基于SARIMA模型和普通Kriging法对杭州市主城区PM2.5短期预测和制图

基于SARIMA模型对杭州市主城区内的7个站点和周边3个站点的PM_(2.5)浓度进行4 h平均的短期预报,并利用普通Kriging法对杭州市主城区PM_(2.5)进行空间插值和制图.在建立SARIMA模型时,用批量自动化的方法,使用R语言编程对夏季和冬季各360期的数据进行SARIMA(p,d,q)×(P,D,Q)6模型的参数的确定和拟合,来预测下一期的值.在10个站点分别进行120期的预测,做出真实与预测的时间序列图,在精度分析中,夏季和冬季PM_(2.5)浓度总体的平均绝对误差(MAE)分别为8.4μg·m~(-3)和14.8μg·m~(-3).在Arc GIS中,对每期的数据使用普通Kriging法,用球面模型拟合半变异函数,决定各个站点的权重,来对杭州市区内未知空间样点进行插值,最后生成完整的杭州市主城区PM_(2.5)短期预测图.本研究创新性地将SARIMA模型广义化运用到小尺度时间序列中,预报效果较好,并且批量自动化预测和制图的方法,可为今后的预测制图产品化提供技术支持.     

Did the Romans introduce the Egyptian mongoose (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Herpestes ichneumon</Emphasis>) into the Iberian Peninsula?

New finds of bones of the Egyptian Mongoose (Herpestes ichneumon), one from Portugal and one from Spain, were directly ¹⁴C dated to the first century AD. While the Portuguese specimen was found without connection to the Chalcolithic occupation of the Pedra Furada cave where it was recovered, the Spanish find, collected in the city of Mérida, comes from a ritual pit that also contained three human and 40 dog burials. The finds reported here show that the Egyptian mongoose, contrary to the traditional and predominant view, did not first arrive in the Iberian Peninsula during the Muslim occupation of Iberia. Instead, our findings are consistent with the hypothesis that the species was first introduced by the Romans, or at least sometime during the Roman occupation of Hispania. Therefore, radiocarbon dating of new archaeological finds of bones of the Egyptian Mongoose (Herpestes ichneumon) in the Iberian Peninsula push back the confirmed presence of the species in the region by approximately eight centuries, as the previously oldest dated record is from the ninth century. With these new dates, there are now a total of four ¹⁴C dated specimens of Egyptian mongooses from the Iberian Peninsula, and all of these dates fall within the last 2000 years. This offers support for the hypothesis that the presence of the species in Iberia is due to historical introductions and is at odds with a scenario of natural sweepstake dispersal across the Straits of Gibraltar in the Late Pleistocene (126,000–11,700 years ago), recently proposed based on genetic data.     

真菌LP-20对金属矿土壤镉锌的固定化作用研究

采用真菌分离纯化的方法从某重金属污染土壤中筛选分离出一株能够耐受并吸附二价镉、锌离子(Cd(Ⅱ)、Zn(Ⅱ))的真菌菌株LP-20。考察不同修复时间以及土壤p H值对固定化效率的影响。固定化效率以反应前后的镉锌有效态含量(利用TCLP提取液提取法测定)变化衡量。根据ITS(Internal transcribed spacer)r RNA基因测序结果,菌株LP-20属于Trichoderma spirale。LP-20对于Cd(Ⅱ)的固定效果普遍优于Zn(Ⅱ),并且对Cd(Ⅱ)的固定时间(10 d)少于对Zn(Ⅱ)的固定时间(20 d)。LP-20对于Cd(Ⅱ)和Zn(Ⅱ)的固定作用的最适宜p H范围为3~5。发现能够对土壤中镉锌离子具有良好固定化效果的真菌菌株对于发展土壤重金属污染的原位无毒无害化治理技术具有重要的实际意义。     

长期侧流提取对EBPR系统除磷及其磷回收性能的影响

实验采用交替厌氧/好氧(An/O)运行模式的SBR反应器,考察310 d内分3个批次提取侧流比为0、1/4、1/3、1/2的厌氧放磷上清液后EBPR系统的脱氮除磷效果及相应的磷回收性能.结果表明,整个实验阶段系统对COD和氨氮的去除较为稳定,出水均能满足《城镇污水处理厂污染物综合排放标准》一级A标准,总氮去除因厌氧阶段反硝化不断增强有所提升,达标率由88.2%显著上升至98.6%.然而,随着厌氧上清液提取次数的增多,系统释磷能力整体下降,但前两个批次中系统除磷均稳定高效,去除率在90%以上,相应地出水磷达标率大于75%,仅第3批次实验中侧流比为1/2时系统除磷率出现大幅波动,最低降为54.2%,并贡献该批次出水磷不达标率的60%,说明长期提取1/2侧流比不利于主流工艺出水稳定维持.研究还发现,长期进行侧流磷回收实验有利于污泥减量,且对污泥沉降性能影响不大.因此,在EBPR系统内长期提取适当侧流比的厌氧上清液以进行磷回收与主流工艺同步高效脱氮除磷具有可行性.     

