Impacts of climate change on the distribution of species and communities in the Chilean Mediterranean ecosystem

The Mediterranean region of Chile is considered a biodiversity hot spot. An increase in temperature and decrease in precipitation, as projected for the end of this century by global circulation models, would likely change the distribution of the sclerophyllous thorny shrubland and woodland. In order to assess those potential impacts, the MAXENT algorithm was used to project potential changes in the distribution of the Mediterranean ecosystem. Ecological niche models were fitted and used to project the potential distribution of these forest ecosystems by the end of the century. Projections were made using data from the PRECIS model for the A2 and B2 climate change scenarios and two strategies of occupancy: free migration and non-migration. Distribution models of sclerophyllous, woodland and shrubland performed accurately representing current species’ distribution. When we assume non-migration responses under climate change scenarios, results reveal a decrease in the distribution area for all the species. The areas where the highest reduction in a suitable environment was found are located along the coastline, where higher temperature increases have been projected. For native ecosystems from the Andean Range region, such as communities dominated by thorny species, a stable habitat was found, associated with a higher adaptation capability to future climatic projections. Hence, in the future, buffer zones originated by “topo-climatic” conditions might play a key role in protecting Central Chile biodiversity.     

Multicriteria analysis applied to the sustainable agriculture problem

SUMMARY

The aim of this paper is to present an operational approach to compare the relative sustainability of existing farming systems. Sustainability rests on the assumption that an equilibrium must exist among three domains: social, economic and ecological. If we are to look for a solution to the problem, we must face a multi-dimensional approach. We propose that multicriteria analysis, a multi-dimensional method, is an appropriate methodology to study the issue. As sustainability cannot be measured directly, the way out is to use indicators. We have performed a thorough analysis of four farming systems existing in Guaíra, SP, Brazil to validate the methodology. Thirty indicators of sustainability (ten ecological, ten social, and ten economic) were defined and used to perform the analysis. The results of the multicriteria analysis proved useful because of its capability of reducing the dimensionality of the problem. From the three dimensions of sustainability, a final score was derived that can easily compare the relative sustainability of each farming system.     

Comparing modern and presettlement forest dynamics of a subboreal wilderness: does spruce budworm enhance fire risk?

Insect disturbance is often thought to increase fire risk through enhanced fuel loadings, particularly in coniferous forest ecosystems. Yet insect disturbances also affect successional pathways and landscape structure that interact with fire disturbances (and vice-versa) over longer time scales. We applied a landscape succession and disturbance model (LANDIS-II) to evaluate the relative strength of interactions between spruce budworm (Choristoneura fumiferana) outbreaks and fire disturbances in the Boundary Waters Canoe Area (BWCA) in northern Minnesota (USA). Disturbance interactions were evaluated for two different scenarios: presettlement forests and fire regimes vs. contemporary forests and fire regimes. Forest composition under the contemporary scenario trended toward mixtures of deciduous species (primarily Betula papyrifera and Populus spp.) and shade-tolerant conifers (Picea mariana, Abies balsamea, Thuja occidentalis), with disturbances dominated by a combination of budworm defoliation and high-severity fires. The presettlement scenario retained comparatively more "big pines" (i.e., Pinus strobus, P. resinosa) and tamarack (L. laricina), and experienced less budworm disturbance and a comparatively less-severe fire regime. Spruce budworm disturbance decreased area burned and fire severity under both scenarios when averaged across the entire 300-year simulations. Contrary to past research, area burned and fire severity during outbreak decades were each similar to that observed in non-outbreak decades. Our analyses suggest budworm disturbances within forests of the BWCA have a comparatively weak effect on long-term forest composition due to a combination of characteristics. These include strict host specificity, fine-scaled patchiness created by defoliation damage, and advance regeneration of its primary host, balsam fir (A. balsamea) that allows its host to persist despite repeated disturbances. Understanding the nature of the three-way interaction between budworm, fire, and composition has important ramifications for both fire mitigation strategies and ecosystem restoration initiatives. We conclude that budworm disturbance can partially mitigate long-term future fire risk by periodically reducing live ladder fuel within the mixed forest types of the BWCA but will do little to reverse the compositional trends caused in part by reduced fire rotations.     

