An Assessment of the Economic Effects of Ozone on U.S. Agriculture

Past attempts to measure the economic consequences of ozone on agriculture have been based on limited plant science information. This paper reports on an economic assessment of ozone on U.S. agriculture using recent crop response data from the National Crop Loss Assessment Network (NCLAN). The results are derived from a U.S. agricultural sector model that includes major crop and livestock production as well as domestic consumption, livestock feeding and export uses. The economic effects of four hypothetical ambient ozone levels are investigated. The analysis Indicates that the benefits to society of moderate (25%) ozone reductions are approximately $1.7 billion. A 25% Increase in ozone pollution results in costs (negative benefits) of $2.1 billion. These estimates do not reflect compliance costs of achieving the ozone changes and hence are not net benefits.     

A Pilot Indoor-Outdoor Study of Organic Particulate Matter and Particulate Mutagenicity

Abstract

Many large metropolitan areas experience elevated concentrations of ground-level ozone pollution during the summertime “smog season”. Local environmental or health agencies often need to make daily air pollution forecasts for public advisories and for input into decisions regarding abatement measures and air quality management. Such forecasts are usually based on statistical relationships between weather conditions and ambient air pollution concentrations. Multivariate linear regression models have been widely used for this purpose, and well-specified regressions can provide reasonable results. However, pollution-weather relationships are typically complex and nonlinear—especially for ozone—properties that might be better captured by neural networks. This study investigates the potential for using neural networks to forecast ozone pollution, as compared to traditional regression models. Multiple regression models and neural networks are examined for a range of cities under different climate and ozone regimes, enabling a comparative study of the two approaches. Model comparison statistics indicate that neural network techniques are somewhat (but not dramatically) better than regression models for daily ozone prediction, and that all types of models are sensitive to different weather-ozone regimes and the role of persistence in aiding predictions.     

Use of Energy Scenarios in Addressing the CO2 Question

A reference scenario for CO₂ emissions was developed using a model of world energy supply and demand. In the reference scenario, world GNP and world energy demand increase at average rates of 2.1 percent per year and 1.5 percent per year, respectively during the period 1975-2100. The corresponding annual CO₂ emissions rise to a maximum of 16 gigatons of carbon around 2050 and then decline as a result of a transition to nonfossil fuel energy systems. A modified scenario for high CO₂ emissions was obtained by assuming an abundant supply of low cost coal, thus eliminating the transition. A low case was developed in which the low cost of alternative energy (i.e., solar, nuclear) induces an earlier shift away from fossil fuels.

Annual emissions of the three scenarios were used as input to a global carbon cycle model and the CO₂ buildup in the atmosphere during the period 1980-2100 was determined by the model. All three scenarios showed continuous rises in atmospheric CO₂ concentration. The reference scenario reached 775 ppm by 2100. The high CO₂ case resulted in concentrations of over 1040 ppm, and for the low case the 2100 concentration was just under 700 ppm. If the climate theory is correct, even 700 ppm is sufficient to give significant climate warming, but by experiencing the change gradually over a century, adaptation may not be painful. An early transition to nonfossil fuel supplies makes the problem less severe but does not eliminate it.     

KAPPA-G,A Non-Gaussian Plume Dispersion Model: Description and Evaluation Against Tracer Measurements

This paper presents a mixed methodology for the simulation of atmospheric disperson phenomena in which vertical diffusion is computed using an analytical solution of the K-theory equation, while horizontal diffusion is simulated by the Gaussian formula. This new formulation, while maintaining a simple analytical form for the concentration field, incorporates the effects of power-law vertical profiles of both wind speed and eddy diffusivity. The performance of this approach, which has been implemented into a full computer package (KAPPA-G), is evaluated by comparison with data from SF₆ tracer experiments.     

