Assessing high-impact spots of climate change: spatial yield simulations with Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT) model

Drybeans (Phaseolus vulgaris L.) are an important subsistence crop in Central America. Future climate change may threaten drybean production and jeopardize smallholder farmers’ food security. We estimated yield changes in drybeans due to changing climate in these countries using downscaled data from global circulation models (GCMs) in El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, and Nicaragua. We generated daily weather data, which we used in the Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT) drybean submodel. We compared different cultivars, soils, and fertilizer options in three planting seasons. We analyzed the simulated yields to spatially classify high-impact spots of climate change across the four countries. The results show a corridor of reduced yields from Lake Nicaragua to central Honduras (10–38 % decrease). Yields increased in the Guatemalan highlands, towards the Atlantic coast, and in southern Nicaragua (10–41 % increase). Some farmers will be able to adapt to climate change, but others will have to change crops, which will require external support. Research institutions will need to devise technologies that allow farmers to adapt and provide policy makers with feasible strategies to implement them.     

From site-level to regional adaptation planning for tropical commodities: cocoa in West Africa

The production of tropical agricultural commodities, such as cocoa (Theobroma cacao) and coffee (Coffea spp.), the countries and communities engaged in it, and the industries dependent on these commodities, are vulnerable to climate change. This is especially so where a large percentage of the global supply is grown in a single geographical region. Fortunately, there is often considerable spatial heterogeneity in the vulnerability to climate change within affected regions, implying that local production losses could be compensated through intensification and expansion of production elsewhere. However, this requires that site-level actions are integrated into a regional approach to climate change adaptation. We discuss here such a regional approach for cocoa in West Africa, where 70 % of global cocoa supply originates. On the basis of a statistical model of relative climatic suitability calibrated on West African cocoa farming areas and average climate projections for the 2030s and 2050s of, respectively, 15 and 19 Global Circulation Models, we divide the region into three adaptation zones: (i) a little affected zone permitting intensification and/or expansion of cocoa farming; (ii) a moderately affected zone requiring diversification and agronomic adjustments of farming practices; and (iii) a severely affected zone with need for progressive crop change. We argue that for tropical agricultural commodities, larger-scale adaptation planning that attempts to balance production trends across countries and regions could help reduce negative impacts of climate change on regional economies and global commodity supplies, despite the institutional challenges that this integration may pose.     

Do lab-derived distribution coefficient values of pesticides match distribution coefficient values determined from column and field-scale experiments? A critical analysis of relevant literature

In this study, we analyzed sorption parameters for pesticides that were derived from batch and column or batch and field experiments. The batch experiments analyzed in this study were run with the same pesticide and soil as in the column and field experiments. We analyzed the relationship between the pore water velocity of the column and field experiments, solute residence times, and sorption parameters, such as the organic carbon normalized distribution coefficient ( ) and the mass exchange coefficient in kinetic models, as well as the predictability of sorption parameters from basic soil properties. The batch/column analysis included 38 studies with a total of 139 observations. The batch/field analysis included five studies, resulting in a dataset of 24 observations. For the batch/column data, power law relationships between pore water velocity, residence time, and sorption constants were derived. The unexplained variability in these equations was reduced, taking into account the saturation status and the packing status (disturbed-undisturbed) of the soil sample. A new regression equation was derived that allows estimating the values derived from column experiments using organic matter and bulk density with an value of 0.56. Regression analysis of the batch/column data showed that the relationship between batch- and column-derived values depends on the saturation status and packing of the soil column. Analysis of the batch/field data showed that as the batch-derived value becomes larger, field-derived values tend to be lower than the corresponding batch-derived values, and vice versa. The present dataset also showed that the variability in the ratio of batch- to column-derived value increases with increasing pore water velocity, with a maximum value approaching 3.5.     

Plant invasions, generalist herbivores, and novel defense weapons

One commonly accepted mechanism for biological invasions is that species, after introduction to a new region, leave behind their natural enemies and therefore increase in distribution and abundance. However, which enemies are escaped remains unclear. Escape from specialist invertebrate herbivores has been examined in detail, but despite the profound effects of generalist herbivores in natural communities their potential to control invasive species is poorly understood. We carried out parallel laboratory feeding bioassays with generalist invertebrate herbivores from the native (Europe) and from the introduced (North America) range using native and nonnative tetraploid populations of the invasive spotted knapweed, Centaurea stoebe. We found that the growth of North American generalist herbivores was far lower when feeding on C. stoebe than the growth of European generalists. In contrast, North American and European generalists grew equally well on European and North American tetraploid C. stoebe plants, lending no support for an evolutionary change in resistance of North American tetraploid C. stoebe populations against generalist herbivores. These results suggest that biogeographical differences in the response of generalist herbivores to novel plant species have the potential to affect plant invasions.     

