Road-tunnel fires: Risk perception and management strategies among users

The present study was aimed at investigating road users’ perceptions and behaviors in case of a fire in a tunnel. It is grounded on the idea that in order to effectively prevent accidents and fires in tunnels, it may be useful to take tunnel users’ beliefs, representations, and coping strategies into account [Kouabenan, D.R., 1998. Beliefs and the perception of risks and accidents. Risk Analysis, an International Journal 18, 243–252; Kouabenan, D.R., 2001. Management de la sécurité: rôle des croyances et des perceptions. In : Lévy-Léboyer, C., Huteau, M., Louche, C., Rolland, J.P. (Eds.), RH: Les apports de la psychologie du travail. Les Editions d’Organisation, Paris, pp. 453–474; Kouabenan, D.R., Cadet, B., 2005. Risk evaluation and accident analysis. Advances in Psychology Research 36, 61–80; Kouabenan, D.R., Dubois, M., Scarnato, F., De Gaudemaris, R., Mallaret, M.R., 2007. Methicillin-Resistant Staphylococcus Aureus Risk Perception by Healthcare Personnel in a Public Hospital. Social Behavior and Personality, 35, 1] One hundred and fifty-one road users (firemen, truck drivers, regular drivers, and driving-school students) filled out a questionnaire measuring their perceptions of risks and control in road tunnels, their awareness of safety and rescue devices, their level of anxiety, and their behavioral intentions in the event of a fire in a road tunnel. The results indicated a relationship between fire-risk perception, awareness of rescue and safety devices, and road-tunnel experience; a tendency toward comparative optimism (CO); an effect of perceived control on optimism; and a relationship between CO and awareness of safety devices. A significant interaction was found between tunnel users’ anxiety level and their perceived control over the situation. The evacuation behaviors and coping strategies reported by the participants were far from reflecting the expected behaviors. Recommendations for a long-term prevention policy bearing jointly on beliefs, behaviors, improved information and warning systems are suggested.     

Using a Balanced Scorecard to Implement Sustainability

Developing social and environmental balanced scorecard measures helps EH&S managers identify the key performance factors that link their department's work to the company's strategic objectives. © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.     

A General Equilibrium Assessment of Climate Change Impacts on Swiss Winter Tourism with Adaptation

Winter alpine tourism has been repeatedly identified as one of the economic sectors most at risk from climate change in Switzerland. However, all of the costs that have been estimated so far for the Swiss tourism sector are, to some extent, misleading as they do not, or only partially, incorporate adaptation possibilities and general equilibrium effects. We attempt to fill this gap using a computable general equilibrium model that is specifically designed for the purposes of this research. Our modeling efforts first consist in creating a tourism sector with a part of it being dependent on snow. We also carefully model the snowmaking technology. Using climate change scenarios on future snow cover, we analyze their impacts on the Swiss ski industry. We find welfare effects for the Swiss economy ranging from − 23 to 113 million CHF in 2050. This range arises from the use of various assumptions concerning adaptation possibilities. We also show that geographical substitutions between international ski destinations have large positive effects for Switzerland. From a more general perspective, our results exemplify the risks of estimating the consequences of climate change based only on domestic impacts of climate change with no adaptation being implemented.

     

A Satellite Model of Forest Flammability

We describe a model of forest flammability, based on daily satellite observations, for national to regional applications. The model defines forest flammability as the percent moisture content of fuel, in the form of litter of varying sizes on the forest floor. The model uses formulas from the US Forest Service that describe moisture exchange between fuel and the surrounding air and precipitation. The model is driven by estimates of temperature, humidity, and precipitation from the moderate resolution imaging spectrometer and tropical rainfall measuring mission multi-satellite precipitation analysis. We provide model results for the southern Amazon and northern Chaco regions. We evaluate the model in a tropical forest-to-woodland gradient in lowland Bolivia. Results from the model are significantly correlated with those from the same model driven by field climate measurements. This model can be run in a near real-time mode, can be applied to other regions, and can be a cost-effective input to national fire management programs.     

