A Preliminary Look at Source-Receptor Relationships in the Texas-Mexico Border Area

ABSTRACT

Several factors have recently caused visibility impairment at Big Bend National Park, TX, to be of interest. Analyses of historical data collected there have shown that visibility is poorer and fine particle concentrations are higher at Big Bend than at other monitored Class I areas in the western United States. In addition, air masses frequently arrive there after crossing Mexico, where emissions are not well known. During September and October 1996, a field study was undertaken to begin examining the aerosol, visibility, and meteorology on both sides of the border. Results indicate that, during the study, the largest fractions of fine mass and light extinction at Big Bend were due to sulfates and the trace elements most closely associated with sulfate particles were Na and Se. Based on back trajectory modeling and the spatial, temporal, and inter-species relationships in the fine particle concentrations measured during the study, sulfates arrived at the park from both Mexico and the United States. Se was higher in Texas than in Northern Mexico, while V, Pb, Zn, Ni, and Mn were on average much higher in Mexico.     

Light Scattering Characteristics of Aerosols at Ambient and as a Function of Relative Humidity: Part II—A Comparison of Measured Scattering and Aerosol Concentrations Using Statistical Models

ABSTRACT

The eastern United States national parks experience some of the worst visibility conditions in the nation. To study these conditions, the Southeastern Aerosol and Visibility Study (SEAVS) was undertaken to characterize the size-dependent composition, thermodynamic properties, and optical characteristics of the ambient atmospheric particles. It is a cooperative three-year study that is sponsored by the National Park Service and the Electric Power Research Institute and its member utilities. The field portion of the study was carried out from July 15 to August 25, 1995.

The study design, instrumental configuration, and estimation of aerosol types from particle measurements is presented in a companion paper. In the companion paper, we compare measurements of scattering at ambient conditions and as functions of relative humidity to theoretical predictions of scattering. In this paper, we make similar comparisons, but using statistical techniques. Statistically derived specific scattering associated with sulfates suggest that a reasonable estimate of sulfate scattering can be arrived at by assuming nominal dry specific scattering and treating the aerosols as an external mixture with ammoniation of sulfate accounted for and by the use of Tang's growth curves to predict water absorption. However, the regressions suggest that the sulfate scattering may be underestimated by about 10%. Regression coefficients on organics, to within the statistical uncertainty of the model, suggest that a reasonable estimate of organic scattering is about 4.0 m²/g.

A new analysis technique is presented, which does not rely on comparing measured to model estimates of scattering to evoke an understanding of ambient aerosol growth properties, but rather relies on measurements of scattering as a function of relative humidity to develop actual estimates of f(RH) curves. The estimates of the study average f(RH) curve for sulfates compares favorably with the theoretical f(RH) curve for ammonium bisulfate, which is in turn consistent with the study average sulfate am-moniation corresponding to a molar ratio of NH₄/SO₄ of approximately one. The f(RH) curve for organics is not significantly different from one, suggesting that organics are weakly to nonhygroscopic.     

Light Scattering Characteristics of Aerosols as a Function of Relative Humidity: Part I—A Comparison of Measured Scattering and Aerosol Concentrations Using the Theoretical Models

ABSTRACT

The Southeastern Aerosol and Visibility Study (SEAVS) was undertaken to characterize the size-dependent composition, thermodynamic properties, and optical characteristics of the ambient atmospheric particles in the southeastern United States. The field portion of the study was carried out from July 15 to August 25, 1995.

As part of the study a relative humidity controlled inlet was built to raise or lower the relative humidity to predetermined levels before the aerosol was passed into an integrating nephelometer or particle-sizing device. Five other integrating nephelometers were operated in various configurations, two of which were fitted with a 2.5 μm inlet. Fine particle (<2.5 μm) samplers were operated to measure concentrations of sulfate, nitrate, and ammonium ions, organic and elemental carbon, and fine soil. Mass size distributions were measured with an eight-stage, single orifice cascade impactor.     

Interpretation of Trends of PM25 and Reconstructed Visibility from the IMPROVE Network

ABSTRACT

Under the IMPROVE visibility monitoring network, federal land managers have monitored visibility and fine particle concentrations at 29 Class I area sites (mostly national parks and wilderness areas) and Washington, DC since 1988. This paper evaluates trends in reconstructed visibility and fine particles for the 10th (best visibility days), 50th (average visibility days), and 90th (worst visibility days) percentiles over the nine-year period from 1988-96. Data from these sites provides an indication of regional trends in air quality and visibility resulting from implementation of various emission reduction strategies.     

