Application of a coastal model to simulate present and future inundation and aid coastal management

This paper describes the application of coastal hydro-informatic modelling (using the TELEMAC Modelling System) to address management issues arising from projected hydrodynamical and morphological changes within a shallow, sandy estuarine environment. The model incorporates the complex interaction of ocean, terrestrial and atmospheric processes. The case study of the Dyfi Estuary, on the west coast of Wales, is highlighted here. As sea levels have risen locally and are predicted to rise further, a National Nature Reserve (Borth Bog), which has been reclaimed from tidal waters by embankments, will be at increasing risk from flooding episodes due to overtopping of these embankments at high tide. Present and predicted future tidal-fluvial scenarios have been modelled in the Dyfi Estuary in order to estimate the potential for flooding. In addition, areas of greatest velocity change and potential for sediment erosion/accretion have been identified. A further process that has been investigated is how salt marsh migration is affected by sea-level rise. This case study exemplifies some fundamental and complex physical processes inherent to estuaries, and shows how different management options can be assessed, before their implementation, through a modelling approach.     

Habitat selectivity of megalopae and juvenile mud crabs (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Scylla serrata</Emphasis>): implications for recruitment mechanism

Megalopae of several crab species exhibit active habitat selection when settling. These megalopae usually select structurally complex habitats which can provide refuge and food. The portunid mud crab, Scylla serrata, is commonly found within the muddy estuaries of the Indo-West Pacific after attaining a carapace width >40 mm. Despite substantial efforts, the recruitment mechanism of juvenile mud crabs to estuaries is not understood because their megalopae and early stage crablets (carapace width <30 mm) are rarely found. We used laboratory experiments to determine whether megalopae and early stage crablets are selective among three estuarine habitats which commonly occur in Queensland, Australia. These animals were placed in arenas where they had a choice of habitats: seagrass, mud or sand, and arenas where they had no choice. Contrary to the associations exhibited by other portunid crab megalopae, S. serrata megalopae were not selective among these estuarine habitats, suggesting that they tend not to encounter these habitats, or, gain no advantage by selecting one over the others. The crablets, however, strongly selected seagrass, suggesting that residing within seagrass is beneficial to the crablets and likely increases survival. This supports the model that for S. serrata, crablets and not megalopae tend to colonise estuaries, since a selective behaviour has evolved within crablets but not megalopae.     

Soils, climate change and the OECD

Some concepts of sustainability applied to soils are given in relation to the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) Co-operative Research Programme 'Biological Resource Management for Sustainable Agricultural Systems'. The application of these concepts to climate change will be discussed in relation to seven high-profile papers published over the past 12 months. It is argued that multi-disciplinary (including social science) approaches are needed to address the issues. There is also a brief discussion on biomass energy in terms of soil sustainability and climate change.     

A method to estimate pre-exploitation population size

Antarctic fur seals (Arctocephalus gazella) were commercially exploited on the subantarctic island of South Georgia for over 100 years and nearly driven to extinction. Since the cessation of harvesting, however, their populations have rebounded, and they are now often considered a nuisance species whose impact on the terrestrial landscape should be mitigated. Any evaluation of their current population requires the context provided by their historic, pre-exploitation abundance, lest ecologists fall prey to shifting baseline syndrome in which their perspective on current abundance is compared only with an altered state resulting from past anthropogenic disturbance. Estimating pre-exploitation abundance is critical to defining species recovery and setting recovery targets, both of which are needed for the International Union for the Conservation of Nature's recent efforts to develop a green list of recovering species. To address this issue, we reconstructed the South Georgia fur seal harvest from 1786 to 1908 from ship logbooks and other historical records and interpolated missing harvest data as necessary with a generalized linear model fit to the historical record. Using an approximate Bayesian computation framework, harvest data, and a stochastic age-structured population model, we estimated the pre-exploitation abundance of Antarctic fur seals on South Georgia was 2.5 million females (95% CI 1.5–3.5 million). This estimate is similar to recent abundance estimates, and suggests current populations, and the ecological consequences of so many fur seals on the island, may be similar to conditions prior to human harvest. Although the historic archive on the fur sealing era is unavoidably patchy, the use of archival records is essential for reconstructing the past and, correspondingly, to understanding the present. Article impact statement: Defining species recovery requires an understanding of baseline population state, which can be estimated through statistical methods.     

