A Comparison of Mass,Lead, Sulfate,and Nitrate Concentrations in a Field Study Using Dichotomous,Size-Selective,and Standard Hi-Vol Samplers

Air monitoring In the San Francisco Bay Area was carried out to measure outdoor community air concentrations of poly cyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAH) and mutagenlc activity (mutagenlclty) In participate organic matter (POM). Monitoring began In 1979 and Is currently conducted at six stations. PAH and mutagenlclty tests were performed on organic extracts prepared from high volume (hl-vol) filters composited every four months, by meteorological season. PAH were determined by high pressure liquid chromatography (HPLC) with fluorescence and ultraviolet detection. Mutagenlclty was measured In the Ames Salmonella bloas-say using strain TA98 with and without metabolic activation. The nine-year mean concentration of benzo(a)pyrene (BaP) was 0.4 ng/m³. The mutagenlcfty of this amount of BaP accounted for only about 0.2% of the observed mutagenicity In POM and other measured PAH accounted for even less. Concentrations of PAH and mutagenlclty were three to nine times higher during the winter than during other seasons. Year-to-year wintertime trends In several PAH were also seen. Early In the 1980s, winter concentrations of BaP and benzo (g,h,i)perylene Increased. However since the mld-1980’s, their concentrations have fallen. The decrease In PAH concentrations may be the result of an Increasing proportion of vehicles with relatively low organic emissions. In contrast to PAH, mutagenlcfty did not show significant year-to-year time trends.     

Atmospheric Factors Influencing Daily Sulfate Concentrations in Chicago Air

Abstract

Confidence interval construction for central tendency is a problem of practical consequence for those who must analyze air contaminant data. Determination of compliance with relevant ambient air quality criteria and assessment of associated health risks depend upon quantifying the uncertainty of estimated mean pollutant concentrations. The bootstrap is a resampling technique that has been steadily gaining popularity and acceptance during the past several years. A potentially powerful application of the bootstrap is the construction of confidence intervals for any parameter of any underlying distribution. Properties of bootstrap confidence intervals were determined for samples generated from lognormal, gamma, and Weibull distributions. Bootstrap t intervals, while having smaller coverage errors than Student's t or other bootstrap methods, under-cover for small samples from skewed distributions. Therefore, we caution against using the bootstrap to construct confidence intervals for the mean without first considering the effects of sample size and skew. When sample sizes are small, one might consider using the median as an estimate of central tendency. Confidence intervals for the median are easy to construct and do not under-cover. Data collected by the Northeast States for Coordinated Air Use Management (NESCAUM) are used to illustrate application of the methods discussed.     

Factors Influencing the Emissions of Nitrated-Polynuclear Aromatic Hydrocarbons(Nitro-PAH) from Diesel Engines

The potential problem of 1-nitropyrene (1-NP) formation during filter sampling of diesel emissions from dilution tubes is assessed. Rates of formation are calculated using data generated from several independent filter exposure studies. A portion of the 1-NP (12% average) found in participates collected from light-duty (LDD) and heavy-duty diesels (HOD) was found to be due to formation on the filter under average sampling conditions of 10-15/1 dilution at 44°C with 3 ppm NO₂ for 23 min. On the average, the concentration of 1-NP in participates emitted from HDD is 16 times less than that found in LDD run under similiar transient conditions. The average emission rate of 1-NP generated from the LDD and HDD was 4.7 μg/km and 1.5 μg/km, respectively for the vehicles operating under Federal Test Procedure (FTP)-transient conditions. Under operating conditions which increase exhaust temperature (increased speed and load), the concentration of nitro-PAH is significantly reduced with a concurrent increase in the concentration of partially oxidized nitro-PAH and dinitro-PAH. The concentration of 1-NP in the particulates measured from HDD in these dilution tube studies (0.33-0.95 ppm, depending upon engine load) is comparable to that measured in highway tunnel experiments (0.54 ppm average).     