Mercury Measurement and Its Control: What We Know,Have Learned,and Need to Further Investigate

ABSTRACT

Based on the available evidence of health effects, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has been evaluating the need to regulate mercury releases to the environment. In response to the congressional mandates in The 1990 Clean Air Act Amendments (CAAA), the EPA has issued the Mercury Study Report and the Study of Hazardous Air Pollutant Emissions from Electric Utility Steam Generating Units Report. In spite of the enormous effort represented by these reports, as well as the efforts of both the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) and the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI), in conducting the field measurement programs that form the basis for these reports, a definitive answer on the need for mercury regulation has not been found. However, the EPA, as well as other regulatory agencies and health researchers, have suggested a “plausible link” between anthropogenic sources emitting mercury and the methylation, bioaccumulation in the food chain, and adverse health effects in humans and wildlife.

Policy-makers have recognized that regulations must be based on good science and that a number of issues still remain. These issues can generally be grouped into four main categories: emissions inventory, control technology, fate of releases, and health effects. This paper will discuss recent, ongoing, and planned studies to address the remaining issues regarding the presence of mercury in the environment, with an emphasis on those studies that are directly related to the DOE/Federal Energy Technology Center’s (FETC) programmatic effort.     

Modeled response of ozone to electricity generation emissions in the northeastern United States using three sensitivity techniques

Electrical generation units (EGUs) are important sources of nitrogen oxides (NO_x) that contribute to ozone air pollution. A dynamic management system can anticipate high ozone and dispatch EGU generation on a daily basis to attempt to avoid violations, temporarily scaling back or shutting down EGUs that most influence the high ozone while compensating for that generation elsewhere. Here we investigate the contributions of NO_x from individual EGUs to high daily ozone, with the goal of informing the design of a dynamic management system. In particular, we illustrate the use of three sensitivity techniques in air quality models—brute force, decoupled direct method (DDM), and higher-order DDM—to quantify the sensitivity of high ozone to NO_x emissions from 80 individual EGUs. We model two episodes with high ozone in the region around Pittsburgh, PA, on August 4 and 13, 2005, showing that the contribution of 80 EGUs to 8-hr daily maximum ozone ranges from 1 to >5 ppb at particular locations. At these locations and on the two high ozone days, shutting down power plants roughly 1.5 days before the 8-hr ozone violation causes greater ozone reductions than 1 full day before; however, the benefits of shutting down roughly 2 days before the high ozone are modest compared with 1.5 days. Using DDM, we find that six EGUs are responsible for >65% of the total EGU ozone contribution at locations of interest; in some locations, a single EGU is responsible for most of the contribution. Considering ozone sensitivities for all 80 EGUs, DDM performs well compared with a brute-force simulation with a small normalized mean bias (–0.20), while this bias is reduced when using the higher-order DDM (–0.10).

Implications: Dynamic management of electrical generation has the potential to meet daily ozone air quality standards at low cost. We show that dynamic management can be effective at reducing ozone, as EGU contributions are important and as the number of EGUs that contribute to high ozone in a given location is small (<6). For two high ozone days and seven geographic regions, EGUs would best be shut down or their production scaled back roughly 1.5 days before the forecasted exceedance. Including online sensitivity techniques in an air quality forecasting model can provide timely and useful information on which EGUs would be most beneficial to shut down or scale back temporarily.     

The air quality forecast rote: Recent changes and future challenges

Air quality forecasting is a recent development, with most programs initiated only in the last 20 years. During the last decade, forecast preparation procedure—the forecast rote—has changed dramatically. This paper summarizes the unique challenges posed by air quality forecasting, details the current forecast rote, and analyzes prospects for future improvements. Because air quality forecasts must diagnose and predict several pollutants and their precursors in addition to standard meteorological variables, it is, compared with weather forecasts, a higher-uncertainty forecast. Forecasters seek to contain the uncertainty by “anchoring” the forecast, using an a priori field, and then “adjusting” the forecast using additional information. The air quality a priori, or first guess, field is a blend of past, current, and near-term future observations of the pollutants of interest, on both local and regional scales, and is typically coupled with predicted air parcel trajectories. Until recently, statistical methods, based on long-term training data sets, were used to adjust the first guess. However, reductions in precursor emissions in the United States, beginning in the late 1990s and continuing to the present, eroded the stationarity assumption for the training data sets and degraded forecast skill. Beginning in the mid-2000s, output from modified numerical air quality prediction (NAQP) models, originally developed to test pollution control strategies, became available in near real time for forecast support. The current adjustment process begins with the analyses and postprocessing of individual NAQP models and their ad hoc ensembles, often in concert with new statistical techniques. The final adjustment step uses forecaster expertise to assess the impact of mesoscale features not resolved by the NAQP models. It is expected that advances in model resolution, chemical data assimilation, and the formulation of emissions fields will improve mesoscale predictions by NAQP models and drive future changes in the forecast rote.

