NEW METHODS OF MODELING WATER AVAILABILITY FOR AGRICULTURE UNDER CLIMATE CHANGE: THE U.S. CORNBELT1

ABSTRACT: This paper reports on new methods of linking climate change scenarios with hydrologic, agricultural an water planning models to study future water availability for agriculture, an essential element of sustainability. The study is based on the integration of models of water supply and demand, and of crop growth and irrigation management. Consistent modeling assumptions, available databases, and scenario simulations are used to capture a range of possible future conditions. The linked models include WATBAL for water supply; CERES, SOYGRO, and CROPWAT for crop and irrigation modeling; and WEAP for water demand forecasting, planning and evaluation. These models are applied to the U.S. Cornbelt using forecasts of climate change, agricultural production, population and GDP growth. Results suggest that, at least in the near term, the relative abundance of water for agriculture can be maintained under climate change conditions. However, increased water demands from urban growth, increases in reservoir evaporation and increases in crop consumptive use must be accommodated by timely improvements in crop, irrigation and drainage technology, water management, and institutions. These improvements are likely to require substantial resources and expertise. In the highly irrigated basins of the region, irrigation demand greatly exceeds industrial and municipal demands. When improvements in irrigation efficiency are tested, these basins respond by reducing demand and lessening environmental stress with an improvement in system reliability, effects particularly evident under a high technology scenario. Rain-fed lands in the Cornbelt are not forced to invest in irrigation, but there is some concern about increased water-logging during the spring and consequent required increased investment in agricultural drainage. One major water region in the Cornbelt also provides a useful caveat: change will not necessarily be continuous and monotonic. Under one GCM scenario for the 2010s, the region shows a significant decrease in system reliability, while the scenario for the 2020s shows an increase.     

Variations in expression of carbon isotope fractionation of chlorinated ethenes during biologically enhanced PCE dissolution close to a source zone

The stable carbon isotope values of tetrachloroethene (PCE) and its degradation products were monitored during studies of biologically enhanced dissolution of PCE dense nonaqueous phase liquid (DNAPL) to determine the effect of PCE dissolution on observed isotope values. The degradation of PCE was monitored in a 2-dimensional model aquifer and in a pilot test cell (PTC) at Dover Air Force Base, both with emplaced PCE DNAPL sources. Within the plume down gradient from the source, the isotopic fractionation of dissolved PCE and its degradation products were consistent with those observed in biodegradation laboratory studies. However, close to the source zone significant shifts in the isotope values of dissolved PCE were not observed in either the model aquifer or PTC due to the constant input of newly dissolved, non fractionated PCE, and the small isotopic fractionation associated with PCE reductive dechlorination by the mixed microbial culture used. Therefore the identification of reductive dechlorination in the presence of PCE DNAPL was based upon the appearance of daughter products and the isotope values of those daughter products. An isotope model was developed to simulate isotope values of PCE during the dissolution and degradation of PCE adjacent to a DNAPL source zone. With the exception of very high degradation rate constants (>1/day) stable carbon isotope values of PCE estimated by the model remained within error of the isotope value of the PCE DNAPL, consistent with measured isotope values in the model aquifer and in the PTC.     

Quantification of biotransformation of chlorinated hydrocarbons in a biostimulation study: added value via stable carbon isotope analysis

Stable carbon isotope analysis of chlorinated aliphatic compounds was performed at an in situ biostimulation pilot test area (PTA) at a site where 1,2-dichloroethane (1,2-DCA) and trichloroethene (TCE) were present in groundwater. Chlorinated products of TCE reductive dechlorination (cis-dichloroethene (cDCE) and vinyl chloride (VC)) were present at concentrations of 17.5 to 126.4 micromol/L. Ethene, a potential degradation product of both 1,2-DCA dihaloelimination and TCE reductive dechlorination was also present in the PTA. Emulsified soybean oil and lactate were added as electron donors to stimulate anaerobic dechlorination in the PTA. Stable carbon isotope analysis provided evidence that dechlorination was occurring in the PTA during biostimulation, and a means of monitoring changes in dechlorination efficiency over the 183 day monitoring period. Stable carbon isotope analysis was also used to determine if ethene production in the PTA was due to dechlorination of TCE, 1,2-DCA, or both. Fractionation factors (alpha) were determined in the laboratory during anaerobic biotransformation of 1,2-DCA via a dihaloelimination reaction in four separate enrichment cultures. These alpha values (as well as the previously published ranges of alpha for the dechlorination of TCE, cDCE and 1,2-DCA) were used, along with isotopic values measured during the pilot test, to derive quantitative estimates of biotransformation during the pilot test. Dechlorination was found to account for 10.7 to 35.9%, 21.9 to 74.9%, and 54.4 to 67.8% of 1,2-DCA, TCE and cDCE concentration loss respectively in the PTA. Stable carbon isotope analysis indicates that dechlorination of 1,2-DCA, TCE and cDCE were all significant processes during the pilot test, while ethene production during the pilot test was dominated by 1,2-DCA dihaloelimination. This study demonstrates how stable carbon isotope analysis can provide more conservative estimates of the extent of biotransformation than do conventional protocols. In addition, in a complex mixed plume such as this, compound specific isotope analysis is shown to be one of the few methods available for clarifying dominant biotransformation pathways where breakdown products are non-exclusive (i.e. ethene).     

