A REVIEW OF APPLICATION ISSUES OF THE METROPOLITAN WATER DISTRICT-MAIN WATER FORECASTING SYSTEM1

ABSTRACT: This paper reviews the processes that occurred during an application of the Metropolitan Water District (MWD)-MAIN water use forecasting system for the City of Salinas, California. The review includes an analysis of sources of available data, methods for estimating input data, calibration, and verification of the MWD-MAIN System, and an evaluation of the reliability of system output. We found that inexperienced users can have difficulty understanding the level of skill, knowledge, and amount of data that are required to produce reliable forecasts. Some of the issues associated with application of the MWD-MAIN System include the following:

• ? All input data needed for accurate forecasts simply are not available for many cities and towns.
• ? The data requirements are more extensive than many users anticipate.
• ? Substantial requirements for manipulation of input data produces opportunity for error that creates major time demands in troubleshooting.
• ? Calibration and verification for specific uses can be substantially more difficult than is readily apparent from the guidance manual.
• ? Independent validity checks need to be done to validate system output.
• ? If specified calibrating procedures do not produce reasonable results, reestimating slope coefficients is an option, but this requires resources and expertise that can easily exceed the limits of most users.

These are problems typical of most complex models. Reviews such as this can help users to appreciate the level of data required, and to use the MWD-MAIN System in a more effective and efficient manner.     

Book reviews

Common Property Economics: A General Theory and Land Use Applications

Glenn G. Stevenson

Cambridge, Cambridge University Press, 1992, XIV + 256pp., £35

Controversial Issues in Environmental Policy: Science vs Economics vs Politics

Kent E. Portney

London, Sage, 1992, 181 pp. £22.00 hb., £10.95 pb.

Economics of Natural Resources and the Environment

E. Kula

London, Chapman & Hall, 1992, 287 pp., £40

Policy Implications of Greenhouse Warming: Mitigation, Adaptation and the Science Base

Committee on Science, Engineering and Public Policy (US), Panel on Policy

Implications of Greenhouse Warming

Washington, DC, National Academy Press, 1992, xxiii + 918 pp., $89.95 hb.

Contemporary Rural Systems in Transition, Volume 1: Agriculture and Environment, Volume 2: Economy and Society

I. Bowler, C. Bryant & M.Nellis (Eds)

Wallingford, CAB International, 1992, 288 pp. + 336 pp., £35 + £40 (2 vols. £70) hb.

Third World Cities: Problems, Policies and Prospects

John Kasarda & Allan Parnell (Eds) London, Sage, 1993, 310 pp., £19.50 pb.

Pricing the European Environment

Stale Navrud (Ed)

Oxford, Oxford University Press/Scandinavian University Press, 1992, 288 pp., £30.00 hb.     

Dynamics of biomass partitioning in field-grown radish varieties, treated with ethylenediurea

During the growing season of 1990, five staggered crops of radish (Raphanus sativus L.) were grown in the field, using the cultivars 'Cherry Belle', 'Red Prince', and 'Red Devil B'. Half of the plants received a soil drench (100 ml plant(-1); 100 mg litre(-1) of ethylenediurea (EDU) once, early in plant development. Destructive harvests were carried out at 2-day intervals during vegetative development. Non-linear growth kinetics, derived from Richards' function, were fitted to the dry weight data of the total plant, main organs (shoot and hypocotyl) and to the dry weight ratio between below-ground and above-ground organs. Estimating the parameters of these non-linear functions and testing their differences between EDU-treated and untreated plants unveiled biologically meaningful information on the impact of different levels of ambient ozone (O(3)) during the growth periods. The modified function which was applied to the data of biomass partitioning between the major plant parts was more powerful in detecting transient alterations in assimilate allocation compared to the growth dynamics of individual plant organs. At low levels of O(3), biomass partitioning towards the below-ground sink organs was slightly delayed and finally restricted in EDU-treated plants. When ambient O(3) reached moderate levels, which did not cause visible foliar injury, assimilate partitioning between organs was only insignificantly altered during early growth when EDU-treatments were compared. As growth progressed, however, less assimilates were allocated towards the hypocotyl and roots in the plants not protected by EDU. This pattern was similar in all cultivars tested, but was smallest in 'Cherry Belle', which is known to be sensitive to O(3) with respect to foliar injury. During the 15- to 19-day periods of rapid growth, the O(3)-exposure >80 nl litre(-1) ranged from 0.015 to 0.209 microl litre(-1) O(3) h, which corresponds to 7 h d(-1) mean values between 40 and 50 nl litre(-1) O(3), confirming that ambient ozone did not exceed a moderate level in this study.     

