Minimax Regret Analysis for Municipal Solid Waste Management: An Interval-Stochastic Programming Approach

Abstract

In this study, an interval minimax regret programming (IMMRP) method is developed for the planning of municipal solid waste (MSW) management under uncertainty. It improves on the existing interval programming and minimax regret analysis methods by allowing uncertainties presented as both intervals and random variables to be effectively communicated into the optimization process. The IMMRP can account for economic consequences under all possible scenarios without any assumption on their probabilities. The developed method is applied to a case study of long-term MSW management planning under uncertainty. Multiple scenarios associated with different cost and risk levels are analyzed. Reasonable solutions are generated, demonstrating complex tradeoffs among system cost, regret level, and system-failure risk. The method can also facilitate examination of the difference between the cost incurred with identified strategy and the least cost under an ideal condition. The results can help determine desired plans and policies for waste management under a variety of uncertainties.     

Near-source air quality impacts of large olefin flares

Large petrochemical flares, common in the Houston Ship Channel (the Ship Channel) and other industrialized areas in the Gulf of Mexico region, emit hundreds to thousands of pounds per hour of highly reactive volatile organic compounds (HRVOCs). We employed fine horizontal resolution (200 m?×?200 m) in a three-dimensional (3D) Eulerian chemical transport model to simulate two historical Ship Channel flares. The model reasonably reproduced the observed ozone rise at the nearest monitoring stations downwind of the flares. The larger of the two flares had an olefin emission rate exceeding 1400 lb/hr. In this case, the model simulated a rate of increase in peak ozone greater than 40 ppb/hr over a 12 km?×?12 km horizontal domain without any unusual meteorological conditions. In this larger flare, formaldehyde emissions typically neglected in official inventories enhanced peak ozone by as much as 16 ppb and contributed over 10 ppb to ambient formaldehyde up to ～8 km downwind of the flare. The intense horizontal gradients in large flare plumes cannot be simulated by coarse models typically used to demonstrate ozone attainment. Moreover, even the relatively dense monitoring network in the Ship Channel may not be able to detect many transient high ozone events (THOEs) caused by industrial flare emissions in the absence of stagnant air recirculation or stalled sea breeze fronts, even though such conditions are unnecessary for the occurrence of THOEs.

Implications: Flare minimization may be an important strategy to attain the U.S. federal ozone standard in industrialized areas, and to avoid inordinate exposure to formaldehyde in neighborhoods surrounding petrochemical facilities. Moreover, air quality monitoring networks, emission inventories, and chemical transport models with higher spatial and temporal resolution and more refined speciation of HRVOCs are needed to better account for the near-source air quality impacts of large olefin flares.     

A Monte-Carlo Simulation of the Ozone Attainment Process

A Monte-Carlo simulation of the approach to attainment of the National Ambient Air Quality Standard for ozone has been performed for the California Bay Area Air Quality Management District. Four compliance tests together with different design values are used in the simulation. The results show that the present compliance test requiring a zero-percent chance of violation and the design value represented by the fourth highest value in three years makes both the standard and the control requirement much more stringent than generally assumed. In fact, to attain the standard on a long-term basis would require annual means and annual second-highest values that are close to those of the rural background ozone. The simulation also shows that by taking into account the fluctuation of ozone concentrations in the compliance test, such as a t test, and by using a design value consistent with the test, a standard defined in terms of the three-year mean of the annual second-highest values not only is more consistent with the currently- perceived stringency of the present standard, but may also be attainable with a more reasonable control requirement.     

