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The reasons for developing quantitative estimates of uncertainty in environmental risk assessments are discussed along with a method for developing them which involves scientific judgement. In the situation considered here the regulatory needs are ahead of the science, which makes the development of the estimates on uncertainty more difficult, but not impossible. Quantitative estimates for all uncertainties involved in the estimation of risk resulting from exposure to volatile organic compounds (VOCs) in drinking water are developed and tabulated. By far the largest contribution to the uncertainty in the risk estimates for VOCs in drinking water are due to uncertainty in the extrapolation of the dose-response curve to low levels. The uncertainty due to extrapolation is on the order of 104 and 106. Other components of the analysis may contribute uncertainties of a few orders of magnitude. In general the largest uncertainties are in the toxicological data base and the manipulation of it needed to estimate risk. The data base and manipulations needed to estimate exposure due to VOCs in drinking water were at the more an order to magnitudes in uncertainty. 相似文献
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234U and 230Th determination by FIA-ICP-MS and application to uranium-series disequilibrium in marine samples 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
Godoy ML Godoy JM Kowsmann R Dos Santos GM Petinatti da Cruz R 《Journal of environmental radioactivity》2006,88(2):109-117
A 234U and 230Th determination method based on an extraction chromatographic separation on a flow injection system coupled to a quadruple ICP-MS was developed. Two-milliliter UTEVA (Eichrom Co.) cartridges were applied as separation tool and 236U and 229Th as spikes. Loading and washing steps were carried out in 3 M HNO3 solution and 0.05 M ammonium oxalate applied to elute both uranium and thorium. The method was applied initially to the IAEA-327 soil reference sample and NIST SRM 4357 ocean sediment reference material, with the obtained 234U and 230Th concentrations in agreement with the reference levels. Samples from a deep-sea sediment core (2450 m water depth) were analyzed and based on 230Th/234U dating, a mean sedimentation rate of 3.3 cm ky(-1) was calculated. Samples from two sediment layers were also dated by 14C-AMS and the observed ages agree with the 230Th/234U results. 相似文献
25.
Zooplankton responses to hypoxia: behavioral patterns and survival of three species of calanoid copepods 总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2
Seasonally recurrent and persistent hypoxic events in semi-enclosed coastal waters are characterized by bottom-water dissolved
oxygen (d.o.) concentrations of < 2.0 ml l−1. Shifts in the distribution patterns of zooplankters in association with these events have been documented, but the mechanisms
responsible for these shifts have not been investigated. This study assessed interspecific differences in responses to hypoxia
by several species of calanoid copepods common off Turkey Point, Florida, USA: Labidocera aestiva (Wheeler) (a summer/fall species), Acartia tonsa (Dana) (a ubiquitous year-round species), and Centropages hamatus (Lilljeborg) (a winter/spring species). Under conditions of moderate to severe hypoxia 24-h survival experiments were conducted
for adults and nauplii of these species from August 1994 to October 1995. Experiments on adults used a flow-through system
to maintain constant d.o. concentrations. Adults of A. tonsa showed no decline in survival with d.o. as low as 1.0 ml l−1, sharp declines in survival at d.o. = 0.9 to 0.6 ml l−1, and 100% mortality with d.o. = 0.5 ml l−1. Adults of L. aestiva and C. hamatus were more sensitive to oxygen depletion: both species experienced significant decreases in survival for d.o. = 1.0 ml l−1. Nauplii of L. aestiva and A. tonsa showed no significant mortality with d.o. = 1.1 to 1.5 ml␣l−1 and d.o. = 0.24 to 0.5 ml l−1, respectively. In addition, experiments investigating behavioral avoidance of moderate to severe hypoxia were carried out
for adults of all three species. None of the three species effectively avoided either severely hypoxic (d.o. < 0.5 ml l−1) or moderately hypoxic (d.o. ≈ 1.0 ml l−1) bottom layers in stratified columns. These results suggest that in␣nearshore areas where development of zones of d.o. < 1.0 ml
l−1 may be sudden, widespread, or unpredictable, patterns of reduced copepod abundance in bottom waters may be due primarily
to mortality rather than avoidance.
