Locational Probability for a Dammed, Urbanizing Stream: Salt River, Arizona, USA

/ Data from historical aerial photographs analyzed with a GIS show that river channel change on the Salt River in the Phoenix metropolitan area of central Arizona has been driven by large-scale regional flood events and local human activities. Mapping of functional surfaces such as low-flow channels, high-flow channels, islands, bars attached to channel banks, and engineered surfaces shows that during the period from 1935 to 1997, the relative areal coverage of these surfaces has changed. Flood events have caused general changes in sinuosity of the low-flow channel, but islands have remained remarkably consistent in location and size, while channel-side bars have waxed and waned. The most important determinant of local channel form and process is sand and gravel mining, which in some reaches occupies more than 70% of the active channel area. The general location of mining is closely related to the location of the moving urban fringe, which serves as a market for sand and gravel during construction. Quantitative spatial analysis of imagery supplemented by field mapping shows that for each location within the general channel area, it is possible to specify a probability of encountering a low-flow channel or other fluvial features. Maps showing the distribution of these probabilities of occurrence reveal the most probable location and configuration of the channel as it occurred in the past. Some reaches have the low-flow channel located persistently within a limited area as a result of bedrock or sinuosity controls, but other reaches dominated by flow separation or shallow gradient have almost no persistence in channel location from one flood to another.     

Using Satellite Imagery to Assess Large-Scale Habitat Characteristics of Adirondack Park, New York, USA

Satellite imagery is a useful tool for large-scale habitat analysis; however, its limitations need to be tested. We tested these limitations by varying the methods of a habitat evaluation for white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) in the Adirondack Park, New York, USA, utilizing harvest data to create and validate the assessment models. We used two classified images, one with a large minimum mapping unit but high accuracy and one with no minimum mapping unit but slightly lower accuracy, to test the sensitivity of the evaluation to these differences. We tested the utility of two methods of assessment, habitat suitability index modeling, and pattern recognition modeling. We varied the scale at which the models were applied by using five separate sizes of analysis windows. Results showed that the presence of a large minimum mapping unit eliminates important details of the habitat. Window size is relatively unimportant if the data are averaged to a large resolution (i.e., township), but if the data are used at the smaller resolution, then the window size is an important consideration. In the Adirondacks, the proportion of hardwood and softwood in an area is most important to the spatial dynamics of deer populations. The low occurrence of open area in all parts of the park either limits the effect of this cover type on the population or limits our ability to detect the effect. The arrangement and interspersion of cover types were not significant to deer populations.     

Remediation with cyclodextrin: Recovery of the remedial agent by membrane filtration

Cyclodextrin‐enhanced flushing of contaminants from the subsurface is a promising innovative remediation technology. It will become more economically viable at more sites if methods can be developed to recover and reconcentrate the cyclodextrin solution after it has been flushed through an aquifer. The goal of this study was to determine if membrane technology is capable of meeting that need. Five membranes with different material properties were tested for this purpose in the laboratory. The results of these tests indicate that there are large differences both in the efficiency of these membranes to extract hydroxpropyl‐β‐cyclodextrin (HPCD) and their stability when exposed to trichloroethylene (TCE) at concentrations near aqueous solubility. Not only does the molecular weigh cutoff (MWCO) of a membrane determine if HPCD can be retained, but crucial selection criteria are the membrane's resistance and compatibility with TCE. Of the five membrane materials tested, only two (polymer composite membrane and polysulfone) met both these requirements. The polymer composite membrane (MPF‐44) showed reliable and stable HPCD recoveries (>95 percent) even when exposed to high TCE concentrations. The polysulfone membrane showed high HPCD recoveries, 88.5 ± 0.4 percent to 97 percent ±1 percent for ultrafiltration and nanofiltration membranes, respectively. However, membrane swelling and deterioration became a problem at high TCE concentrations (>1,000 mg/L). These problems diminished when the TCE concentration was less than 1 mg/L. Field tests demonstrated that batch mode treatment by ultrafiltration doubled the cyclodextrin concentration from 5 to 10 percent within three hours at a constant operating pressure of 13 psi. Under continuous single‐pass treatment conditions, cyclodextrin concentration also increased, although the rate of increase was much smaller than in batch mode. Overall, these tests showed that cyclodextrin recovery is possible under field conditions. © 2007 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