Chemical Dynamics of Clouds at Mt. Mitchell,North Carolina

The role of clouds as the primary pathway for deposition of air pollutants into ecosystems has recently acquired much attention. Moreover, the acidity of clouds is highly variable over short periods of time. Cloud water collections were made at Mt. Mitchell State Park, North Carolina, using a real-time cloud and rain acidity/ conductivity (CRAC) analyzer during May to September 1987, 1988 and 1989 in an effort to explore extremes of chemical exposure. On the average, the mountain peak was exposed to cloud episodes about 70 percent of experimental days. The lowest pH of cloud water in nearly real-time (～10 min.) samples was 2.4, while that in hourly integrated samples was 2.6. The cloud pH during short cloud events (mean pH 3.1), whjch results from the orographic lifting mechanism, was lower than that during long cloud events (mean pH 3.5), which are associated with mesoscale or synoptic atmospheric disturbances. On the average, the pH values in nonprecipitating cloud events were about 0.4 pH unit lower than those in precipitating cloud events. Sulfate, nitrate, ammonium and hydrogen ions were found to be the major constituents of cloud water, and these accounted for -90 percent of the ionic concentration. Total ionic concentrations were found to be much higher in non-precipitating clouds (670-3,010 μeq/L) than those in precipitating clouds (220-370 μeq/L). At low acidity, ionic balance is sometimes not obtained. It is suggested that organic acids may provide this balance.

The profile of cloud water ionic concentration versus time was frequently observed to show decrease at the beginning and rising toward the end during short cloud events. Before the dissipation of clouds, a decrease in cloud water pH and an increase in ionic concentration were found. At the same time, temperature and solar radiation increased, and relative humidity and microphysical parameters (liquid water content, average droplet size, and droplet concentration) decreased. These observations suggest that evaporative dissipation of cloud droplets leads to acidification of cloud water. Mean pH of cloud water was 3.4 when the prevailing wind was from the northwest direction, and it was 3.9 when the wind was from the west direction. The effects of variations in cloud liquid water content have been separated from variations in pre-cloud pollutant concentrations to determine the relationship between source intensity and cloud water concentrations.     

Estimating the concentration of indoor particles of outdoor origin: A review

Recent toxicological results highlight the importance of separating exposure to indoor- and outdoor-generated particles, due to their different physicochemical and toxicological properties. In this framework, a number of studies have attempted to estimate the relative contribution of particles of indoor and outdoor origins to indoor concentrations, using either statistical analysis of indoor and outdoor concentration time-series or mass balance equations. The aim of this work is to review and compare the methodologies developed in order to determine the ambient particle infiltration factor (F _INF) (i.e., the fraction of ambient particles that enter indoors and remains suspended). The different approaches are grouped into four categories according to their methodological principles: (1) steady-state assumption using the steady-state form of the mass balance equation; (2) dynamic solution of the mass balance equation using complex statistical techniques; (3) experimental studies using conditions that simplify model calculations (e.g., decreasing the number of unknowns); and (4) infiltration surrogates using a particulate matter (PM) constituent with no indoor sources to act as surrogate of indoor PM of outdoor origin. Examination of the various methodologies and results reveals that estimating infiltration parameters is still challenging. The main difficulty lies in the separate calculation of penetration efficiency (P) and deposition rate (k). The values for these two parameters that are reported in the literature vary significantly. Deposition rate presents the widest range of values, both between studies and size fractions. Penetration efficiency seems to be more accurately calculated through the application of dynamic models. Overall, estimates of the infiltration factor generated using dynamic models and infiltration surrogates show good agreement. This is a strong argument in favor of the latter methodology, which is simple and easy to apply when chemical speciation data are available.

Implications: ?Taking into account that increased health risks may be related with ambient particles, a reliable estimation of the main parameters governing ambient particle infiltration indoors may assist towards the development of appropriate regulation and control measures, targeted to specific sources/factors contributing to increased exposures. The overall study of the methodological approaches estimating particle infiltration indoors suggests that dynamic models provide a more complete and realistic picture of ambient particle infiltration indoors, whereas the use of specific PM constituents to act as surrogates of indoor particles of outdoor origin seems also a promising new methodology.     