Spatio-temporal patterns of juvenile marine turtle occurrence in waters of the European continental shelf

We present data spanning approximately 100 years regarding the spatial and temporal occurrence of marine turtle sightings and strandings in the northeast Atlantic from two public recording schemes and demonstrate potential signals of changing population status. Records of loggerhead (n = 317) and Kemp’s ridley (n = 44) turtles occurring on the European continental shelf were most prevalent during the autumn and winter, when waters were coolest. In contrast, endothermic leatherback turtles (n = 1,668) were most common during the summer. Analysis of the spatial distribution of hard-shell marine turtle sightings and strandings highlights a pattern of decreasing records with increasing latitude. The spatial distribution of sighting and stranding records indicates that arrival in waters of the European continental shelf is most likely driven by North Atlantic current systems. Future patterns of spatial-temporal distribution, gathered from the periphery of juvenile marine turtles habitat range, may allow for a broader assessment of the future impacts of global climate change on species range and population size.     

Nutrient budgets: sustainability assessment of rainfed lowland rice-based systems in northeast Thailand

In northeast Thailand, the sustainability of rainfed lowland rice-based systems, the dominant land-use system (LUS) in the region, is a concern for the welfare of the population in this relatively poor region. Poor soil fertility and low inputs are seen as major causes of this lack of sustainability. In this context, the assessment of nutrient budgets is seen as a powerful tool for the assessment of critical components of the sustainability of this particular LUS. Biophysical, socioeconomic, and management-related data on the farming systems were collected for 30 farms in Ubon Ratchathani Province, northeast Thailand. A relational database system (RDBS) was developed to manage and analyze the data. The RDBS includes a calculation procedure for the semi-automatic generation of partial nutrient balances. Partial nutrient balances are good indicators for some critical components of sustainability, and important for decision support on soil fertility management when considered with the additional factors that are required for a full nutrient balance.For the rice-based systems of 30 farms, mean partial balances were 12 kg N ha⁻¹, 8 kg P ha⁻¹, and 7 kg K ha⁻¹ per year. Large variations in partial N, P, and K balances exist among different farms and, even more so, for different land utilization types (LUTs). The LUTs are distinct cropping system–management combinations that occur down to the subfield level. Many of the partial balances assessed were negative.Farmers manage nutrients for similar parcels of land in very different ways. This results in the observed large variation in partial nutrient balances, even for the same type of land use within the same farm. These results confirm the high inter-farm and intra-farm variability for partial balances of N, P, and K of several preliminary studies. Farmer interviews and field surveys revealed that different socioeconomic factors appear to be related with inter- and intra-farm variability in nutrient budgets. In addition, the socioeconomic component of the case study revealed that diversification of income sources, particularly off-farm employment, had a larger impact on household income than rice production. Furthermore, while many less well-off households had a greater reliance on rice production, many farms with high off-farm and non-rice farm income had a higher total production of rice.The nutrient balance approach, starting with partial nutrient balances, may become an important component of a dynamic and site-specific decision support tool (DST) for nutrient management, and a relational database of the form used in this study may become a key element.     

A mark-recapture study of male<Emphasis Type="Italic"> Colletes cunicularius</Emphasis> bees: implications for pollination by sexual deception

An unusual pollination strategy is pollination by sexual deception in which orchids sexually attract male insects as pollinators. One gap in knowledge concerns the pattern and extent of pollinator movement among these sexually deceptive flowers and how this translates to pollen and gene flow. Our aim was to use mark and recapture techniques to investigate the behavior and movement of male Colletes cunicularius, an important bee pollinator of Ophrys. Our study site was located in northern Switzerland where a large population of the bees was nesting. Within two plots, (10×40 m), we marked bees with different colors and numbered tags. Seventeen percent of the 577 marked bees were recaptured over a period of 1 to a maximum of 11 days. However, the number of recaptures dropped dramatically after 3–5 days, suggesting an average lifetime of less than 10 days. Mark-recapture distances varied from 0 to 50 m, with a mean of 5 m. Our findings show that individual male bees patrol a specific and restricted region of the nesting area in search of mates. This mark-recapture study provides the first clues about the potential movement of pollen within populations of Ophrys orchids. We predict that orchid-pollen movements mediated by bees will be similar to the mark-recapture distances in this study. Parallel studies within orchid populations, including direct studies of pollen movement, are now required to better understand how pollinator mate-searching behavior translates to pollination success and pollen movement within sexually deceptive orchid populations.Communicated by R.F.A. Moritz     

Food webs supporting fish over subtropical mudflats are based on transported organic matter not in situ microalgae

