INTEGRATED RIVER BASIN OPTIMIZATION: MODELING ECONOMIC AND HYDROLOGIC INTERDEPENDENCE1

ABSTRACT: This paper presents an integrated optimal control model that optimizes economic performance of reservoir management in watersheds in which there are significant economic and hydrologic interdependencies. The model is solved using the General Algebraic Modeling System (GAMS). Results show that application of this model to New Mexico's Rio Chama basin can increase total system benefits over historical benefits by exploiting complementarities between hydroelectricity production, instream recreation, and downstream lake recreation.     

Hydrocarbon Measurements During the 1992 Southern Oxidants Study Atlanta Intensive: Protocol and Quality Assurance

Abstract

A major component of the Southern Oxidants Study (SOS) 1992 Atlanta Intensive was the measurement of atmospheric nonmethane hydrocarbons. Ambient air samples were collected and analyzed by a network of strategically located automated gas chromatography (GC) systems (field systems). In addition, an extensive canister sampling network was deployed. Combined, more than 3000 chromatograms were recorded. The SOS science team targeted for quantitative analysis 56 compounds which may be substantial contributors to ozone formation or used as air mass tracers. A quality assurance program was instituted to ensure that good measurements were being made throughout the network for each target compound. Common, high-quality standards were used throughout the network. The performance of individual field systems was evaluated during the intensive through the analysis of challenge mixtures. This methodology helped to identify and correct analytical problems as they arose.     

The in utero diagnosis and management of alloimmune thrombocytopenia

A case is presented in which percutaneous umbilical sampling (PUBS) was utilized in the second and third trimesters for the diagnosis and management of a pregnancy at risk for neonatal alloimmune thrombocytopenia (NAIT).     

A CALIBRATION PROCEDURE USING TOPMODEL TO DETERMINE SUITABILITY FOR EVALUATING POTENTIAL CLIMATE CHANGE EFFECTS ON WATER YIELD1

ABSTRACT: An evaluation was conducted on three forested upland watersheds in the northeastern U.S. to test the suitability of TOPMODEL for predicting water yield over a wide range of climatic scenarios. The analysis provides insight of the usefulness of TOPMODEL as a predictive tool for future assessments of potential long-term changes in water yield as a result of changes in global climate. The evaluation was conducted by developing a calibration procedure to simulate a range of climatic extremes using historical temperature, precipitation, and streamfiow records for years having wet, average, and dry precipitation amounts from the Leading Ridge (Pennsylvania), Fernow (West Virginia), and Hubbard Brook (New Hampshire) Experimental Watersheds. This strategy was chosen to determine whether the model could be successfully calibrated over a broad range of soil moisture conditions with the assumption that this would be representative of the sensitivity necessary to predict changes in streamfiow under a variety of climate change scenarios. The model calibration was limited to a daily time step, yet performed reasonably well for each watershed. Model efficiency, a least squares measure of how well a model performs, averaged between 0.64 and 0.78. A simple test of the model whereby daily temperatures were increased by 1.7°C, resulted in annual water yield decreases of 4 to 15 percent on the three watersheds. Although these results makes the assumption that the model components adequately describe the system, this version of TOPMODEL is capable to predict water yield impacts given subtle changes in the temperature regime. This suggests that adequate representations of the effects of climate change on water yield for regional assessment purposes can be expected using the TOPMODEL concept.     

How to do Animal Ethics

Many think doing animal ethics demands we see moral humanism as a speciesist prejudice of the kind found with sexism and racism. The only serious case for this rests on the Argument from Marginal Cases. We find that argument to the point, but show that properly understood it supports humanism. Understanding why it does this lets us see how we ought to go on in animal ethics.     

Modeling atmospheric nitrogen deposition and transport in the Chesapeake Bay watershed

Atmospheric deposition of nitrate nitrogen and ammonium nitrogen has been identified as a major factor in the decline of water quality in the Chesapeake Bay. Reports have indicated that atmospheric deposition may account for 25 to 80% of the total nitrogen load entering the bay. However, uncertainties exist regarding the accuracy of the atmospheric deposition inputs, nitrogen retention coefficients, and in-stream nutrient uptake rates used in these studies. This project was designed to reassess the potential inputs of atmospheric nitrogen deposition to the bay through the use of a high-resolution wet deposition model, improved wet and dry deposition and nutrient retention estimates, existing soils and land use data, and geographic information systems software. Model results indicate that the methods used in previous studies may overestimate the contribution of atmospheric nitrate and ammonium deposition to the Chesapeake Bay watershed (CBW). Wet and dry atmospheric nitrate and ammonium nitrogen deposition estimates to the CBW ranged from 52.7 to 141.9 and 41.9 to 60.1 million kg/yr, respectively, between 1984 and 1996. Dry and total atmospheric deposition loads to the watershed are substantially less than previous estimates. Estimates of the percent contribution of atmospherically deposited nitrogen to the Chesapeake Bay represent between 20 and 32% of the total nitrate and ammonium nitrogen load to the watershed from all nitrogen sources. While these estimates are lower than many other published estimates, regression analysis of model parameters, nitrogen retention coefficients, output, and measured in-stream nitrogen loads indicate that the calculated nitrogen loads may still be too high.     