Radish (Raphanus sativus L.): a model for studying plant responses to air pollutants and other environmental stresses

The use of Raphanus sativus L. as a model crop for studies on plant response to environmental stresses is reviewed with emphasis on the effects of different atmospheric pollutants (O(3), SO(2), NO(2), acidic precipitation) and their combinations. Responses to temperature, light supply, water stress, and atmospheric CO(2) are also studied and discussed. In addition, the references reviewed are evaluated in terms of their experimental protocols on growth conditions and recommendations for optimal ranges of environmental and cultural variables, i.e. light, temperature, nutrient supply are given. Its distinct pattern of biomass partitioning, the small dimensions along with short and easy culture make radish an excellent experimental plant. The fleshy below-ground storage organ, formed by the hypocotyl and upper radicle, acts as the major sink during vegetative development. Abundant assimilate supply due to elevated levels of CO(2) along with high irradiation frequently promote hypocotyl growth more than shoot growth, whereas under conditions of stress shoot growth is maintained at the expense of the hypocotyl. This makes the hypocotyl: shoot ratio of radish a very sensitive and suitable indicator for various environmental stresses. Potential weaknesses and shortcomings of radish in its role as a model crop, particularly the high variability of injury and growth responses, are discussed along with possible solutions. Future research needs are derived from the summarized results presented and from some disparities among findings within the literature reviewed.     

Carbon-14, tree rings,and urban air pollution

Differences in natural ¹⁴C content of rings from trees from urban and rural locations have been compared on a year by year basis. The differences as a fraction of the urban tree's radioactivity reflect the local excess ¹⁴C-free carbon dioxide from fossil fuel combustion in the urban environment. New York City, Boston, and Washington, D.C., show different degrees of excess carbon dioxide. New York City averages about 6% excess carbon dioxide between 1950 and 1970. From this is infered an average carbon monoxide concentration during this period of 5 ppm.     

FECAL COLIFORM SOURCE ASSESSMENT IN A SMALL,MIXED LAND USE WATERSHED1

ABSTRACT: This study presents the results of fecal coliform (FC) sampling in the Rawls Creek, South Carolina, watershed during 1999 and 2000. The work was undertaken because the watershed is listed on the 303(d) list for South Carolina due to FC excursions. The watershed is 43.8 percent residential, 35 percent forest, 5.7 percent mixed urban, 4.9 percent commercial, and 4.8 percent agriculture. Samples were taken at 15 stations during eight field trips divided into two phases to characterize FC inputs from subbasins and to integrate results from upstream sampling. FC concentrations ranged from 135 to 730 colonies/100 ml. Results suggest that retention ponds in the area are a significant factor in attenuation of FC concentrations. Catchments with the largest contiguous impervious areas are the greatest source of FC. The highest concentrations of FC were observed at stations just downstream from a large detention basin that intercepts storm runoff from a large commercial area. Further analysis of the design and performance of that structure is suggested. The Koon Branch tributary is less than 20 percent of the land area in the watershed but may contribute 40 percent of the fecal loading. The results of this study confirm the importance of site assessments to aid understanding of nonpoint source pollution in complex watersheds.     