Received: 31 August 1996 / Accepted: 24 September 1996 相似文献
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Groundwater management and socio-economic responses 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
Jacob J. Burke Claude Sauveplane and Marcus Moench President 《Natural resources forum》1999,23(4):303-313
The socio-economic aspects of groundwater development and management are briefly examined and set against a background of highly technical management. The variability of socio-economic responses to groundwater and the problems of engaging large numbers of individual users are highlighted. The paper argues that social, institutional and political factors are the primary obstacles to sustainable management of the world's groundwater resources. 相似文献
28.
Ulrich Oberndorfer Peter Schmidt Marcus Wagner Andreas Ziegler 《Journal of Environmental Economics and Management》2013
This paper empirically analyzes the effect of the inclusion of German corporations in the Dow Jones STOXX Sustainability Index (DJSI STOXX) and the Dow Jones Sustainability World Index (DJSI World) on stock performance. In order to receive robust estimation results, we apply an (short-term) event study approach that is based on both a modern asset pricing model, namely the three-factor model according to Fama and French [24], and additionally a t-GARCH(1,1) model. Our empirical results suggest that stock markets may penalize the inclusion of a firm in sustainability stock indexes. This finding is mainly driven by a strongly negative effect of the inclusion in the DJSI World. In contrast, we do not find significant average cumulative abnormal returns for the inclusion in the DJSI STOXX. This suggests that the inclusion in a more visible sustainability stock index may have larger negative impacts. 相似文献
29.
Rodrigo W. Soria-Auza Michael Kessler Paola M. Barajas-Barbosa Marcus Lehnert Jürgen Böhner 《Ecological modelling》2010,221(8):1221-1229
The quality of climate models has largely been overlooked as a possible source of uncertainty that may affect the outcomes of species distribution models, especially in the tropics, where comparatively few climatic stations are available. We compared the geographical discrepancies and potential conservation implications of using two different climate models (Saga and Worldclim) in combination with the species modelling approach Maxent in Bolivia. We estimated ranges of selected bird and fern species biogeographically restricted to either humid montane forest of the northern Bolivian Andes or seasonal dry tropical forests (in the Andes and southern lowlands). Saga and Worldclim predicted roughly similar climate patterns of temperature that were significantly correlated. Precipitation layers of both climate models were also roughly similar, but showed important differences. Species ranges estimated with Worldclim and Saga likewise produced different results. Ranges of species endemic to humid montane forests estimated with Saga had higher AUC (Area under the curve) values than those estimated with Worldclim, which for example predicted the occurrence of humid montane forest bird species near Lake Titicaca, an area that is clearly unsuitable for these species. Likewise, Worldclim overpredicted the occurrence of fern and bird species in the lowlands of the Chapare region and well south of the Andean Elbow, where more seasonal biomes occur. By contrast, Saga predictions were coherent with the known distribution of humid montane forests in the northern Bolivian Andes. Estimated ranges of species endemic to seasonal dry tropical forests predicted with Saga and Worldclim were not statistically different in most cases. However, detailed comparisons revealed that Saga was able to distinguish fragments of seasonal dry tropical forests in rain-shadow valleys of the northern Bolivian Andes, whereas Worldclim was not. These differences highlight the neglected influence of climate layers on modelling results and the importance of using the most accurate climate data available when modelling species distributions. 相似文献
30.
Can Labor Out-Migration Reduce Firewood Consumption by Rural Households in Western Mountainous China
Abstract The relationship between out-migration of labor in the Qinling mountain area and households’ firewood consumption is explored. Migration and remittances reduce households’ firewood consumption due to increases in both income and opportunity cost of firewood collection. Previous studies have been equivocal because they ignored uncertainty in household economy, which is widespread in forest areas of less developed countries. This study provides additional insight by considering vulnerability and subjective assessment of poverty generated by unstable income and an uncertain future. We provide evidence that the amount of firewood consumed depends on income and opportunity cost of firewood collection, but also on a prudent consumption strategy, due to farmers’ subjective assessment of their future possible poverty. We also find out-migration of labor can reduce per capita firewood consumption but subjective poverty also acts against reduction of firewood consumption. 相似文献