Global environmental change: the contribution of social science research to policy in the UK

Research into global environmental change in the United Kingdom, has sought to influence public policy. It has also served to refashion the social sciences themselves, forcing them to consider sustainability as a dimension of all social and economic behaviour. This paper describes the way in which the principle of enhanced sustainability might become a point of reference in social science research. It discusses, some of the lessons that have been learned from the Global Environmental Change Programme and then considers the relationship between this work and research on the environment undertaken within the natural sciences.This paper was presented as a keynote delivery at the Global Forum '94 Conference Towards a sustainable Future: Promoting Sustainable Development, Manchester, UK.     

瑞典水文变化-气候变化影响模拟

温室效应加剧导致的气候变化将会引起水文系统的变化.随着气候要素的变化,水文变化将会在全球呈现出区域差异性.因此,有必要开展局地和区域尺度上的水文变化影响研究,评价不同区域将会受到怎样的影响.本研究旨在对广泛的瑞典流域上气候变化的水文影响(响应)进行评估.我们采用不同的方法,将气候模型中产生的气候变化信号转换输入到水文模型中.利用瑞典区域气候模拟计划(SWECLIM)生成的区域气候情景,我们进行了几次水文模型模拟研究.得出的基本结论是根据流域的地理位置处于瑞典北部或南部,气候变化对河道水流的分区影响是显著不同的.此外,预测的水文变化不仅与用于确定区域气候模型边界条件的全球气候模型的选择有关,而且与人为气体排放情景的选取有关.     

Do laboratory salinity tolerances of freshwater animals correspond with their field salinity?

The degree to which laboratory derived measures of salinity tolerance reflect the field distributions of freshwater biota is uncertain. In this paper we compare laboratory-derived acute salinity tolerance (LC(50) values) of freshwater macroinvertebrates (range 5.5-76 mS/cm) and fish (range 2.7-82 mS/cm) from southeastern Australia with the salinity from which they have been collected in the field. Only 4% of the macroinvertebrates were collected at salinity levels substantially higher than their 72-h LC(50) obtained from directly transferring animals from low salinity water to the water they were tested (direct transfer LC(50)). This LC(50) value was correlated with the maximum salinity at which a species had been collected. For common macroinvertebrates, the maximum field salinity was approximated by the direct transfer 72-h LC(50). For adult freshwater fish, 21% of species were collected at salinities substantially greater than their acute direct transfer LC(50) and there was a weak relationship between these two variables. Although there was a weak correlation between the direct transfer LC(50) of early life stages of freshwater fish and the maximum field salinity, 58% of the field distribution were in higher than their LC(50) values. In contrast, LC(50) determined from experiments that acclimated adult fish to higher salinity (slow acclimation) provided a better indication of the field distribution: with only one fish species (7%) being in conflict with their maximum field salinity and a strong positive relationship between these variables. This study shows that laboratory measures of acute salinity tolerance can reflect the maximum salinity that macroinvertebrate and fish species inhabit and are consistent with some anecdotal observations from other studies.     

Analysis of PM10, PM2.5, and PM2 5-10 concentrations in Santiago, Chile, from 1989 to 2001

Daily particle samples were collected in Santiago, Chile, at four urban locations from January 1, 1989, through December 31, 2001. Both fine PM with da < 2.5 microm (PM2.5) and coarse PM with 2.5 < da < 10 microm (PM2.5-10) were collected using dichotomous samplers. The inhalable particle fraction, PM10, was determined as the sum of fine and coarse concentrations. Wind speed, temperature and relative humidity (RH) were also measured continuously. Average concentrations of PM2.5 for the 1989-2001 period ranged from 38.5 microg/m3 to 53 microg/m3. For PM2.5-10 levels ranged from 35.8-48.2 microg/m3 and for PM10 results were 74.4-101.2 microg/m3 across the four sites. Both annual and daily PM2.5 and PM10 concentration levels exceeded the U.S. National Ambient Air Quality Standards and the European Union concentration limits. Mean PM2.5 levels during the cold season (April through September) were more than twice as high as those observed in the warm season (October through March); whereas coarse particle levels were similar in both seasons. PM concentration trends were investigated using regression models, controlling for site, weekday, month, wind speed, temperature, and RH. Results showed that PM2.5 concentrations decreased substantially, 52% over the 12-year period (1989-2000), whereas PM2.5-10 concentrations increased by approximately 50% in the first 5 years and then decreased by a similar percentage over the following 7 years. These decreases were evident even after controlling for significant climatic effects. These results suggest that the pollution reduction programs developed and implemented by the Comisión Nacional del Medio Ambiente (CONAMA) have been effective in reducing particle levels in the Santiago Metropolitan region. However, particle levels remain high and it is thus imperative that efforts to improve air quality continue.     

Investigating the capacity of an activated sludge process to reduce volatile organic compounds and odor emissions.

The effects of hydrogen sulfide (H2S) diffusion into activated sludge (AS) on odor and volatile organic compound (VOC) concentrations in offgas were studied over an 8-week period. Most VOCs detected in the offgas of both aeration tanks were aromatic hydrocarbons. The VOC concentrations generally decreased when H2S was introduced to the AS compared with the control, indicating a negative effect of H2S on VOC removal. Two volatile organic sulfur compounds present in the test AS offgas showed an increase followed by a decrease during H2S peak loads. Six VOCs and odor concentration increased during the introduction of an H2S peak; however no correlation was observed between H2S and odor concentration. The increase in odor concentration resulted from the increase in the concentration of six aromatic VOCs, which had their removal slowed down during a 100-ppmv H2S peak. Activated sludge diffusion provides effective H2S removal with minimal affect on odor emissions.     

