On the use of log-transformation vs. nonlinear regression for analyzing biological power laws

Power-law relationships are among the most well-studied functional relationships in biology. Recently the common practice of fitting power laws using linear regression (LR) on log-transformed data has been criticized, calling into question the conclusions of hundreds of studies. It has been suggested that nonlinear regression (NLR) is preferable, but no rigorous comparison of these two methods has been conducted. Using Monte Carlo simulations, we demonstrate that the error distribution determines which method performs better, with NLR better characterizing data with additive, homoscedastic, normal error and LR better characterizing data with multiplicative, heteroscedastic, lognormal error. Analysis of 471 biological power laws shows that both forms of error occur in nature. While previous analyses based on log-transformation appear to be generally valid, future analyses should choose methods based on a combination of biological plausibility and analysis of the error distribution. We provide detailed guidelines and associated computer code for doing so, including a model averaging approach for cases where the error structure is uncertain.     

Runoff transport of pyrethroids from a residential lawn in central California

An irrigation runoff study on a residential lawn was conducted in California, northeast of Sacramento, during the summer and fall of 2008 to investigate the contribution of turf uses of pyrethroids to residues in Californian urban creek sediments. This study examined how over irrigation (i.e., irrigation that produces runoff) in the summer season may transport recently applied pyrethroids. The study included liquid and granular applications of both bifenthrin [(2-methyl-3-phenyl-phenyl) methyl 3-(2-chloro-3,3,3-trifluoro-prop-1-enyl)-2,2-dimethyl-cyclopropane-1-carboxylate] and beta-cyfluthrin [Cyano(4-fluoro-3-phenoxyphenyl)methyl 3-(2,2-dichloroethenyl)-2,2-dimethyl-cyclopropanecarboxylate]. Generally, runoff did not occur at irrigation rates of 2.03 cm/h (0.8 in/h) but did occur when the irrigation rates were increased to about 3.81 cm/h (1.5 in/h), generating chemical losses in the first runoff event of up to 0.58 and 0.08% of applied for beta-cyfluthrin and bifenthrin, respectively. Chemical runoff losses dropped significantly between over-irrigation events with the third over-irrigation event chemical runoff losses representing 0.026 and 0.015% of applied for beta-cyfluthrin and bifenthrin, respectively. Runoff losses were generally less for liquid formulations than granular formulations but within a factor of three. Additionally, the study included a simulated winter rainstorm 8 wk after application. The low runoff losses from turf seen in this study suggest that other sources could be contributing to observed residues in urban streams. Other sources could include pyrethroids ending up on impervious surfaces, such as concrete driveways from off-target applications to turf, spills, and other poor handling practices, or pyrechroids applied directly to impervious surfaces for insect control.     

Genetic underpinnings of survey response

This study investigates the influence of genetic factors on survey response behavior. A pool of 558 male and 500 female twin pairs from the Minnesota Twin Registry (MTR) was asked to complete a paper‐and‐pencil survey of leadership activities. We used quantitative genetics techniques to estimate the genetic, shared environmental, and nonshared environmental effects on people's compliance with the request for survey participation. Results indicated that genetic influences explained 45% of the variance in survey response behavior for both women and men, with little shared environmental effects. Similar estimates were obtained after we partialled out potential confounds including twin closeness, age, and education. The results have important implications for response rates and nonresponse bias in survey‐based research. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

When evidence is not enough: the challenge of implementing fall prevention strategies

Problem

As the evidence-based movement has advanced in public health, changes in public health practices have lagged far behind creating a science to service gap. For example, science has produced effective falls prevention interventions for older adults. It now is clearer WHAT needs to be done to reduce injury and death related to falls. However, issues have arisen regarding HOW to assure the full and effective uses of evidence-based programs in practice.

Summary

Lessons learned from the science and practice of implementation provide guidance for how to change practices by developing new competencies, how to change organizations to support evidence-based practices, and how to change public health systems to align system functions with desired practices. The combination of practice, organization, and system change likely will produce the public health benefits that are the promise of evidence-based falls prevention interventions.