Emotional intelligence and individual performance: evidence of direct and moderated effects

We examined the direct and moderated effects of an ability‐based measure of emotional intelligence (MSCEIT© V2.0) on individual performance in a sample of business undergraduates. Controlling for general mental ability and personality, emotional intelligence explained unique incremental variance in performance ratings on only one of two measures of interpersonal effectiveness (public speaking effectiveness). However, the interaction of emotional intelligence with conscientiousness explained unique incremental variance both in public speaking and group behavior effectiveness, as well as academic performance (cumulative GPA). We conclude that the effects of emotional intelligence on performance are more indirect than direct in nature. Individuals must not only have emotional intelligence, but also must be motivated to use it. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

基于优势隐含周期分析的气象灾害预报

建立了优势因子和优势隐含周期的概念,并提出了多因子逐步回归周期分析的新方法。该方法既能增长预报期,又能充分利用物理因子的重要信息,同时在计算过程中还能挑选出起显著作用的优势因子和优势隐含周期,对预报气象要素的变化趋势效果较好,有一定的实用价值,是气象灾害预报的一条比较有效的途径。     

Mapping Three‐Dimensional Water‐Quality Data in the Chesapeake Bay Using Geostatistics1

Abstract:  Data interpretation and visualization software tools with geostatistical capabilities were adapted, customized, and tested to assist the Chesapeake Bay Program in improving its water‐quality modeling protocols. Tools were required to interpolate, map, and visualize three‐dimensional (3D) water‐quality data, with the capability to determine estimation errors. Components of the software, originally developed for ground‐water modeling, were customized for application in estuaries. Additional software components were developed for retrieval, and for pre‐ and post‐ processing of data. The Chesapeake Bay Program uses the 3D mapped data for input to the Bay water‐quality model that projects the future health of the Bay and its tidal tributary system. In determining water‐quality attainment criteria, 3D kriging estimation errors are needed as a statistical measure of uncertainty. Furthermore, given the high cost of installing and operating new monitoring stations, geostatistical techniques can assist the Chesapeake Bay Program in the identification of suitable data collection locations. Following the evaluation, selection, and development of the software components phase, 3D ordinary kriging techniques with directional semi‐variograms to account for anisotropy were successfully demonstrated for mapping 3D fixed station water‐quality data, such as dissolved oxygen and salinity. Additionally, an improved delineation tool was implemented to simulate the upper and lower pycnocline boundary surfaces allowing the segregation of the interpolated 3D data into three separate zones for a better characterization of the pycnocline layer.     

Modeling of power plant impacts on fish populations

A simulation model was developed for assessing the effects of power plant impacts on fish populations. The model was based on biomass changes in a fish population that divided into 4 life stages: eggs, larvae, juveniles, and adults. Metabolism of fish was included in the model as assimilation and respiration with the effects of temperature push-pull regulation. A cohort technique was used for life stage transfers in the young stages. Compensation was included in terms of density-dependent mortality of the young fish. Power plant impacts on a fish population included entrainment (eggs and larvae) and impingement (juveniles and adults).The model was applied to the gizzard shad (Dorosoma cepedianum) population in Pool 14 of the Mississippi River in Illinois and lowa. The nearby nuclear power plant, the Quad-Cities Station, is located on the Illinois side. The simulation of the model with the 1976 field data estimates of the power plant entrainment and impingement predicted a 10 percent potential reduction of the population over 30 years. The simulated reduction of the population with the effects of different river flows showed that the result with the 1976 river flow data gave 1.5 times higher reduction than the results with data of other plant operation years, 1972 through 1975. Because the 1976 data recorded low river flow, the 10 percent reduction quoted above may be high.     

Municipal sludge management: Health aspects of crop uptake of cadmium from sludge-amended soil and recommendations for regulation

Regulations have been proposed by the United States Environmental Protection Agency to promote the proper management of sludge disposal on croplands. The application of municipal sludge to croplands raises serious questions concerning the increase in dietary levels of metals resulting from metal uptake by crops. A model is presented that affords a quantitative estimate of the dietary increase of metals when foods are derived from sludge-amended soil. If a diet or part of a diet is derived completely from sludge-amended soil, it is likely to be excessive in cadmium and pose a clear health hazard. Recommendations designed to reduce the potential health threat of excessive metals in the diet are presented.