We present here a morpho-functional and behavioural study of the feeding adaptations developed by a deep-sea invertebrate, the caprellid amphipod Parvipalpus major, in an environment temporarily deprived of external food supply. The animals were taken intact from bathyal muddy sediments using a classic Barnett multi-tub corer at depths ranging from 424 to 761 m. They were transferred to the laboratory, kept in tanks with their native sediment at a constant temperature (10°C) and their behaviour was studied by video analysis. Their morphology consists of elongated somites, with pereopods 5–7 ending in elongated curved dactyls, which are longer than those of more coastal species. Analysis of the literature shows that the largest caprellids inhabit the deepest and muddiest zones. This particular morpho-functional adaptation enables the species to adopt an originally erect and steady stance by fixing onto soft muddy sediment, thus improving its ability to prospect for food in its surrounding environment. For the most part, P. major balances its body at its anchorage point as it searches for food in the water column, but occasionally it bends down to the substrate, and tosses some sediment into the water column. Food is then selected from the particles that float down. Presumably, after exhausting the food supply in one area, the animal jumps into the water column and moves about a body length further on. This would appear to be an original strategy for foraging larger areas of organic matter from fixed, but temporary, positions. Finally, we show that caprellids are able to practise coprophagy. To conclude, we suggest that there is a positive correlation between body elongation and depth, with improved anchoring and coprophagy being an optimal way to conserve energy in conditions of limited diet and improve adaptation to life on deep-sea muddy bottoms.Communicated by S.A. Poulet, Roscoff     

Environmental exposure to PCBs and cancer incidence in eastern Slovakia

In a population-based cross-sectional study, we compared serum levels of 15 polychlorinated biphenyl (PCB) congeners and three organochlorine pesticides in residents of two districts in eastern Slovakia, one with extensive environmental contamination from a former PCB production site (Michalovce) and the other matched on geography but with low (background) levels (Svidnik). The age-adjusted geometric means for sum of 15 measured PCB congeners were statistically significantly higher in subjects from the Michalovce district for both sexes: 3327.6 versus 1331.4 ng/g of lipid in males, 2751.8 versus 992.2 ng/g of lipid in females. Levels of DDE and DDT were also significantly higher, although the absolute differences were less pronounced. There was no substantial difference in HCB levels between the districts. We also conducted an ecologic study to compare cancer incidence occurring in these same two districts from 1985 through 1994. We calculated standardized incidence ratios (SIRs) and 95% confidence intervals for each district using indirect standardization and rates from eastern Slovakia. Among males from Michalovce (exposed), but not Svidnik (unexposed), there was an excess of cancer of the tongue (SIR=1.46; 1.06-1.96), stomach (SIR=1.15; 1.00-1.32), lung (SIR=1.14; 1.04-1.24), testis (SIR=1.40; 0.97-1.97), and kidney (SIR=1.23; 0.98-1.52), and lower than expected incidence of prostate cancer (SIR=0.83; 0.69-0.97); in contrast, there was an excess of peritoneal (SIR=3.05; 1.11-6.63) and laryngeal cancer (SIR=1.43; 0.99-1.98) in Svidnik not observed Michalovce. Among females from Michalovce, but not Svidnik, there was an excess of cancer of the lip (SIR=2.54; 1.53-3.96), stomach (SIR=1.22; 1.02-1.44), and lung (SIR=1.17; 0.94-1.45); in contrast, there was an excess of kidney (SIR=1.61; 1.03-2.40) and thyroid (SIR=1.97; 1.12-3.20) cancer in Svidnik not observed in Michalovce. Taken together, these results raise the possibility that high environmental exposure to organochlorines in the Michalovce district may be associated with higher rates of certain cancers, particularly stomach and lung cancer.     

Inventory of benthic macroinvertebrates and zooplankton in several European Bonamia ostreae-endemic areas and their possible role in the life cycle of this parasite

Bonamia ostreae is a protozoan parasite of the native oyster, Ostrea edulis. The parasite can be transmitted directly from infected to uninfected oysters. Though direct transmission of the parasite can occur between oysters it is unclear if this represents the complete life cycle of the parasite, and the involvement of a carrier/reservoir cannot be ruled out. A survey of benthic macroinvertebrate and zooplankton survey was carried out in the North Channel, Cork Harbour, Ireland, an area where B. ostreae is endemic and the parasite has been present since the 1980s. This was compared to several European surveys of benthic macroinvertebrate and zooplankton species found in other B. ostreae endemic areas. The objective was to identify any species that were common to these sites and could act as possible carrier/reservoir hosts for the pathogen. Species that were found to be common in two or more sites were included in two comparison tables. These species will be targeted in future studies investigating the possible role of macroinvertebrates and zooplankton in the complete life cycle of B. ostreae.