Impact on public health

For the past several decades, the emphasis has been solely on evidence-based interventions. Public health will benefit from giving equal emphasis to evidence-based implementation.

Impact on Industry

We now have over two decades of research on the effectiveness of fall prevention interventions. The quality of this research is judged by a number of credible international organizations, including the Cochrane Collaboration (http://www.cochrane.org/), the American and British Geriatrics Societies, and the Campbell Collaboration (http://www.campbellcollaboration.org/). These international bodies were formed to ponder and answer questions related to the quality and relevance of research. These developments are a good first step. However, while knowing WHAT to do (an evidence-based intervention) is critical, we also need to know HOW to effectively implement the evidence. Implementation, organization change, and system change methods produce the conditions that allow and support the full and effective use of evidence-based interventions. It is time to focus on utilization of implementation knowledge in public health. Without this focus the vast amount on new evidence being generated on the prevention of falls and related injuries among older adults will have little impact on their health and safety.     

Advanced geophysical underground coal gasification monitoring

Underground Coal Gasification (UCG) produces less surface impact, atmospheric pollutants and greenhouse gas than traditional surface mining and combustion. Therefore, it may be useful in mitigating global change caused by anthropogenic activities. Careful monitoring of the UCG process is essential in minimizing environmental impact. Here we first summarize monitoring methods that have been used in previous UCG field trials. We then discuss in more detail a number of promising advanced geophysical techniques. These methods – seismic, electromagnetic, and remote sensing techniques – may provide improved and cost-effective ways to image both the subsurface cavity growth and surface subsidence effects. Active and passive seismic data have the promise to monitor the burn front, cavity growth, and observe cavity collapse events. Electrical resistance tomography (ERT) produces near real time tomographic images autonomously, monitors the burn front and images the cavity using low-cost sensors, typically running within boreholes. Interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR) is a remote sensing technique that has the capability to monitor surface subsidence over the wide area of a commercial-scale UCG operation at a low cost. It may be possible to infer cavity geometry from InSAR (or other surface topography) data using geomechanical modeling. The expected signals from these monitoring methods are described along with interpretive modeling for typical UCG cavities. They are illustrated using field results from UCG trials and other relevant subsurface operations.     

Modeling population effects of the Deepwater Horizon oil spill on a long-lived species

The 2010 Deepwater Horizon (DWH) oil spill exposed common bottlenose dolphins (Tursiops truncatus) in Barataria Bay, Louisiana to heavy oiling that caused increased mortality and chronic disease and impaired reproduction in surviving dolphins. We conducted photographic surveys and veterinary assessments in the decade following the spill. We assigned a prognostic score (good, fair, guarded, poor, or grave) for each dolphin to provide a single integrated indicator of overall health, and we examined temporal trends in prognostic scores. We used expert elicitation to quantify the implications of trends for the proportion of the dolphins that would recover within their lifetime. We integrated expert elicitation, along with other new information, in a population dynamics model to predict the effects of observed health trends on demography. We compared the resulting population trajectory with that predicted under baseline (no spill) conditions. Disease conditions persisted and have recently worsened in dolphins that were presumably exposed to DWH oil: 78% of those assessed in 2018 had a guarded, poor, or grave prognosis. Dolphins born after the spill were in better health. We estimated that the population declined by 45% (95% CI 14–74) relative to baseline and will take 35 years (95% CI 18–67) to recover to 95% of baseline numbers. The sum of annual differences between baseline and injured population sizes (i.e., the lost cetacean years) was 30,993 (95% CI 6607–94,148). The population is currently at a minimum point in its recovery trajectory and is vulnerable to emerging threats, including planned ecosystem restoration efforts that are likely to be detrimental to the dolphins’ survival. Our modeling framework demonstrates an approach for integrating different sources and types of data, highlights the utility of expert elicitation for indeterminable input parameters, and emphasizes the importance of considering and monitoring long-term health of long-lived species subject to environmental disasters. Article impact statement: Oil spills can have long-term consequences for the health of long-lived species; thus, effective restoration and monitoring are needed.     