典型绿洲不同土壤类型有机碳含量及其稳定碳同位素分布特征

土壤有机碳及其稳定同位素组成反映了生态系统碳循环的关键信息,对研究全球变化下陆地生态系统碳动态及碳资源的可持续发展具有重要意义.本研究以阿拉尔绿洲4种土壤类型为研究对象,测定不同深度土壤有机碳(SOC)含量和δ~(13)C值,探讨不同土壤类型有机碳分布、δ~(13)C_(SOC)丰度差异及其与土壤环境因子的关系.结果表明:(1)土壤整体有机碳含量由高到低依次为灌漠土、棕漠土、盐土、风沙土,且在表层(0~20 cm层)具有较大值;δ~(13)C_(SOC)变化范围在-26‰~-23‰,表层(0~20 cm)由正趋负为盐土风沙土灌漠土棕漠土.(2)土壤有机碳含量受土壤类型、深度及其交互作用极显著影响,δ~(13)C_(SOC)受土壤类型、交互作用显著影响;进一步交互效应检验中土壤有机碳受因素水平影响极强,同位素相对较弱.(3)冗余分析发现土壤有机碳与土壤无机碳、全氮、土壤含水量、容重均存在显著或极显著正相关关系,与C/N具有显著负相关关系;δ13CSOC与电导率存在显著正相关关系,与土壤无机碳、土壤含水量均存在极显著负相关关系.土壤环境因子的重要性排序为土壤含水量土壤无机碳容重全氮C/N电导率pH.分析得出土壤有机碳及其同位素在不同土壤类型中呈现出不同变化规律,其土壤类型的效应强于土壤深度,受土壤含水量影响最甚.     

重金属污染物在土壤中迁移规律及修复技术研究

世界各国都认识到重金属污染的严重性.多数国家开展了污染场地的修复工作,研究和开发出多种土壤重金属污染修复技术,重金属污染土壤修复技术有物理化学修复技术、植物修复、微生物修复技术和电动修复技术.但这些土壤修复技术的成本高,只重视土壤修复,土壤修复技术更重要的部分是地下水系统的修复,不能忽视地下水系统与土壤修复的完整性,否则会造成二次环境污染.本文在分析土壤中重金属污染物迁移规律的同时提出完整的土壤修复新技术CH-PRB工艺.     

The fragmentation patterns of maternal plasma cell-free DNA and its applications in non-invasive prenatal testing

The discovery of cell-free DNA (cfDNA) in maternal plasma has opened up new promises for the development of non-invasive prenatal testing (NIPT). Application of cfDNA in NIPT of fetus diseases and abnormalities is restricted by the low amount of fetal DNA molecules in maternal plasma. Fetus-derived cfDNA in maternal plasma are shorter than maternal DNA, thus leveraging the maternal and fetus-derived cfDNA molecules size difference has become a novel and more accurate method for NIPT. However, multiple biological properties such as size distribution of plasma DNA, proportion of fetal-derived DNA and methylation levels in maternal plasma across different gestational ages still remain largely unknown. Further insights into the size distribution and fragmentation pattern of circulating plasma cfDNA will shed light on the origin and fragmentation mechanisms of cfDNA during physiological and pathological processes in prenatal diseases and enhance our ability to take the advantage of plasma cfDNA as a molecular diagnostic tool. In the review, we start by summarizing the research techniques for the determination of the fragmentation profiles of cfDNA in maternal plasma. We then summarize the main progress and findings in size profiles of maternal plasma cfDNA and cffDNA. Finally, we discuss the potential diagnostic applications of plasma cfDNA size profiling.     

沈阳工业区夏季VOCs组成特征及其对二次污染形成的贡献

利用2019年和2020年夏季沈阳市工业区大气挥发性有机物(VOCs)的观测数据,研究沈阳市夏季工业区大气VOCs的组成特征并初步判断其来源,并利用最大增量反应活性(MIR)和气溶胶生成系数(FAC)法分别估算该地大气VOCs的臭氧生成潜势(OFP)及二次有机气溶胶生成潜势(AFP).结果表明,观测期间沈阳市工业区ρ(总VOCs)平均值为41.66μg·m^-3,烷烃、烯烃、芳香烃和乙炔分别占总VOCs浓度的48.50%、 14.08%、 15.37%和22.05%.浓度排名前10的物种累计占总VOCs浓度的69.25%,其中大部分为C2～C5的烷烃,还包括乙炔、乙烯和部分芳香烃.总VOCs整体上呈现出早晚浓度高、中午浓度低的日变化特征,峰值分别出现在06:00和22:00,11:00～16:00处于较低水平.由甲苯/苯(T/B)和异戊烷/正戊烷的比值判断工业区主要受机动车尾气排放、溶剂使用、燃烧源和LPG/NG的影响.工业区大气VOCs的总AFP为41.43×10^-2μg·m^-3,其中芳香烃的贡献最大;总OFP贡献值为1...     

无剩余污泥接触氧化法处理漂染废水的探讨

对漂染废水的处理，虽能做到达标排放，但其剩余污泥的生成量也过多，该文以上海信泰纺织品有限公司无剩余污泥接触氧化法处理漂染废水的实例，表明了既可提高污染物去除率，又能节省投资和运转费用，通过两年的运行实践，证明效果良好，在对酸化反应器的设计和有效控制方面，以及氧化反应器与酸化反应器的运行管理等方面也进行了探讨。     

重庆三峡库区农林复合经营可持续发展研究

提出重庆三峡库区实施农林复合经营的重要性及其可持续发展理论和结构类型，并针对存在的问题，提出农林复合经营可持续发展对策。