Legal and technical defensibility of data and the Triad approach

The Triad approach was developed primarily to limit decision uncertainty during cleanups at hazardous waste sites. The fundamental principles of the Triad approach include development of a site characterization model and use of emerging technologies, which can provide data at a higher density than could be affordably collected using traditional data collection methodologies, to refine the model in essentially real time. New data formats are used collaboratively with data in traditional formats to iteratively pin down the relative concentration, nature, and extent of contaminants, thus minimizing decision uncertainties. This article examines the potential admissibility as evidence in legal proceedings of data collected by technologies designed to improve the density of information that are commonly used during the course of Triad‐type projects. The article explains that such criteria may vary depending on the purpose for which the evidence is to be used (e.g., as direct evidence to prove site conditions or as support for the testimony of an expert witness) and the court in which the legal proceeding would take place (e.g., federal court or state court). Admissibility in federal courts of data both as direct evidence and as support for expert witness testimony is covered. © 2005 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

Application of a coastal model to simulate present and future inundation and aid coastal management

This paper describes the application of coastal hydro-informatic modelling (using the TELEMAC Modelling System) to address management issues arising from projected hydrodynamical and morphological changes within a shallow, sandy estuarine environment. The model incorporates the complex interaction of ocean, terrestrial and atmospheric processes. The case study of the Dyfi Estuary, on the west coast of Wales, is highlighted here. As sea levels have risen locally and are predicted to rise further, a National Nature Reserve (Borth Bog), which has been reclaimed from tidal waters by embankments, will be at increasing risk from flooding episodes due to overtopping of these embankments at high tide. Present and predicted future tidal-fluvial scenarios have been modelled in the Dyfi Estuary in order to estimate the potential for flooding. In addition, areas of greatest velocity change and potential for sediment erosion/accretion have been identified. A further process that has been investigated is how salt marsh migration is affected by sea-level rise. This case study exemplifies some fundamental and complex physical processes inherent to estuaries, and shows how different management options can be assessed, before their implementation, through a modelling approach.     

Trophic strategies of garfish, Arrhamphus sclerolepis, in natural coastal wetlands and artificial urban waterways

We used carbon stable isotope and stomach content analyses to test whether snub-nosed garfish, Arrhamphus sclerolepis (Hemiramphidae), in the extensive artificial urban waterways of southeast Queensland, Australia, rely on autotrophic sources different to those in natural wetlands. Carbon isotope values of A. sclerolepis were similar to those in previous investigations, with enriched values in natural habitat (mean = −13.9‰, SE=0.6) and depleted values (−19.1‰, 0.1) in artificial habitat. A. sclerolepis in natural habitat consumed large amounts of seagrass during the day and night, and at night also ingested small quantities of crustacean prey. In artificial habitat, A. sclerolepis consumed macroalgae during the night and switched to invertebrates (terrestrial ants) in the day. Values of δ¹⁵ N in all the fish were 3–8‰ more enriched than sources. Mathematical modelling of feasible source mixtures showed that in natural habitat the bulk of the dietary carbon is obtained from seagrass, but the nitrogen is obtained from animal prey. In artificial habitat, carbon is obtained from a mixture of macroalgae and animals. We could not determine the nitrogen sources in artificial habitat of A. sclerolepis since, even after accounting for trophic fractionation of δ¹⁵ N, the values were outside the range of potential sources. If the types of animals ingested vary over time, perhaps one or more types of animal important in the provision of nitrogen was not sampled during the study. This study demonstrates that not only does A. sclerolepis occur in both artificial and natural habitats, but it uses the same strategy of bulk herbivory with the inclusion of smaller amounts of animal prey. This understanding of how ecological processes support fisheries production in artificial habitat improves the overall understanding of the effects of urbanisation on coastal food webs.