Ten-Year Ozone Trends in California and Texas

Ozone trends have been developed for 50 California sites located in six basins and for 15 Texas sites in two regions. All data were obtained directly from state or local monitoring agencies and have been standardized to the current ultraviolet calibration basis. Rigorous standards of data representativeness and statistical validity have been adhered to throughout. The effect of monitoring variance upon apparent trends is reviewed as well as implications of this work for the ozone control strategy. Trends for 1973-82 for three key robust ozone statistics were developed in detail and analyzed. These are: annual average, annual hours >120 ppb and average daily maximum hour (May through October). Summaries for three other statistics including annual maximum hour are also included as well as composite trends for California basins and Texas regions. The statistical significance of all trends is discussed.     

An Assessment of the Economic Effects of Ozone on U.S. Agriculture

Past attempts to measure the economic consequences of ozone on agriculture have been based on limited plant science information. This paper reports on an economic assessment of ozone on U.S. agriculture using recent crop response data from the National Crop Loss Assessment Network (NCLAN). The results are derived from a U.S. agricultural sector model that includes major crop and livestock production as well as domestic consumption, livestock feeding and export uses. The economic effects of four hypothetical ambient ozone levels are investigated. The analysis Indicates that the benefits to society of moderate (25%) ozone reductions are approximately $1.7 billion. A 25% Increase in ozone pollution results in costs (negative benefits) of $2.1 billion. These estimates do not reflect compliance costs of achieving the ozone changes and hence are not net benefits.     

A Pilot Indoor-Outdoor Study of Organic Particulate Matter and Particulate Mutagenicity

Abstract

Many large metropolitan areas experience elevated concentrations of ground-level ozone pollution during the summertime “smog season”. Local environmental or health agencies often need to make daily air pollution forecasts for public advisories and for input into decisions regarding abatement measures and air quality management. Such forecasts are usually based on statistical relationships between weather conditions and ambient air pollution concentrations. Multivariate linear regression models have been widely used for this purpose, and well-specified regressions can provide reasonable results. However, pollution-weather relationships are typically complex and nonlinear—especially for ozone—properties that might be better captured by neural networks. This study investigates the potential for using neural networks to forecast ozone pollution, as compared to traditional regression models. Multiple regression models and neural networks are examined for a range of cities under different climate and ozone regimes, enabling a comparative study of the two approaches. Model comparison statistics indicate that neural network techniques are somewhat (but not dramatically) better than regression models for daily ozone prediction, and that all types of models are sensitive to different weather-ozone regimes and the role of persistence in aiding predictions.     

Use of Energy Scenarios in Addressing the CO2 Question

A reference scenario for CO₂ emissions was developed using a model of world energy supply and demand. In the reference scenario, world GNP and world energy demand increase at average rates of 2.1 percent per year and 1.5 percent per year, respectively during the period 1975-2100. The corresponding annual CO₂ emissions rise to a maximum of 16 gigatons of carbon around 2050 and then decline as a result of a transition to nonfossil fuel energy systems. A modified scenario for high CO₂ emissions was obtained by assuming an abundant supply of low cost coal, thus eliminating the transition. A low case was developed in which the low cost of alternative energy (i.e., solar, nuclear) induces an earlier shift away from fossil fuels.

Annual emissions of the three scenarios were used as input to a global carbon cycle model and the CO₂ buildup in the atmosphere during the period 1980-2100 was determined by the model. All three scenarios showed continuous rises in atmospheric CO₂ concentration. The reference scenario reached 775 ppm by 2100. The high CO₂ case resulted in concentrations of over 1040 ppm, and for the low case the 2100 concentration was just under 700 ppm. If the climate theory is correct, even 700 ppm is sufficient to give significant climate warming, but by experiencing the change gradually over a century, adaptation may not be painful. An early transition to nonfossil fuel supplies makes the problem less severe but does not eliminate it.