气候变化对波罗的海入海河流流量的影响

进入波罗的海的河流流量是在一个面积约160万km2的流域中各种不同气候状况下产生的.波罗的海流域气候的变化不仅影响入海淡水的总量,而且对这些水源的分配亦有影响.利用水文模拟,分析了未来气候变化对波罗的海入海径流的影响.使用了瑞典区域气候模拟计划(SWECLIM)中的4种不同的气候变化情景.根据这些不同的气候情景,全部入海河流总的平均年入海量的变化范围为当前入海量的-2%～+15%.波罗的海不同亚区的入海量的变化是大不相同的,其中最剧烈的年均变化范围是-30%～+40%.但是,所有评价的气候情景的共同点是总体趋势为来自波罗的海流域南部地区入海流量减少,北部地区入海量增加.     

The biogenic content of process streams from mechanical–biological treatment plants producing solid recovered fuel. Do the manual sorting and selective dissolution determination methods correlate?

The carbon emissions trading market has created a need for standard methods for the determination of biogenic content (χ_B) in solid recovered fuels (SRF). We compare the manual sorting (MSM) and selective dissolution methods (SDM), as amended by recent research, for a range of process streams from a mechanical–biological treatment (MBT) plant. The two methods provide statistically different biogenic content values, as expressed on a dry mass basis, uncorrected for ash content. However, they correlate well (r² > 0.9) and the relative difference between them was <5% for χ_B between 21% ^w/w_d and 72% ^w/w_d (uncorrected for ash content). This range includes the average SRF biogenic content of ca. 68% ^w/w_d. Methodological improvements are discussed in light of recent studies. The repeatability of the SDM is characterised by relative standard deviations on triplicates of <2.5% for the studied population.     

Detecting pigments from colourful eggshells of extinct birds

The known chemical basis of diverse avian eggshell coloration is generated by the same two classes of tetrapyrrole pigments in most living birds. We aimed to extend the evolutionary scope of these patterns by detecting pigments from extinct birds’ eggs. In our samples biliverdin was successfully extracted from subfossil shell fragments of the blue-green egg-laying upland moa Megalapteryx didinus, while protoporphyrin was extracted from the beige eggs of two other extinct moa species. Our data on pigment detection from eggshells of other extant paleognath birds, together with published information on other modern lineages, confirm tetrapyrroles as ubiquitous and conserved pigments contributing to diverse eggshell colours throughout avian evolution.     

Sizing and Costing of Electrostatic Precipitators

This is the second of a two-part article that reviews electrostatic precipitation theory, presents size estimating methods, and gives costing procedures for a variety of electrostatic precipitator (ESP) types and sizes. Part I of the article, which appeared in the April 1988 issue of JAPCA, discussed theory and sizing; this part presents costing. Information is given for estimating total capital investment including separate costs for the bare ESP (five types) and auxiliaries. Factors are given for installation and for indirect costs. Direct and indirect annual costs are discussed. An example problem is given.     

Generating Synthetic Rainfall on Various Timescales—Daily, Monthly and Yearly

The main objective of this paper is to present a model for generating synthetic rainfall totals on various timescales to be applicable for a variety of uses. Many large-scale ecological and water resource models require daily, monthly and yearly rainfall data as input to the model. As historical data provides only one realisation, synthetic generated rainfall totals are needed to assess the impact of rainfall variability on water resources systems (Srikanthan, In: MODSIM2005, Melbourne, Dec. 2005, pp. 1915–1921, 2005). Thus, our preferred model should simulate rainfall for yearly, monthly and daily periods. We believe that, for water supply issues, no higher resolution is needed, although higher resolution would be useful in models designed to measure the risk of local flooding. The critical factors are daily, monthly and yearly totals and daily, monthly and yearly variation. A model for generating yearly totals will be described using traditional time series methods. This model, along with a similarly constructed daily generation model by Piantadosi et al. (A New Model for Correlated Daily Rainfall, 2008), will be cascaded to start with a synthetic yearly total, then generate a synthetic sequence of monthly totals (through selection from a large number of realisations) that match the yearly total, and subsequently perform a similar operation for sequences of daily totals to match the required monthly totals. We present a new model for the generation of synthetic monthly rainfall data, which we demonstrate for Parafield in Adelaide, South Australia. The rainfall for each month of the year is modelled as a non-negative random variable from a mixed distribution with either a zero outcome or a strictly positive outcome. We use maximum likelihood to find parameters for both the probability of a zero outcome and the gamma distribution that best matches the observed probability density for the strictly positive outcomes. We describe a new model that generates correlated monthly rainfall totals using a diagonal band copula with a single parameter to generate lag-1 correlated random numbers. Our model preserves the marginal monthly distributions and, hence, also preserves the monthly and yearly means. We show that, for Parafield, the correlation between rainfall totals for successive months is not significant, and so, it is reasonable to assume independence. This is, however, not true for daily rainfall. We describe a new model that generates correlated daily rainfall totals using a diagonal band copula with a single parameter to generate lag-1 correlated random numbers. This is an extended version of a paper presented at the 17th Biennial Congress on Modelling and Simulation, Christchurch, New Zealand, December 2007.