Climate change impacts on a pine stand in Central Siberia

The objective of this paper is to analyse the impacts of climate change on a pine forest stand in Central Siberia (Zotino) to assess benefits and risks for such forests in the future. We use the regional statistical climate model STARS to develop a set of climate change scenarios assuming a temperature increase by mid-century of 1, 2, 3 and 4 K. The process-based forest growth model 4C is applied to a 200-year-old pine forest to analyse impacts on carbon and water balance as well as the risk of fire under these climate change scenarios. The climate scenarios indicate precipitation increases mainly during winter and decreases during summer with increasing temperature trend. They cause rising forest productivity up to about 20 % in spite of increasing respiration losses. At the same time, the water-use efficiency increases slightly from 2.0 g C l^?1 H₂O under current climate to 2.1 g C l^?1 H₂O under 4 K scenario indicating that higher water losses from increasing evapotranspiration do not appear to lead to water limitations for the productivity at this site. The simulated actual evaporation increases by up to 32 %, but the climatic water balance decreases by up to 20 % with increasing temperature trend. In contrast, the risk of fire indicated by the Nesterov index clearly increases. Our analysis confirms increasing productivity of the boreal pine stand but also highlights increasing drought stress and risks from abiotic disturbances which could cancel out productivity gains.     

Surface ozone comparison conducted in two rural areas in central-southern Spain

Purpose  

The purpose of this work is to contribute to the understanding of the photochemical air pollution analysing the levels and temporal variations of surface ozone in two rural areas situated in central-southern Spain.     

Non-timber forest product dependency in the Central Himalayan foot hills

Rural households throughout the Himalayas are regarded as dependent on non-timber forest products (NTFPs), but very few studies have quantified this dependency. This case study, undertaken in two villages in the Central Himalayan foot hills in Nepal, documents the absolute and relative importance of commercial NTFPs to rural household economies. Data were collected in a one-year period and included interviews with 250 households using a semi-structured questionnaire and monthly interviews with four sub-local NTFP traders, two local traders and two central wholesalers. The conservative estimate of NTFP-derived cash income showed this to be a cornerstone in poorer household livelihood strategies and thus in poverty prevention. An annual average of 578 kg of commercial NTFPs was collected in the wild per household, providing poorer households with a cash income share of 44–78%. Better off households are not NTFP dependent but rely on income from crop production and livestock. Based on a net marketing margin analysis, showing that harvesters capture a large share of the Indian wholesaler price, it is argued that there is scope for pursuing NTFP-based strategies for poverty reduction through leasehold forestry and agroforestry. Both these options are compatible with conserving forest cover and forest corridor functions and may thus present a win–win scenario for livelihood improvement and conservation.     

Understanding livelihood strategy-poverty links: empirical evidence from central highlands of Ethiopia

The aim of this paper is to disclose livelihood strategy-poverty links and gain a better understanding by developing typologies of rural households. Based on qualitative and quantitative data, we group households into different typologies and explore interactions. We identified six main agronomic strategies, four dominant livelihood diversification strategies, and income quartiles (proxies for poverty) using cluster and principal component factor analysis. We found that nearly 82% of the surveyed farmers in the study area belong to the bottom income quartiles while about 18% are on the upper quartiles. Households in the bottom income quartiles engaged in casual off-farm work and cereal-dominated livelihood strategies that tend to pursue subsistence farming by growing cereals and oil crops. Contrarily, farmers in the upper income quartiles adapted intensive agronomic strategies by integrating root crops, legumes, and vegetables with livestock. This was largely attributed to access to key livelihood assets such as land, livestock, education, and institutional support in which the upper quartiles were more endowed. Improving availability of the key assets for the bottom income quartiles might be a way out of poverty and ensuring sustainable development. It is crucial to recognize local-level heterogeneities of rural households when targeting development interventions.     

Strategic environmental assessment application for sustainable transport-related air quality policies: a case study in Hanoi City,Vietnam

Recognition has grown among policy-makers that early in the decision-making process, there is a need for an environmental assessment of the effects of the policy, plan, and program (PPP) and their alternatives. Strategic environmental assessment (SEA) is widely recognized as a supporting tool that systematically integrates environmental aspects into strategic decision-making processes, thereby contributing to sustainable development. In this study, SEA was applied for an integrated assessment of environmental, social, and economic impacts of a wide range of scenarios for transport-related air quality policies to help decision-makers in identifying the most sustainable scenario with the purpose of reducing carbon monoxide (CO) concentrations from transport emissions in Hanoi City, Vietnam. In conducting SEA process, the urban air dispersion model MUAIR was used as a quantitative tool in prediction of CO concentrations. To evaluate the predicted impacts of scenarios, the SEA objectives concerning sustainability and the corresponding sustainable indicators were identified. Based on the likely significant predicted impacts on landscape, biodiversity, and health benefits, mitigation measures were proposed. These included planning in infrastructure development and implementation of public education campaign. The results of predicted and evaluated impacts of scenarios as well as proposed mitigation measures were taken into account for supporting sound decision-making that is consistent with the principles of sustainable development. Considering sustainable impacts of the scenarios, the SEA result clearly indicates that a combination of policy for public transport development and policy for installation of oxidation catalytic converter for motorcycles is the most sustainable scenario for reducing CO concentrations from transport emissions.     

