Integrated modelling of climate control and air pollution: Methodology and results from one-way coupling of an energy–environment–economy (E3MG) and atmospheric chemistry model (p-TOMCAT) in decarbonising scenarios for Mexico to 2050

This paper reports the methodology and results of an one-way coupling of the E3 Model at the Global level (E3MG) model to the global atmospheric chemistry model, p-TOMCAT, to assess the effects on the concentrations of atmospheric gases over Mexico of a low-GHG scenario compared to an alternative reference case with higher use of fossil fuels. The paper covers the data and methods, changes in atmospheric gas concentrations, the macroeconomic effects of the policies, and the outcome for pollution. The results suggest that in the conditions of underemployment in Mexico, substantial investment in low-carbon technologies, such as electric vehicles, heat pumps and geo-thermal power, could improve employment prospects, maintain growth, as well as reduce some of the risks associated with prospective falls in oil revenues. The concentrations of low-level ozone, both for Mexico-only and global decarbonisation scenarios relative to the original reference case, show appreciable reductions, sufficient to bring concentrations close to the WHO guideline levels. An indication is given of the potential scale of the benefits on human health in Mexico City.     

Heavy metals and couple fecundity, the LIFE Study

The effect of heavy metals at environmentally relevant concentrations on couple fecundity has received limited study despite ubiquitous exposure. In 2005-2009, couples (n = 501) desiring pregnancy and discontinuing contraception were recruited and asked to complete interviews and to provide blood specimens for the quantification of cadmium (μg L⁻¹), lead (μg dL⁻¹) and mercury (μg L⁻¹) using inductively coupled plasma-mass spectrometry. Couples completed daily journals on lifestyle and intercourse along with menstruation and pregnancy testing for women. Couples were followed for 12 months or until pregnant. Fecundability odds ratios (FORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were estimated adjusting for age, body mass index, cotinine, and serum lipids in relation to female then male exposures. FORs <1 denote a longer time to pregnancy. In adjusted models, reduced FORs were observed for both female cadmium (0.78; 95% CI 0.63-0.97) and male lead (0.85; 95% CI 0.73-0.98) concentrations. When jointly modeling couples’ exposures, only male lead concentration significantly reduced the FOR (0.82; 95% CI 0.68, 0.97), though the FOR remained <1 for female cadmium (0.80; 95% CI 0.64, 1.00). This prospective couple based cohort with longitudinal capture of time to pregnancy is suggestive of cadmium and lead’s reproductive toxicity at environmentally relevant concentrations.     

Recovery of the Kakerori: An Endangered Forest Bird of the Cook Islands

The Kakerori, or Rarotonga Flycatcher (Pomarea dimidiata) , is an endangered monarch flycatcher endemic to the island of Rarotonga, Cook Islands. This bird was reported to be common until the middle of the nineteenth century, but it declined before 1885 and was thought to be extinct early this century. A small population persisted in the rugged interior of Rarotonga; in 1987 the population stood at 38 birds but was in decline. We determined that introduced predators, especially ship rats (Rattus rattus) , were affecting breeding success. Through a program of experimental management, aimed mainly at rodent control, the population increased from a low of 29 birds in Spring 1989 to 60 birds in Spring 1993. The recovery can be attributed to both improved breeding success and increased adult survivorship.     

Systematic planning for Triad projects

This article examines specific systematic planning steps that can be used for designing and controlling Triad projects. Triad work strategies act to limit decision uncertainty, expedite schedules to meet project milestones, and reduce costs associated with cleanup activities. As a result, the Triad approach is rapidly increasing in popularity. Good project planning has always been seen as the cornerstone of successful Triad projects. However, the specific steps in the systematic planning process have not been extensively published. Demands of Triad projects, which attempt to make maximum use of innovative technologies and sequencing of activities in a learn‐ as‐you‐go framework, put new demands on regulators and project managers alike. Specific activities and relationships are identified to assist project managers with dynamic work strategies and real‐time measurements to support improved decision making. These include: assembly of stakeholders, a core technical team, and key decisions; development and refinement of a site model; use of demonstrations of methods applicability; development of dynamic work strategies and project sequencing; real‐time data management assessment and presentation; and unitized procurement of technologies and services. © 2004 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

Adsorption and desorption of lanthanum at sulfide mineral surface

Batch adsorption experiment with four sulfide minerals - Chalcocite galena, pyrite and sphalerite - were used to study for the adsorption and desorp-tion behavior of La (III) in the presence of EDTA, a model humic matter. Linear adsorption was found in all cases.The presence of soluble organic complexing ligand should reduce the mobility of La (III) in porous media and its transport to groundwater in the percolating soil solution. Binding mechanism is proposed to account for this preferential binding behavior.     

