple urban climate model with assimilated satellite-derived land surface temperature images was used to generate a historic database of urban air temperature fields. Heat wave hazard was then estimated from the analysis of these hourly air temperatures distributed at a 1-km grid over Athens, Greece, by identifying the areas that are more likely to suffer higher temperatures in the case of a heat wave event. Innovation lies in the artificial intelligence fuzzy logic model that was used to classify the heat waves from mild to extreme by taking into consideration their duration, intensity and time of occurrence. The monthly hazard was subsequently estimated as the cumulative effect from the individual heat waves that occurred at each grid cell during a month. Finally, monthly heat wave risk maps were produced integrating geospatial information on the population vulnerability to heat waves calculated from socio-economic variables.     

Historical processes constrain patterns in global diatom diversity

There is a long-standing belief that microbial organisms have unlimited dispersal capabilities, are therefore ubiquitous, and show weak or absent latitudinal diversity gradients. In contrast, using a global freshwater diatom data set, we show that latitudinal gradients in local and regional genus richness are present and highly asymmetric between both hemispheres. Patterns in regional richness are explained by the degree of isolation of lake districts, while the number of locally coexisting diatom genera is highly constrained by the size of the regional diatom pool, habitat availability, and the connectivity between habitats within lake districts. At regional to global scales, historical factors explain significantly more of the observed geographic patterns in genus richness than do contemporary environmental conditions. Together, these results stress the importance of dispersal and migration in structuring diatom communities at regional to global scales. Our results are consistent with predictions from the theory of island biogeography and metacommunity concepts and likely underlie the strong provinciality and endemism observed in the relatively isolated diatom floras in the Southern Hemisphere.