INTEGRATING LANDSCAPE ASSESSMENT AND HYDROLOGIC MODELING FOR LAND COVER CHANGE ANALYSIS1

ABSTRACT: Significant land cover changes have occurred in the watersheds that contribute runoff to the upper San Pedro River in Sonora, Mexico, and southeast Arizona. These changes, observed using a series of remotely sensed images taken in the 1970s, 1980s, and 1990s, have been implicated in the alteration of the basin hydrologic response. The Cannonsville subwatershed, located in the Catskill/Delaware watershed complex that delivers water to New York City, provides a contrast in land cover change. In this region, the Cannonsville watershed condition has improved over a comparable time period. A landscape assessment tool using a geographic information system (GIS) has been developed that automates the parameterization of the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) and KINEmatic Runoff and EROSion (KINEROS) hydrologic models. The Automated Geospatial Watershed Assessment (AGWA) tool was used to prepare parameter input files for the Upper San Pedro Basin, a subwatershed within the San Pedro undergoing significant changes, and the Cannonsville watershed using historical land cover data. Runoff and sediment yield were simulated using these models. In the Cannonsville watershed, land cover change had a beneficial impact on modeled watershed response due to the transition from agriculture to forest land cover. Simulation results for the San Pedro indicate that increasing urban and agricultural areas and the simultaneous invasion of woody plants and decline of grasslands resulted in increased annual and event runoff volumes, flashier flood response, and decreased water quality due to sediment loading. These results demonstrate the usefulness of integrating remote sensing and distributed hydrologic models through the use of GIS for assessing watershed condition and the relative impacts of land cover transitions on hydrologic response.     

Business ideologies and perceived breach of contract during downsizing: the role of the ideology of employee self‐reliance

This paper represents an initial effort to explore the empirical relationship between business ideologies and perceptions of organizational downsizing. The results of four studies, two conducted in the US and one each in Singapore and Korea, suggest that respondents' belief in the ideology of employee self‐reliance reduces the degree to which they perceive layoffs as a breach of the psychological contract. This finding appears to generalize to respondents' perceptions of their own layoffs and also to respondents' perceptions of layoffs happening to others. We spell out the implications of these results for the evolving theory of the ideological foundations of perceptions of downsizing. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

IDENTIFYING DISCHARGE ZONES OF ARSENIC IN THE GOOSE RIVER BASIN,MAINE1

ABSTRACT: Water balance modeling and the analysis of stable water isotopes in ground water were conducted to aid the location of ground water discharge areas within the Goose River basin, in mid‐coastal Maine. Previous investigations of drinking water from wells in the fractured crystalline bedrock encountered persistent elevated total arsenic. Such contamination may be related to discharging ground water from fractured zones in the basin. Modeled discharge rates greater than +10 cm/yr and ¹⁸O values lighter than‐9.5 per mil VSMOW may indicate recent recharge is mixing with deeper ground water and is focused along some fractured zones in arsenic bearing crystalline rocks.     

Environmental load of Cryptosporidium parvum oocysts from cattle manure in feedlots from the central and western United States

The first step in assessing the risk of water contamination by Cryptosporidium parvum oocysts from feedlot cattle (Bos taurus) production systems is to quantify the number of C. parvum oocysts present in the fecal material deposited by feedlot cattle. Our primary objective for this project was to estimate the daily environmental load of C. parvum oocysts in fecal material deposited by feedlot cattle from across the central and western USA. Our secondary goal was to genotype isolates of C. parvum from feedlot cattle to help facilitate proper identification of mammalian sources of waterborne C. parvum. Based on 5274 fecal samples from 22 feedlots in seven states (California, Washington, Colorado, Oklahoma, Texas, Nebraska, and South Dakota), we estimated a point prevalence of C. parvum of 0.99 to 1.08% in fecal material from feedlot pens from a wide range of climates and a diverse range of feedlot management systems. On average, fresh fecal material from throughout feedlot systems (recent arrivals to nearing slaughter) contained about 1.3 to 3.6 oocysts/g feces, which roughly translates to about 2.8 x 10(4) to 1.4 x 10(5) oocysts/animal per day.