Community Tolerance Comparison As A New and Sensitive Ecotoxicological Tool

The demonstration of an increased tolerance to a pollutant is direct evidence that this pollutant has presented a selection pressure upon a population or community. Recently, pollution-induced community tolerance (PICT) has been applied to the benthic community in a metal-enriched estuary to establish causal linkage between observed changes in community structure and composition and the presence of copper. This paper describes the rationale and methodology behind applying PICT to the marine benthic environment, and shows it to be a sensitive ecotoxicological tool. It also presents a case study, demonstrating how a PICT investigation has aided the interpretation of changes in a benthic community, establishing a causal linkage between these changes in the community and the presence of a specific pollutant.     

Toward understanding the human dimensions of the rapidly changing arctic system: insights and approaches from five HARC projects

Human dimensions research focuses on the interrelationships between humans and the environment. To date, human dimensions research in arctic regions has concentrated primarily on local events and contexts. As such, it complements analysis elsewhere of adaptation and sustainable development within broad institutional, social, and environmental contexts. This paper reviews five projects from the Human Dimensions of the Arctic System (HARC) initiative, established by the US National Science Foundation in 1997. Common themes and findings are highlighted: climatic variations or change affect societies through interactions with human activities; population dynamics provide key quantitative indicators of social impacts and well being; and specific impacts and responses are the result of complex, context-sensitive interactions. Congruent approaches to the challenges of interdisciplinary research are also identified: multivariate time plots aid the integration of data, retrospective and prospective studies are part of a continuum and reinforce one another, comparative studies are essential for understanding general principles of human dimensions, and arctic residents can play a vital role in research and action.     

Spatially integrated assessment reveals widespread changes in penguin populations on the Antarctic Peninsula

As important marine mesopredators and sensitive indicators of Antarctic ecosystem change, penguins have been a major focus of long-term biological research in the Antarctic. However, the vast majority of such studies have been constrained by logistics and relate mostly to the temporal dynamics of individual breeding populations from which regional trends have been inferred, often without regard for the complex spatial heterogeneity of population processes and the underlying environmental conditions. Integrating diverse census data from 70 breeding sites across 31 years in a robust, hierarchical analysis, we find that trends from intensely studied populations may poorly reflect regional dynamics and confuse interpretation of environmental drivers. Results from integrated analyses confirm that Pygoscelis adeliae (Adélie Penguins) are decreasing at almost all locations on the Antarctic Peninsula. Results also resolve previously contradictory studies and unambiguously establish that P. antarctica (Chinstrap Penguins), thought to benefit from decreasing sea ice, are instead declining regionally. In contrast, another open-water species, P. papua (Gentoo Penguin), is increasing in abundance and expanding southward. These disparate population trends accord with recent mechanistic hypotheses of biological change in the Southern Ocean and highlight limitations of the influential but oversimplified "sea ice" hypothesis. Aggregating population data at the regional scale also allows us to quantify rates of regional population change in a way not previously possible.     

Spatial distribution of defense chemicals and markers and the maintenance of chemical variation

Exploring the spatial distribution of variation in plant secondary metabolites is critical for understanding the evolutionary ecology of biochemical diversity in wild organisms. In the present study, concentrations of foliar sideroxylonal, an important and highly heritable defense chemical of Eucalyptus melliodora, displayed strong, fine-scale spatial autocorrelation. The spatial patterns observed could promote associational effects on herbivore foraging decisions, which may influence the selection pressures exerted on sideroxylonal content. Multiple chemical traits have roles in certain eucalypt-herbivore interactions, and the spatial characteristics of the herbivore foraging environment are therefore determined by these different factors. We used a model of E. melliodora intake by common brushtail possums (Trichosurus vulpecula), based on the combined effects of two chemical traits, to explore this idea and found that the spatial patterns were different to those of sideroxylonal alone. Spatial genetic autocorrelation, examined using microsatellites, was strong and occurred at a fine scale, implying that restricted gene flow might allow genetic patches to respond to selection relatively independently. Local two-dimensional genetic autocorrelation, explored using a new heuristic method, was highly congruent with the pattern of local phenotypic variation observed for sideroxylonal, suggesting that the genetic variance underlying the sideroxylonal variation is similarly structured. Our results suggest that the spatial distribution of genetic and phenotypic variation could influence both the selective pressure imposed by herbivores on eucalypt defenses and the potential of populations to respond to natural selection. Spatial context should be considered in future studies of plant-herbivore interactions.     

Mesoscale trajectory modeling for the Brisbane airshed

The main objective of this research is to identify the possible pollutant transport trajectories from the source to the receptor and to identify the location of areas of high pollution potential for ozone. In order to identify the regions which would most probably be affected by ozone and its precursors, a mesoscale trajectory model is developed and forward air‐parcel trajectories originating from Brisbane city are estimated. Eight trajectories per day, starting at 00, 03, 06, 09, 12, 15, 18 and 21 hours, are calculated for one complete calendar year. The probability distribution of trajectories shows seasonal and diurnal characteristics and prevailing transport routes of air pollution. Computer‐driven trajectories indicate that air parcels are concentrated in a region between mountainous ranges in the West and islands in the East. This study identifies potential pollutant transport paths and zones of high concentrations that would assist planners in selecting appropriate areas for future industrial and urban development.