Effects of pen bedding and feeding high crude protein diets on manure composition and greenhouse gas emissions from a feedlot pen surface

Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from concentrated animal feeding operations vary by stage of production and management practices. The objective of this research was to study the effect of two dietary crude protein levels (12 and 16%) fed to beef steers in pens with or without corn stover bedding. Manure characteristics and GHG emissions were measured from feedlot pen surfaces. Sixteen equal-sized feedlot pens (19?×?23 m) were used. Eight were bedded approximately twice a week with corn stover and the remaining eight feedlot pens were not bedded. Angus steers (n = 138) were blocked by live weights (lighter and heavier) with 7 to 10 animals per pen. The trial was a 2?×?2 factorial design with factors of two protein levels and two bedding types (bedding vs. non bedding), with four replicates. The study was conducted from June through September and consisted of four ?28-day periods. Manure from each pen was scrapped once every 28 days and composite manure samples from each pen were collected. Air samples from pen surfaces were sampled in Tedlar bags using a Vac-U-Chamber coupled with a portable wind tunnel and analyzed with a greenhouse gas gas chromatograph within 24 hr of sampling. The manure samples were analyzed for crude protein (CP), total nitrogen (TN), ammonia (NH₃), total volatile fatty acid (TVFA), total carbon (TC), total phosphorus (TP), and potassium (K). The air samples were analyzed for methane (CH₄), carbon dioxide (CO₂), and nitrous oxide (N₂O) concentrations. The concentration of TN was significantly higher (p < 0.05) in manure from pens with cattle fed the high protein diets. The volatile fatty acids (VFAs) such as acetic, propionic, isobutyric, butyric, isovaleric, and valeric acids concentrations were similar across both treatments. There were no significant differences in pen surface GHG emissions across manure management and dietary crude protein levels.

Implications: Livestock manure produces odor and emits GHGs (CO₂, CH₄, and N₂O) at different stages of production and management practices that have significant environmental concerns. Thus, it is important to measure GHG contributions from different sources and develop appropriate mitigation strategies for minimizing GHG contribution from livestock production facilities. Two dietary protein levels (12 and 16%) fed to beef steers in pens with or without corn stover bedding were studied. The results indicated that dietary protein levels and bedding vs. no bedding had very little effect on GHG emissions and manure composition under open feedlot conditions in North Dakota climatic conditions and management practices.     

Identification of Swamp Deer (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Cervus duvauceli duvauceli</Emphasis> Cuvier) Potential Habitat in Jhilmil Jheel Conservation Reserve,Uttarakhand, India Using Multi-Criteria Analysis

The present study aims to identify the potential habitat for swamp deer (Cervus duvauceli duvauceli Cuvier) in Jhilmil Jheel Conservation Reserve in the Uttarakhand province of India using multi-criteria analysis. The study area represents one of the last remnant habitats of the flagship species, the swamp deer in Uttarakhand, which is considered as vulnerable. The study showed that only 6.08% of the study area (225 km²) was highly suitable to suitable for the swamp deer. An area of 135.52 km² (60.23%) turned out to be moderately suitable. Within the officially designated Conservation Reserve (area 37.84 km²), 10.91% (4.13 km²) area was found highly suitable to suitable, while 74.19% (28.07 km²) happens to be moderately suitable. Only 14 km² area, which was found as suitable habitat for swamp deer falls short of the space required by a population of 134 animals. The problem could be mitigated if the agricultural land (2.47 km²) adjacent to the Jhilmil Jheel is brought under the Reserve management. This would provide additional area to meet the fodder requirement. The study brings out a particularly grim situation with limited options for conservation and management of the swamp deer in the Indo-Gangetic plains. It also emphasizes the role of geospatial techniques in quick appraisal of habitat attributes and identification of potential sites for protected areas.     