Implications: Routine air quality forecasts are now issued for nearly all the major U.S. metropolitan areas. Methods of forecast preparation—the forecast rote—have changed significantly in the last decade. Numerical air quality models have matured and are now an indispensable part of the forecasting process. All forecasting methods, particularly statistically based models, must be continually calibrated to account for ongoing local- and regional-scale emission reductions.     

Ownership property size,landscape structure,and spatial relationships in the Edwards Plateau of Texas (USA): landscape scale habitat management implications

The present research focused on using spatial analysis to determine relationships among land ownership property sizes and landscape structure, with a focus on conservation management implications. Indices and metrics of ownership property sizes and landscape structure were calculated for 20 km buffer areas around 31 North American Breeding Bird Survey transects, 12 located within the Edwards Plateau ecoregion and 18 in contiguous ecoregions. The number of bird species observed at each transect provided a measure of avian species richness associated with land cover classes for each respective transect (González in Urban influence on diversity of avifauna in the Edwards Plateau of Texas: effect of property sizes on rural landscape structure, Texas A&M University, 2005). Spatial correlations were calculated between each pair of the landscape indices. Spatial analysis identified a “threshold of habitat fragmentation” for the 500 acre (ac) ownership property size. Significant spatial correlations among variables showed that property sizes lower than 500 ac produced habitat fragmentation represented by a decrease in mean patch size (MN) and proximity among habitat patches (Index PROX). Spatial analysis also made possible the prioritization of ecological sub-regions of the Edwards Plateau for conservation or restoration. The Live Oak-Mesquite Savannah showed the highest average ownership property size (7305 ac) and the highest values of patch richness. Based on the results, management in the Live Oak-Mesquite Savannah sub-region should focus on the conservation of land mosaic diversity to assure native avian species turnover (Whittaker 1972). In Balcones Canyon Lands, 64 % of land was covered by farms smaller than 500 ac and the overall average ownership property size was above the threshold of fragmentation (1440 ac), implying that management policies there should focus both on habitat conservation and on restoration. In contrast, 71 % of land in the Lampasas Cut Plains was covered by farms smaller than 500 ac, and average ownership property size was very close to the fragmentation threshold (625 ac). Consequently, the results indicate that management in the Lampasas Cut Plains sub-region should focus on habitat restoration (e.g., corridors that connect isolated habitat patches). In general, the threshold of ownership property size, 500 ac, is important for conservation planning because below that threshold of property size, habitat patch size begins to decrease and the distance between equivalent patches of habitat increases. Isolated patches act as islands within a sea of less suitable habitat which produce negative effects on biodiversity. Identifying the spatial characteristics indicative of habitat fragmentation, or the likelihood thereof, is an important issue for conservation planning in places with urban sprawl influence.     

Direct and indirect land-use change as prospective climate change indicators for peri-urban development transitions

With urban areas responsible for a significant share of total anthropogenic emissions, greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions due to land-use change (LUC) induced by peri-urban (PU) development have the potential to be considerable. Despite this, there is little research into the transition from PU cropland to housing in terms of contribution to global warming. This paper presents a cross-sectoral integrative method for prospective climate change evaluation of PU LUC. Specifically, direct LUC (dLUC) GHG emissions from converting PU cropland to greenfield housing were examined. Additionally, GHG emissions due to displaced crop production inducing indirect LUC (iLUC) elsewhere were assessed. GHG impacts of dLUC and iLUC were each determined to be approximately 8 per cent of total GHG emissions due to a greenfield housing development displacing PU cropland. This magnitude of dLUC and iLUC emissions suggests that both have importance in future land-use decision making with respect to PU environments.     

Speciation of metals in contaminated sediments from Oskarshamn Harbor,Oskarshamn, Sweden

Bottom sediments in coastal regions have been considered the ultimate sink for a number of contaminants, e.g., toxic metals. In this current study, speciation of metals in contaminated sediments of Oskarshamn harbor in the southeast of Sweden was performed in order to evaluate metal contents and their potential mobility and bioavailability. Sediment speciation was carried out by the sequential extraction BCR procedure for As, Cd, Cr, Cu, Hg, Ni, Pb, and Zn and the exchangeable (F1), reducible (F2), oxidizable (F3), and residual (R) fractions were determined. The results have shown that Zn and Cd were highly associated with the exchangeable fraction (F1) with 42–58 % and 43–46 %, respectively, of their total concentrations in the mobile phase. The assessment of sediment contamination on the basis of quality guidelines established by the Swedish Environmental Protection Agency (SEPA) and the Italian Ministry of Environment (Venice protocol for dredged sediments) has shown that sediments from Oskarshamn harbor are highly contaminated with toxic metals, especially Cu, Cd, Pb, Hg, As, and Zn posing potential ecological risks. Therefore, it is of crucial importance the implementation of adequate strategies to tackle contaminated sediments in coastal regions all over the world.