Monitoring of firefighters exposure to smoke during fire experiments in Portugal

Forest fires represent a serious threat to public security in Europe due to the large burned area. Moreover, smoke pollution due to forest fire events is an important public health issue for the communities directly affected, and particularly for the personnel involved in firefighting operations. Aiming to contribute to the scientific knowledge concerning firefighters exposure to forest fires smoke, data of individual exposure to carbon monoxide, nitrogen dioxide, volatile organic compounds, and particulate matter were obtained during experimental field fires for a group of 10 firefighters equipped with portable “in continuum” measuring devices. Measured values are very high exceeding the Occupational Exposure Standard limits, in particular for peak limit thresholds. These are the first measurements and analysis of firefighter's individual exposure to toxic gases and particles in fire smoke experiments in Europe. However, they already indicate that urgent measures to avoid these levels of exposure are needed.     

The application of a simplified method to map the aerobic acetate mineralization rates at the groundwater table of the Netherlands

A simplified method is used to assess the microbial activity of subsoils and soils across a broad geographic scale. Acetate was selected because it is a major intermediate in catabolic biochemical pathways. In order to get minimal disturbance, only a small amount of tritium labelled acetate and water is added to the subsoil material. After an incubation time, the subsoil material is separated from the water by centrifugation and the formed tritium labelled water is separated from the remaining acetate by evaporation. The data of 128 locations in the Netherlands were plotted in a soil map and were also compared with the depth, dry weight, electric conductivity, pH and nitrate concentration. The peat areas consisted of limed meadows with a high groundwater level whereas the sand areas often showed deeper groundwater levels and a lower pH. The subsoils at the groundwater table of the peat areas, which are in contact with soil air, showed a higher mineralization rate compared with the surface soils in our study. In contrast, the mineralization rate of the subsoil at the groundwater table of sandy soils showed on average a factor 30 lower rate. Nevertheless, the self purification capacity of the subsoil can be vital under weather conditions where the surface soil becomes less active.     

Correlation between physicochemical and ecotoxicological approaches to estimate landfill leachates toxicity

Leachates from municipal solid waste (MSW) landfills may contain a huge diversity of contaminants; these wastewaters should be considered as potentially hazardous complex mixtures, representing a potential environmental risk for surface and groundwater. Current MSW landfill wastes regulatory approaches deem exclusively on the physicochemical characterization and does not contemplate the ecotoxicological assessment of landfill leachates. However, the presence of highly toxic substances in consumer products requires reconsideration on the need of more specific ecotoxicological assessments. The main aim of this study was to evaluate the toxicity of different MSW landfill leachates using a battery of toxicity tests including acute toxicity tests with Daphnia magna and the anuran Xenopus laevis and the in vitro toxicity test with the fish cell line RTG-2. The additional objective was to study the possible correlation between physicochemical properties and the toxicity results obtained for untreated landfill leachates. The results showed that the proposed test battery was effective for the ecotoxicological characterization of MSW landfill leachates. A moderate to strong correlation between the measured physicochemical parameters and the calculated toxicity units was detected for all toxicity assays. Correlation factors of 0.85, 0.86 and 0.55 for Daphnia, Xenopus and RTG-2 tests, respectively, were found. The discriminant analysis showed that certain physicochemical parameters could be used for an initial categorization of the potential aquatic acute toxicity of leachates; this finding may facilitate leachates management as the physicochemical characterization is currently the most common or even only monitoring method employed in a large majority of landfills. Ammonia, alkalinity and chemical oxygen demand (COD), together with chloride, allowed a proper categorization of leachates toxicity for up to 75% of tested samples, with a small percentage of false negatives.     

Bias Correction Techniques to Improve Air Quality Ensemble Predictions: Focus on O3 and PM Over Portugal

Five air quality models were applied over Portugal for July 2006 and used as ensemble members. Each model was used, with its original set up in terms of meteorology, parameterizations, boundary conditions and chemical mechanisms, but with the same emission data. The validation of the individual models and the ensemble of ozone (O₃) and particulate matter (PM) is performed using monitoring data from 22 background sites. The ensemble approach, based on the mean and median of the five models, did not improve significantly the skill scores due to large deviations in each ensemble member. Different bias correction techniques, including a subtraction of the mean bias and a multiplicative ratio adjustment, were implemented and analysed. The obtained datasets were compared against the individual modelled outputs using the bias, the root mean square error (RMSE) and the correlation coefficient. The applied bias correction techniques also improved the skill of the individual models and work equally well over the entire range of observed O₃ and PM values. The obtained results revealed that the best bias correction technique was the ratio adjustment with a 4-day training period, demonstrating significant improvements for both analysed pollutants. The increase in the ensemble skill found comprehends a bias reduction of 88 % for O₃, and 92 % for PM10, and also a decrease in 23 % for O₃ and 43 % for PM10 in what concerns the RMSE. In addition, a spatial bias correction approach was also examined with successful skills comparing to the uncorrected ensemble for both pollutants.