The Mutagenic Activity of Particulate Organic Matter Collected with a Dilution Sampler at Coal-Fired Power Plants

The Deep Creek Lake Study of 1983 provided an opportunity to obtain emission samples from coal-fired power plants with a dilution sampler for mutagenicity testing. Stack and ambient samples of particulate matter were collected with a dilution sampler at three coal-fired power plants in West Virginia. Samples were sequentially extracted with cyclohexane (CX), dichloromethane (DCM) and acetone (ACE) and tested for mutagenicity in the Ames Salmonella/microsome assay using TA98 (-S9). For the stack samples, the CX, DCM and ACE fractions constituted 1.0, 0.7 and 98.1 percent of the total extractable organic material (EOM), respectively, compared to 28.5, 7.4 and 64.1 percent for the ambient samples. In contrast, the mutagenic activity of the organic fractions was concentrated in the CX and DCM fractions.

The cyclohexane- and dichloromethane-soluble fractions of the stack samples from all locations exhibited mutagenicity when tested in the plate incorporation assay. No significant response was observed with the acetone fraction. When tested with Kado's modification of the preincubation assay, the acetone-soluble fraction did exhibit mutagenic activity comparable to that of the other fractions when expressed in units of revertants per milligram of particular matter. Chemical analyses of one of the acetone-soluble fractions indicated that half of the mass was sulfuric acid while the remainder consisted of C, H and O. More than 30 peaks were detected in the high pressure liquid chromatogram of this fraction.

Although little mutagenic activity was detected in the polar ACE fraction of the diluted stack emissions samples with this single bioassay, in view of the large mass of this fraction, further investigation of the chemical composition and genotoxic activity of this fraction would be prudent.     

Eliminating Reheat from Existing FGD Systems

The Clean Air Act Amendments of the early 1970_s required coal burning utilities to reduce their emissions of sulfur dioxide. Lime or limestone based wet systems were employed for flue gas desulfurization (FGD). These systems reduced flue gas temperatures to below acid dew point conditions. Concerned about the prospect of ductwork exposed to a saturated, acid-rich environment, most utilities turned to stack gas reheat (SGR) to increase flue gas temperatures. By 1980, 82 percent of all FGD facilities employed SGR. Today there are about 130 FGD systems of which 101 employ some form of stack gas reheat.     

Experimental Characterization of Atmospheric Diffusion in Complex Terrain with Land-Sea Interactions

The body of information presented in this paper is directed to scientists working in atmospheric dispersion research and model development. Two years of field measurements in the coastal area of Bilbao in northern Spain show that the diffusion behavior in this complex terrain can be classified into several well defined patterns, which correspond to certain meteorological conditions. The approach taken has been the systematic use of SO₂ remote sensors (COSPEC) and ground level monitors in moving platforms which are used to follow and document the flow of the air mass. Results to date show that complex reentry cycles can occur and that synoptically different flows may be indistinguishable by wind sensors at ground level (affected by channeling), and yet result in totally different observed pollution levels by a fixed monitoring network (affected by topographical effects). These results are being used to parameterize the cause-effect relationships and guide the modeling efforts in this area of complex terrain.     

Indoor Nitrogen Dioxide Exposure and Children’s Pulmonary Function

Elevated concentrations of nitrogen dioxide (NO₂) are produced in the home by the use of unvented gas appliances. In studies on potential health effects of Indoor exposure to NO₂, exposure has mostly been estimated from the presence or absence of sources like gas cookers in the home. This leads to misclassification of exposure, as NO₂ concentrations in the home depend also on source use, ventilation habits, time budgets, etc. The availability of cheap, passive monitoring devices has made it possible to measure Indoor concentrations of NO₂ directly in health effects studies, albeit with averaging times of one to several days. So far, it has not been evaluated whether this increases the sensitivity of a study to detect health effects of NO₂. In this paper, a comparison is made between NO₂ sources and weekly average indoor NO₂ measurements, as predictors of pulmonary function in a study among children aged 6–12 years.

The relationship between exposure and lung functions was found to be generally non-significant in this study. The results further suggested that in this study, measuring Indoor NO₂ concentrations with passive monitors offered no advantage over the simple use of source presence as exposure variable.