Converging impact assessment discourses for sustainable development: the case of Flanders,Belgium

The scientific field of impact assessment encompasses various ‘traditions’, each reflecting a set of particular policy objectives. This paper analyses two types of impact assessment. Regulatory impact analysis focuses on better regulation and competitiveness, while sustainability assessment fosters a holistic approach centred on the values of sustainable development. Through an analysis of the political discourses at the level of the European Union and at the sub-national level of the Flemish Region of Belgium, elements of convergence between the better regulation and sustainable development discourse are identified. The paper analyses how integrated impact assessment can be an integrative tool that allows to merge both discourses and to implement them in day-to-day decision-making. The potential of the existing Flemish regulatory impact analysis framework to be the starting point of an integrated assessment scheme for sustainable development is advocated and motivated.     

Impact changes of climatic extremes on arable farming in the north of the Netherlands

Agriculture is vulnerable to climate change in multiple ways. Here, we use the northern region of the Netherlands as a case study to explore how risk assessments for climate change impacts on crop production can address multiple vulnerabilities. We present a methodology, which we call agro climate calendar (ACC) that (i) includes potential yield losses, as well as loss of product quality, and (ii) assesses the risks of a variety of climate factors including weather extremes and the emergence and abundance of pests and diseases. Climate factors are defined for two time slices: 1990 (1976–2005) and 2040 (2026–2055); the frequency of occurrence of the factors is compared for the two periods, and the resulting frequency shifts are presented in a crop calendar on a monthly basis. This yields an indication of the magnitude and direction of changes in climatic conditions that can lead to damage by extreme events and pests and diseases. We present results for the two most important crops in the region, seed potato, and winter wheat. The results provide a good overview of risks from climate factors, and the most important threats and opportunities are identified. This semi-quantitative approach is firmly rooted in farm management, which is the level where operational and strategic decisions are made. Thus, the approach is well suited to assist local stakeholders such as farmers and policy makers to explore farm-level adaptation. This work is complementary to previous modeling work that focused mainly on the relation between mean climate change factors (i.e., temperature) and crop yield.     

Moving beyond the linear model of expertise? IPCC and the test of adaptation

In early 2009, few would have expected that the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) would come under such massive attack. The IPCC had enjoyed a pristine reputation and had even advanced to become a role model for biodiversity and food security assessments (Loreau et al. 2006; Watson 2005). However, public trust and, with it, the organization’s credibility eroded dramatically after November 2009 with the events that became known as ‘climategate’. This article seeks to contribute to current debates about how to reform the IPCC. It argues that there are major flaws in the design of the IPCC which are rooted in the linear model of expertise and which are helping to stoke the backlash against the IPCC. The article analyzes the ways in which the IPCC’s activities conform to the linear model of expertise and considers the consequences of this for integrating adaptation into the IPCC assessments. It explains why adaptation played only a marginal role up until the IPCC Third Assessment Report. It then demonstrates why the use of the linear model of expertise constrains the scientific and political debate about adaptation and leads to proxy debates about scientific evidence, which result in depoliticizing the politics of adaptation and politicizing science. Finally, the article calls for the debate to be opened up to accommodate alternatives that are both politically more feasible and at the same time more appropriate to the specific needs of adaptation policies at different levels of decision-making.     

Structuring sustainability science

It is urgent in science and society to address climate change and other sustainability challenges such as biodiversity loss, deforestation, depletion of marine fish stocks, global ill-health, land degradation, land use change and water scarcity. Sustainability science (SS) is an attempt to bridge the natural and social sciences for seeking creative solutions to these complex challenges. In this article, we propose a research agenda that advances the methodological and theoretical understanding of what SS can be, how it can be pursued and what it can contribute. The key focus is on knowledge structuring. For that purpose, we designed a generic research platform organised as a three-dimensional matrix comprising three components: core themes (scientific understanding, sustainability goals, sustainability pathways); cross-cutting critical and problem-solving approaches; and any combination of the sustainability challenges above. As an example, we insert four sustainability challenges into the matrix (biodiversity loss, climate change, land use changes, water scarcity). Based on the matrix with the four challenges, we discuss three issues for advancing theory and methodology in SS: how new synergies across natural and social sciences can be created; how integrated theories for understanding and responding to complex sustainability issues can be developed; and how theories and concepts in economics, gender studies, geography, political science and sociology can be applied in SS. The generic research platform serves to structure and create new knowledge in SS and is a tool for exploring any set of sustainability challenges. The combined critical and problem-solving approach is essential.     

The Potential Role for Management of U.S. Public Lands in Greenhouse Gas Mitigation and Climate Policy

Management of forests, rangelands, and wetlands on public lands, including the restoration of degraded lands, has the potential to increase carbon sequestration or reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions beyond what is occurring today. In this paper we discuss several policy options for increasing GHG mitigation on public lands. These range from an extension of current policy by generating supplemental mitigation on public lands in an effort to meet national emissions reduction goals, to full participation in an offsets market by allowing GHG mitigation on public lands to be sold as offsets either by the overseeing agency or by private contractors. To help place these policy options in context, we briefly review the literature on GHG mitigation and public lands to examine the potential for enhanced mitigation on federal and state public lands in the United States. This potential will be tempered by consideration of the tradeoffs with other uses of public lands, the needs for climate change adaptation, and the effects on other ecosystem services.