Victoria's emerging framework of regional governance for sustainability: the case of catchment management authorities and regional catchment strategies

The aim of this paper is to presents a progress report on how a subnational jurisdiction, the Australian state of Victoria, is attempting to implement regional governance for sustainability through its catchment planning framework. The paper examines the lessons learnt from a best practice approach to the implementation of network governance to see whether there are actions that can be taken to improve regional governance for sustainability in Victoria. The authors argue that Victoria is implementing a network governance approach to natural resource management (NRM) as a significant component of sustainability and that this has certain advantages. In particular the emergence of Regional Catchment Strategies developed by the State's ten statutory Catchment Management Authorities as 'regional sustainability blueprints' is bringing a significant level of maturity to the state's governance framework. Furthermore the state is currently working to complete its governance for sustainability through new statewide integrating frameworks—an Environmental Sustainability Framework as well as a statewide Catchment Management and Investment Framework. The paper concludes that taking a network governance approach could have transformative potential but there are significant challenges ahead: the complex task of aligning of national, state, catchment and local government strategies through an outcomes focus; the scarcity of mechanisms and tools to assist in translation of strategies into integrated investment priorities; gaps in knowledge and understanding of natural resource management problems; limitations in the capacity of regional and local bodies, including local government; and getting the policy tools right within the framework. However, as the best practice examples illustrate, taking a gradual approach to the development of the institutions—building on successive wins in capacity—is the best and only way to proceed.     

Victoria's emerging framework of regional governance for sustainability: the case of catchment management authorities and regional catchment strategies

The aim of this paper is to presents a progress report on how a subnational jurisdiction, the Australian state of Victoria, is attempting to implement regional governance for sustainability through its catchment planning framework. The paper examines the lessons learnt from a best practice approach to the implementation of network governance to see whether there are actions that can be taken to improve regional governance for sustainability in Victoria. The authors argue that Victoria is implementing a network governance approach to natural resource management (NRM) as a significant component of sustainability and that this has certain advantages. In particular the emergence of Regional Catchment Strategies developed by the State's ten statutory Catchment Management Authorities as 'regional sustainability blueprints' is bringing a significant level of maturity to the state's governance framework. Furthermore the state is currently working to complete its governance for sustainability through new statewide integrating frameworks—an Environmental Sustainability Framework as well as a statewide Catchment Management and Investment Framework. The paper concludes that taking a network governance approach could have transformative potential but there are significant challenges ahead: the complex task of aligning of national, state, catchment and local government strategies through an outcomes focus; the scarcity of mechanisms and tools to assist in translation of strategies into integrated investment priorities; gaps in knowledge and understanding of natural resource management problems; limitations in the capacity of regional and local bodies, including local government; and getting the policy tools right within the framework. However, as the best practice examples illustrate, taking a gradual approach to the development of the institutions—building on successive wins in capacity—is the best and only way to proceed.     

Prediction of an abnormal karyotype in fetuses with omphalocele

The aim of this study was to assess the value of ultrasonographic evaluation in predicting abnormal karyotypes in fetuses with omphalocele. Forty fetuses with antenatally diagnosed omphalocele and available karyotype results were reviewed. Ultrasound evaluation included herniation contents and size, and the detection of other anomalies. Nine of 40 consecutive fetuses had abnormal karyotypes: trisomy 18 (n = 5), trisomy 13 (n = 3), 47,XXX (n = 1). Only 1/25 with an extracorporeal liver versus 8/15 with an intracorporeal liver had abnormal chromosomes [P = 0·0006, RR = 0·14 (0·02 < RR <0·9)]. Small defects (<3 cm) were associated with abnormal karyotypes [P = 0·01, RR = 4·7 (1·4<RR <15·6)]. Finding concurrent malformations was highly associated with chromosomal anomalies [P = 0·00004, RR = 4·4 (2·3 < RR < 8·5)]. The presence of associated malformations, an intracorporeal liver, and a small herniation size are highly suggestive of an associated abnormal karyotype.     

The three-dimensional structure of airborne bird flocks

Summary The three-dimensional structure of flocks of dunlin, Calidris alpina, and starlings, Sturnus vulgaris, was studied while birds were in transit between feeding, loafing and roosting sites. A technique was developed that uses standard photogrammetric methods to determine the three-coordinate position of birds in flocks from stereoscopic pairs of simultaneously exposed photographs. A comparison of nearest neighbour distances indicates that dunlin have a tighter, more compact flock structure than do starlings (Fig. 2; Table 2). Analysis of interbird angles in both the vertical and horizontal planes indicates that each dunlin's nearest neighbour is most likely to be behind and below it. This spatial structure results in areas in which few nearest neighbours occur (e.g., immediately in front and below) (Fig. 3). Flight speeds during transit flights are also presented (Table 4). The spatial structure and behaviour of dunlin and starling flocks appear to be very similar to the structure and behaviour of schools of fish.     

Enhanced anaerobic bioremediation in a multicontaminant plume

The potential application of enhanced in situ bioremediation (EISB) for treatment of a plume containing high concentrations of 1,2‐dichloroethane (1,2‐DCA), as well as lower concentrations of other chlorinated ethanes, chlorinated methanes, and chlorinated ethenes was evaluated through the implementation of four field trials. The field trials confirmed that EISB is an effective technology for treating multiple contaminants, with estimated mass removal rates on the order of several kilograms per day and groundwater concentration reductions nearing 100 percent of the initial concentrations. The field trials also demonstrated that engineering controls could be effectively used to overcome potential inhibitions related to high concentrations of 1,2‐DCA. © 2008 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.