Tailoring dam structures to water quality predictions in new reservoir projects: Assisting decision-making using numerical modeling

Selection of reservoir location, the floodable basin forest handling, and the design of dam structures devoted to water supply (e.g. water outlets) constitute relevant features which strongly determine water quality and frequently demand management strategies to be adopted. Although these crucial aspects should be carefully examined during dam design before construction, currently the development of ad hoc limnological studies tailoring dam location and dam structures to the water quality characteristics expected in the future reservoir is not typical practice. In this study, we use numerical simulation to assist on the design of a new dam project in Spain with the aim of maximizing the quality of the water supplied by the future reservoir. First, we ran a well-known coupled hydrodynamic and biogeochemical dynamic numerical model (DYRESM–CAEDYM) to simulate the potential development of anoxic layers in the future reservoir. Then, we generated several scenarios corresponding to different potential hydraulic conditions and outlet configurations. Second, we built a simplified numerical model to simulate the development of the hypolimnetic oxygen content during the maturation stage after the first reservoir filling, taking into consideration the degradation of the terrestrial organic matter flooded and the adoption of different forest handling scenarios. Results are discussed in terms of reservoir design and water quality management. The combination of hypolimnetic withdrawal from two deep outlets and the removal of all the valuable terrestrial vegetal biomass before flooding resulted in the best water quality scenario.     

An Oligopoly Game of CDR Strategy Deployment in a Steady-State Net-Zero Emission Climate Regime

In this paper, we propose a simple oligopoly game model to represent the interactions between coalitions of countries in deploying carbon dioxide removal (CDR) strategies in a steady-state net-zero emission climate regime that could take place by the end of the twenty-first century. The emission quotas and CDR activities obtained in the solution of this steady-state model could then be used as a target for end-of-period conditions in a dynamic integrated assessment analysis studying the transition to 2100. More precisely, we analyze a steady-state situation where m coalitions exist and behave as m players in a game of supplying emission rights on an international emission trading system. The quotas supplied by a coalition must correspond to the amount of CO₂ captured through CDR activities in the corresponding world region. We use an extension of the computable general equilibrium model GEMINI-E3 to calibrate the payoff functions and compute an equilibrium solution in the noncooperative game.

     

Adapting a geographical information system-based water resource management to the needs of the Romanian water authorities

Background, aim, and scope

The need for global and integrated approaches to water resources management, both from the quantitative and the qualitative point of view, has long been recognized. Water quality management is a major issue for sustainable development and a mandatory task with respect to the implementation of the European Water Framework Directive as well as the Swiss legislation. However, data modelling to develop relational databases and subsequent geographic information system (GIS)-based water management instruments are a rather recent and not that widespread trend. The publication of overall guidelines for data modelling along with the EU Water Framework Directive is an important milestone in this area. Improving overall water quality requires better and more easily accessible data, but also the possibility to link data to simulation models. Models are to be used to derive indicators that will in turn support decision-making processes. For this whole chain to become effective at a river basin scale, all its components have to become part of the current daily practice of the local water administration. Any system, tool, or instrument that is not designed to meet, first of all, the fundamental needs of its primary end-users has almost no chance to be successful in the longer term.

Materials and methods

Although based on a pre-existing water resources management system developed in Switzerland, the methodological approach applied to develop a GIS-based water quality management system adapted to the Romanian context followed a set of well-defined steps: the first and very important step is the assessment of needs (on the basis of a careful analysis of the various activities and missions of the water administration and other relevant stakeholders in water management related issues). On that basis, a conceptual data model (CDM) can be developed, to be later on turned into a physical database. Finally, the specifically requested additional functionalities (i.e. functionalities not provided by classical commercial GIS software), also identified during the assessment of needs, are developed. This methodology was applied, on an experimental basin, in the Ialomita River basin.

Results

The results obtained from this action-research project consist of a set of tangible elements, among which (1) a conceptual data model adapted to the Romanian specificities regarding water resources management (needs, data availability, etc.), (2) a related spatial relational database (objects and attributes in tables, links, etc.), that can be used to store the data collected, among others, by the water administration, and later on exploited with geographical information systems, (3) a toolbar (in the ESRI environment) offering the requested data processing and visualizing functionalities. Lessons learned from this whole process can be considered as additional, although less tangible, results.