Reduction of pharmaceutically active compounds by a lagoon wetland wastewater treatment system in Southeast Louisiana

A number of pharmaceutically active compounds (PhACs) have been detected in the aquatic environment as a result of discharges of municipal wastewater. In the state of Louisiana, USA, many municipalities treat wastewater using natural systems, such as lagoons and wetlands, rather than conventional wastewater treatment technologies. Nearly all research to date has focused on the fate of PhACs in conventional treatment plants, not constructed and natural wetlands. In the wastewater treatment plant (WWTP) for Mandeville, Louisiana, USA, wastewater flows of 7600 m³ d⁻¹ are treated in a series of aeration lagoons (basins), followed by a constructed wetland and UV disinfection, before being discharged into a natural forested wetland (i.e. Bayou Chinchuba) and eventually, Lake Pontchartrain. Thirteen out of the 15 PhACs investigated were detected in the wastewater inflow to the treatment plant. Only 9 of the 13 compounds were above the detection limits at the treatment plant effluent. The concentrations of most compounds were reduced by greater than 90% within the plant, while carbamazepine and sotalol were only reduced by 51% and 82%, respectively. The percent reductions observed in the Mandeville system were greater than reduction rates reported for conventional WWTPs; perhaps due to the longer treatment time (30 days). Most target PhACs were not completely removed before discharge into Lake Pontchartrain, although their collective annual loading was reduced to less than 1 kg and down to ppb with significant potential for dilution in the large lake.     

Sources, fate, and toxic hazards of oxygenated polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) at PAH-contaminated sites

In this paper we show that oxygenated polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (oxy-PAHs) are important cocontaminants that should be taken into account during risk assessment and remediation of sites with high levels of PAHs. The presented data, which have been collected both from our own research and the published literature, demonstrate that oxy-PAHs are abundant but neglected contaminants at these sites. The oxy-PAHs show relatively high persistency and because they are formed through transformation of PAHs, their concentrations in the environment may even increase as the sites are remediated by methods that promote PAH degradation. Furthermore, we show that oxy-PAHs are toxic to both humans and the environment, although the toxicity seems to be manifested through other effects than those known to be important for polycyclic aromatic compounds in general, that is, mutagenicity and carcinogenicity. Finally, we present data that support the hypothesis that oxy-PAHs are more mobile in the environment than PAHs, due to their polarity, and thus have a higher tendency to spread from contaminated sites via surface water and groundwater. We believe that oxy-PAHs should be included in monitoring programs at PAH-contaminated sites, even if a number of other toxicologically relevant compounds that may also be present, such as nitro-PAHs and azaarenes, are not monitored. This is because oxy-PAH levels are difficult to predict from the PAH levels, because their environmental behavior differs substantially from that of PAHs, and oxy-PAHs may be formed as PAHs are degraded.     

Motivating children's cooperation to conserve forests

Forests are essential common-pool resources. Understanding children's and adolescents’ motivations for conservation is critical to improving conservation education. In 2 experiments, we investigated 1086 school-aged children and adolescents (6–16 years old) from the United States, China, and the Democratic Republic of Congo. Testing participants in groups, we assessed their motivation for conservation based on collective-risk common-pool goods games in which they were threatened with losing their endowment unless the group donation exceeded a threshold needed to maintain the forest. Extrinsic motivations, rather than intrinsic, tended to lead to successful cooperation to maintain a forest. Certainty of losing individual payoffs significantly boosted successful cooperative conservation efforts across cultures (success rates were 90.63% and 74.19% in the 2 risk-extrinsic conditions, and 43.75% in the control condition). In U.S. participants, 2 extrinsic incentives, priming discussions of the value of forests and delay of payoffs as punishment, also increased success of cooperative conservation (success rates were 97.22% and 76.92% in the 2 extrinsic-incentive conditions, and 29.19% and 30.77% in the 2 control conditions). Conservation simulations, like those we used, may allow educators to encourage forest protection by leading groups to experience successful cooperation and the extrinsic incentives needed to motivate forest conservation.