Lidar quantification of bank erosion in Blue Earth County, Minnesota

Sediment and phosphorus (P) transport from the Minnesota River Basin to Lake Pepin on the upper Mississippi River has garnered much attention in recent years. However, there is lack of data on the extent of sediment and P contributions from riverbanks vis-à-vis uplands and ravines. Using two light detection and ranging (lidar) data sets taken in 2005 and 2009, a study was undertaken to quantify sediment and associated P losses from riverbanks in Blue Earth County, Minnesota. Volume change in river valleys as a result of bank erosion amounted to 1.71 million m over 4 yr. Volume change closely followed the trend: the Blue Earth River > the Minnesota River at the county's northern edge > the Le Sueur River > the Maple River > the Watonwan River > the Big Cobb River > Perch Creek > Little Cobb River. Using fine sediment content (silt + clay) and bulk density of 37 bank samples representing three parent materials, we estimate bank erosion contributions of 48 to 79% of the measured total suspended solids at the mouth of the Blue Earth and the Le Sueur rivers. Corresponding soluble P and total P contributions ranged from 0.13 to 0.20% and 40 to 49%, respectively. Although tall banks (>3 m high) accounted for 33% of the total length and 63% of the total area, they accounted for 75% of the volume change in river valleys. We conclude that multitemporal lidar data sets are useful in estimating bank erosion and associated P contributions over large scales, and for riverbanks that are not readily accessible for conventional surveying equipment.     

Low-disturbance manure incorporation effects on ammonia and nitrate loss

Low-disturbance manure application methods can provide the benefits of manure incorporation, including reducing ammonia (NH3) emissions, in production systems where tillage is not possible. However, incorporation can exacerbate nitrate (NO3?) leaching. We sought to assess the trade-offs in NH3 and NO3? losses caused by alternative manure application methods. Dairy slurry (2006-2007) and liquid swine manure (2008-2009) were applied to no-till corn by (i) shallow (<10 cm) disk injection, (ii) surface banding with soil aeration, (iii) broadcasting, and (iv) broadcasting with tillage incorporation. Ammonia emissions were monitored for 72 h after application using ventilated chambers and passive diffusion samplers, and NO3? leaching to 80 cm was monitored with buried column lysimeters. The greatest NH3 emissions occurred with broadcasting (35-63 kg NH3-N ha?), and the lowest emissions were from unamended soil (<1 kg NH-N ha?1). Injection decreased NH-N emissions by 91 to 99% compared with broadcasting and resulted in lower emissions than tillage incorporation 1 h after broadcasting. Ammonia-nitrogen emissions from banding manure with aeration were inconsistent between years, averaging 0 to 71% that of broadcasting. Annual NO3? leaching losses were small (<25 kg NO3-N ha?1) and similar between treatments, except for the first winter when NO3? leaching was fivefold greater with injection. Because NO3? leaching with injection was substantially lower over subsequent seasons, we hypothesize that the elevated losses during the first winter were through preferential flow paths inadvertently created during lysimeter installation. Overall, shallow disk injection yielded the lowest NH3 emissions without consistently increasing NO3? leaching, whereas manure banding with soil aeration conserved inconsistent amounts of N.     

Transport and retention of Cryptosporidium parvum oocysts in sandy soils

A series of miscible-displacement experiments was conducted to examine the retention and transport behavior of oocysts in natural porous media. Three soils and a model sand were used that differed in physical and geochemical properties. Transport behavior was examined under various treatment conditions to help evaluate retention mechanisms. Significant retention of oocysts was observed for all media despite the fact that conditions were unfavorable for physicochemical interactions with respect to DLVO theory. The magnitude of retention was not influenced significantly by alterations in solution chemistry (reduction in ionic strength) or soil surface properties (removal of soil organic matter and metal oxides). On the basis of the observed results, it appears that retention by secondary energy minima or geochemical microdomains was minimal for these systems. The porous media used for the experiments exhibited large magnitudes of surface roughness, and it is suggested that this surface roughness contributed significantly to oocyst retention.