Discussion

The applied methodology is fairly classical and did not come up with revolutionary results. Actually, the interesting aspects of this work are, on the one hand, and obviously, the fact that it produced tools matching the needs of the local (if not national) water administration (i.e. with a good chance of being effectively used in the day-to-day practice), and, on the other hand, the adaptations and adjustments that were needed both at the staff level and in technical terms.

Conclusions

This research showed that a GIS-based water management system needs to be backed by some basic data management tools that form the necessary support upon which a GIS can be deployed. The main lesson gained is that technology transfer has to pay much attention to the differences in existing situations and backgrounds in general, and therefore must be able to show much flexibility. The fact that the original objectives could be adapted to meet the real needs of the local end-users is considered as a major aspect in achieving a successful adaptation and development of water resources management tools. Time needed to setup things in real life was probably the most underestimated aspect in this technology transfer process.

Recommendations and perspectives

The whole material produced (conceptual data model, database and GIS tools) was disseminated among all river basin authorities in Romania on the behalf of the national water administration (ANAR). The fact that further developments, for example, to address water quantity issues more precisely, as envisaged by ANAR, can be seen as an indication that this project succeeded in providing an appropriate input to improve water quality in Romania on the long term.

     

Central power generation versus distributed generation – An air quality assessment in the South Coast Air Basin of California

This study assesses the air quality impacts of central power generation and compares them with the impacts of distributed generation (DG). The central power plant emissions factors used are from a newly installed combined cycle gas turbine system. Because location of power plants is a key parameter affecting air quality impacts, this study considers three potential locations for the installation of central power plants. Air quality impacts are evaluated for the South Coast Air Basin of California, in the year 2010, using a three-dimensional air quality model. Results are compared to air quality impacts from two potential DG scenarios to meet the same power demand as that of the central power plant case.Even though emissions from central generation are lower than emissions from the DG technology mix considered herein, central generation concentrates emissions in a small area, whereas DG spreads emissions throughout a larger cross-section of the air basin. As a result, air quality impacts from central generation are more significant than those from DG. The study also shows that assessment of air quality impacts from distributed and central generation should not only consider emissions levels, but also the spatial and temporal distribution of emissions and the air quality that results from atmospheric chemistry and transport – highly non-linear processes.Finally, analysis of population exposure to ozone and PM_2.5 shows that central generation located in coastal areas upwind from populated areas would cause the highest population exposure and even though emissions from central generation are considerably lower than DG emissions spread throughout the basin, results show that central generation causes a higher pollutant exposure than DG.     

Combining qualitative and quantitative understanding for exploring cross-sectoral climate change impacts, adaptation and vulnerability in Europe

Climate change will affect all sectors of society and the environment at all scales, ranging from the continental to the national and local. Decision-makers and other interested citizens need to be able to access reliable science-based information to help them respond to the risks of climate change impacts and assess opportunities for adaptation. Participatory integrated assessment (IA) tools combine knowledge from diverse scientific disciplines, take account of the value and importance of stakeholder ‘lay insight’ and facilitate a two-way iterative process of exploration of ‘what if’s’ to enable decision-makers to test ideas and improve their understanding of the complex issues surrounding adaptation to climate change. This paper describes the conceptual design of a participatory IA tool, the CLIMSAVE IA Platform, based on a professionally facilitated stakeholder engagement process. The CLIMSAVE (climate change integrated methodology for cross-sectoral adaptation and vulnerability in Europe) Platform is a user-friendly, interactive web-based tool that allows stakeholders to assess climate change impacts and vulnerabilities for a range of sectors, including agriculture, forests, biodiversity, coasts, water resources and urban development. The linking of models for the different sectors enables stakeholders to see how their interactions could affect European landscape change. The relationship between choice, uncertainty and constraints is a key cross-cutting theme in the conduct of past participatory IA. Integrating scenario development processes with an interactive modelling platform is shown to allow the exploration of future uncertainty as a structural feature of such complex problems, encouraging stakeholders to explore adaptation choices within real-world constraints of future resource availability and environmental and institutional capacities, rather than seeking the ‘right’ answers.