Orchids do not pay costs at emergence for prolonged dormancy

In plants, prolonged dormancy is often considered a response to resource depletion or environmental stress that comes at a fitness cost. However, apparent costs of dormancy could reflect the state in which plants entered dormancy, rather than effects of dormancy per se. We tested this hypothesis for a terrestrial orchid, Epipactis atrorubens, by analyzing differences in vital rates of dormant and emergent plants using generalized linear mixed models, applied to eight years of demographic data. Dormant E. atrorubens plants did not form one homogeneous stage class. Instead, the vital rates of dormant plants mirrored performance of plants in their life stage before dormancy. Plants emerging from dormancy were slightly (albeit only marginally statistically significantly) larger than plants transitioning from the matching aboveground stage class, especially for smaller and younger stage classes. Because small plants were most likely to go dormant, plants emerging from dormancy were also smaller than average, if one were to compare all previously dormant plants to all previously emergent plants. Therefore, misclassifying all dormant plants into a single stage class changes whether we view dormancy as intrinsically costly, in terms of future performance upon emergence. We suggest that prolonged dormancy may be a form of phenotypic plasticity in which plants distribute their performance and reproductive effort through time, rather than a simple stress response.     

UV-radiation versus grazing pressure: long-term floating of kelp rafts (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Macrocystis pyrifera</Emphasis>) is facilitated by efficient photoacclimation but undermined by grazing losses

Large quantities of floating macroalgae are traveling in coastal waters of the SE Pacific and in other temperate climate zones. While afloat, these algae are potentially exposed to full solar radiation, including UVA and UVB, which can have profound effects on their physiological and growth performance. Latitudinal variations in UV-radiation (UVR) are hypothesized to affect floating algae differently with higher impacts at low latitudes than at high latitudes. In addition, UVR together with grazing might accelerate the demise of floating kelps. This hypothesis was tested with outdoor laboratory experiments in which sporophytes of the giant kelp Macrocystis pyrifera (L.) C. Agardh were exposed to a combination of different UVR regimes (PAR only, PAR + UV) and grazing at three sites along the Chilean coast (20°S, 30°S, and 40°S). A latitudinal trend in irradiance was detected with increasing values from 40°S to 20°S. Surprisingly, floating M. pyrifera responded with a high acclimation potential within this latitudinal UVR gradient. At 20°S, floating kelps were slightly sensitive to UVR, which was reflected in reduced blade growth. At 30°S, physiological responses were hardly affected by the prevailing irradiance but sporophyte growth and thus persistence mainly depended on the presence or absence of amphipod grazers. At high latitudes, grazing had only minor impacts on algal biomass and blade growth, and kelps thrived well under all tested environmental conditions. Overall, our results reveal that floating M. pyrifera was only slightly affected by UVR and that sporophytes can efficiently acclimate over a latitudinal UVR gradient that spans from 20°S to 40°S. Given this high acclimation potential, we suggest that these (and possibly other) positively buoyant algae are important dispersal agents over a wide range of temperate latitude conditions.     

Occurrence of organochlorine pesticides in indoor dust

Organochlorine pesticides are present in the environment and suspected of causing serious health effects. Diet has been the main exposure source, but indoor source release is gaining focus. Within a monitoring study of polychlorinated biphenyls of Danish buildings built during the 1960s and 1970s, we coincidently determined extreme levels of dichlorodiphenyltrichloroethane (DDT) levels in two of ten random samples. This raises concern and further large scale investigations are warranted to confirm this.     

Kinetics and reversibility of micropollutant sorption in sludge

The fate of micropollutants throughout wastewater treatment systems is highly dependent on their sorption interactions with sludge matter. In this study, both the sorption and desorption kinetics of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) in activated sludge were shown to be very rapid in comparison to biodegradation kinetics. It was concluded that PAH transfer does not limit their biodegradation and that their fate is governed by the sorption/desorption equilibrium state. The effect of contact time between sludge and PAHs was also investigated. It was shown that aging did not influence the sorption/desorption equilibrium although PAH losses during aging suggest that sequestration phenomena had occurred. This implies that for PAH sorption assessment within treatment processes there is no need to include a contact time dimension. As a consequence, thanks to an innovative approach taking into account sorption equilibria and sequestration, this work has demonstrated that studies in the literature which, in main, deal with micropollutant sorption in sewage sludge with only a short contact time can be extrapolated to real systems in which sorption, desorption and aging occur.     

Economic Analysis of Summer Fallow Management to Reduce Take-All Disease and N Leaching in a Wheat Crop Rotation

This paper addresses the question of summer cover-crop adoption by farmers in presence of a risk of yield loss due to take-all disease and climate variability. To analyze the public incentives needed to encourage farmers to adopt summer cover crops as a means of reducing N leaching, we combine outputs from an economic, an epidemiological and an agronomic model. The economic model is a simple model of choice under risk. The farmer is assumed to choose among a range of summer fallow managements and input uses on the basis of the expected utility criterion (HARA assumption) in presence of both climate and take-all risks. The epidemiological model proposed by Ennaïfar et al. (Eur J Plant Pathol 118:127–143, 2007) is used to determine the impact of take all on yields and N uptake. The crop-soil model (STICS) is used to compute yield developments and N leaching under various management options and climatic conditions. The input parameters are chosen to match the conditions prevailing in Grignon, located in the main wheat-growing area in France. Eight management systems are examined: four summer fallow managements: ‘wheat volunteers’ (WV), ‘bare soil’ (BS), ‘early mustard’, ‘late mustard’, and two input intensities. We show that the optimal systems are BS (WV) when the take-all risk is (not) taken into account by agents. We then compute the minimum payment to each system such that it emerges in the optimum. We thus derive the required amounts of transfer needed to trigger catch-crop adoption. The results of the Monte Carlo sensitivity analysis show that the ranking of management systems is robust over a wide range of input parameters.