Some Heavy-Metal Pollutants in the Air of Naples

ABSTRACT

In this paper, assumptions regarding future land use as a key uncertainty is considered and its impact on risk analysis for contaminated sites is assessed. Risks are assessed for two land use scenarios (current-use industrial and future-use residential) using probabilistic models that incorporate uncertainty and variability in the exposure parameters. Residual risks are calculated for both industrial and residential cleanup standards. A Superfund site in northern California is considered.

In general, for the unremediated case, the future-use residential scenarios produce larger risks (1 to 3 orders of magnitude) than current- (continued) use industrial scenarios. For the Superfund site studied, the residual risks calculated for the remedy selected was not sufficiently protective of future-use residents in that it did not meet .S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) risk goals, but was protective of current-use workers, even though the cleanup criteria were based on residential use. Alternative risk management practices, such as deed restrictions, can be used in such cases.     

Environmental Auditing—A Timely and Effective Tool

The requirements of environmental regulations imposed on industry are complex and expensive. As these regulations have developed, corporate compliance programs have had to become more sophisticated. For many, this means that an environmental auditing program is now timely (or overdue) for organizing their approach to meeting the constraints of these regulations. Contributing to this timeliness is a renewed emphasis by regulators on enforcement activities. This paper discusses what environmental auditing is and what it consists of, gives examples from a few approaches which are currently being used, and reviews some of its benefits and liabilities.     

Predicting and Managing the Health Risks of Sour-Gas Wells

The development of sour-gas resources in Canada and the United States has prompted concerns about the public health risks of accidental releases of gas contaminated with hydrogen sulfide (H₂S) from wells. This paper focuses on methods for improving the prediction and management of those risks. Data associated with the health effects of hydrogen sulfide are examined, and it is suggested that sublethal effects should be addressed in risk assessments of sour-gas wells along with the life-threatening effects normally considered. The demarcation of hazard zones around wells can be improved by using a statistical approach for estimating an upper-bound H₂S release rate; this rate can then be used in an atmospheric dispersion model to estimate maximum distances to downwind concentrations for lethal (300 ppmv) and sublethal (50 ppmv) effects resulting from an accidental release. A vertical release is found to have little impact, especially under stable atmospheric conditions; horizontal releases, on the other hand, result in the greatest downwind distances for health impacts. Management of health risks depends on a mix of safety technologies and contingency actions, such as well-ignition options and provision for post-release monitoring and assessment of ambient H₂S concentrations.     

Use of Energy Scenarios in Addressing the CO2 Question

A reference scenario for CO₂ emissions was developed using a model of world energy supply and demand. In the reference scenario, world GNP and world energy demand increase at average rates of 2.1 percent per year and 1.5 percent per year, respectively during the period 1975-2100. The corresponding annual CO₂ emissions rise to a maximum of 16 gigatons of carbon around 2050 and then decline as a result of a transition to nonfossil fuel energy systems. A modified scenario for high CO₂ emissions was obtained by assuming an abundant supply of low cost coal, thus eliminating the transition. A low case was developed in which the low cost of alternative energy (i.e., solar, nuclear) induces an earlier shift away from fossil fuels.

Annual emissions of the three scenarios were used as input to a global carbon cycle model and the CO₂ buildup in the atmosphere during the period 1980-2100 was determined by the model. All three scenarios showed continuous rises in atmospheric CO₂ concentration. The reference scenario reached 775 ppm by 2100. The high CO₂ case resulted in concentrations of over 1040 ppm, and for the low case the 2100 concentration was just under 700 ppm. If the climate theory is correct, even 700 ppm is sufficient to give significant climate warming, but by experiencing the change gradually over a century, adaptation may not be painful. An early transition to nonfossil fuel supplies makes the problem less severe but does not eliminate it.     

A Pilot Indoor-Outdoor Study of Organic Particulate Matter and Particulate Mutagenicity

Abstract

Many large metropolitan areas experience elevated concentrations of ground-level ozone pollution during the summertime “smog season”. Local environmental or health agencies often need to make daily air pollution forecasts for public advisories and for input into decisions regarding abatement measures and air quality management. Such forecasts are usually based on statistical relationships between weather conditions and ambient air pollution concentrations. Multivariate linear regression models have been widely used for this purpose, and well-specified regressions can provide reasonable results. However, pollution-weather relationships are typically complex and nonlinear—especially for ozone—properties that might be better captured by neural networks. This study investigates the potential for using neural networks to forecast ozone pollution, as compared to traditional regression models. Multiple regression models and neural networks are examined for a range of cities under different climate and ozone regimes, enabling a comparative study of the two approaches. Model comparison statistics indicate that neural network techniques are somewhat (but not dramatically) better than regression models for daily ozone prediction, and that all types of models are sensitive to different weather-ozone regimes and the role of persistence in aiding predictions.     

KAPPA-G,A Non-Gaussian Plume Dispersion Model: Description and Evaluation Against Tracer Measurements

This paper presents a mixed methodology for the simulation of atmospheric disperson phenomena in which vertical diffusion is computed using an analytical solution of the K-theory equation, while horizontal diffusion is simulated by the Gaussian formula. This new formulation, while maintaining a simple analytical form for the concentration field, incorporates the effects of power-law vertical profiles of both wind speed and eddy diffusivity. The performance of this approach, which has been implemented into a full computer package (KAPPA-G), is evaluated by comparison with data from SF₆ tracer experiments.     

Ten-Year Ozone Trends in California and Texas

Ozone trends have been developed for 50 California sites located in six basins and for 15 Texas sites in two regions. All data were obtained directly from state or local monitoring agencies and have been standardized to the current ultraviolet calibration basis. Rigorous standards of data representativeness and statistical validity have been adhered to throughout. The effect of monitoring variance upon apparent trends is reviewed as well as implications of this work for the ozone control strategy. Trends for 1973-82 for three key robust ozone statistics were developed in detail and analyzed. These are: annual average, annual hours >120 ppb and average daily maximum hour (May through October). Summaries for three other statistics including annual maximum hour are also included as well as composite trends for California basins and Texas regions. The statistical significance of all trends is discussed.