Assessing health impacts in complex eco-epidemiological settings in the humid tropics: Modular baseline health surveys

The quantitative assessment of health impacts has been identified as a crucial feature for realising the full potential of health impact assessment (HIA). In settings where demographic and health data are notoriously scarce, but there is a broad range of ascertainable ecological, environmental, epidemiological and socioeconomic information, a diverse toolkit of data collection strategies becomes relevant for the mainly small-area impacts of interest. We present a modular, cross-sectional baseline health survey study design, which has been developed for HIA of industrial development projects in the humid tropics. The modular nature of our toolkit allows our methodology to be readily adapted to the prevailing eco-epidemiological characteristics of a given project setting. Central to our design is a broad set of key performance indicators, covering a multiplicity of health outcomes and determinants at different levels and scales. We present experience and key findings from our modular baseline health survey methodology employed in 14 selected sentinel sites within an iron ore mining project in the Republic of Guinea. We argue that our methodology is a generic example of rapid evidence assembly in difficult-to-reach localities, where improvement of the predictive validity of the assessment and establishment of a benchmark for longitudinal monitoring of project impacts and mitigation efforts is needed.     

Statistical Simulation to Estimate Uncertain Behavioral Parameters of Hybrid Energy-Economy Models

In energy-economy modeling, new hybrid models attempt to combine the technological explicitness of bottom-up models with the macroeconomic feedbacks and statistically estimated behavioral parameters of top-down models. However, statistical estimation of behavioral parameters (portraying firm and household technology choices) with such models is challenged by the number of uncertain variables and the lack of historical data on technologies in terms of capital costs, operating costs, and market shares. Multiple combinations of parameter values might equally explain past technology choices. This paper reports on the application of a Bayesian statistical simulation approach for estimating the most likely values for these key behavioral parameters in order to best explain past technology choices and then simulate policies to influence future technology choices. The method included (1) data collection of key technology market shares, capital costs, and operating costs over the past; (2) backcasting a hybrid energy-economy model over a historical time period; and (3) the application of Markov chain Monte Carlo statistical simulation using the Metropolis–Hastings algorithm as a tool for estimating distributions for key parameters in the model. The results provide a means of indicating the uncertainty bounds around key behavioral parameters when generating forecasts of the effect of certain policies. However, the results also indicate that this approach may have limited applicability, given that future available technologies may differ substantially from past technologies and that it is difficult to separate the effects of parameter uncertainty from model structure uncertainty.     

Preparation, certification and interlaboratory analysis of workplace air filters spiked with high-fired beryllium oxide

Occupational sampling and analysis for multiple elements is generally approached using various approved methods from authoritative government sources such as the National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health (NIOSH), the Occupational Safety and Health Administration (OSHA) and the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), as well as consensus standards bodies such as ASTM International. The constituents of a sample can exist as unidentified compounds requiring sample preparation to be chosen appropriately, as in the case of beryllium in the form of beryllium oxide (BeO). An interlaboratory study was performed to collect analytical data from volunteer laboratories to examine the effectiveness of methods currently in use for preparation and analysis of samples containing calcined BeO powder. NIST SRM(?) 1877 high-fired BeO powder (1100 to 1200 °C calcining temperature; count median primary particle diameter 0.12 μm) was used to spike air filter media as a representative form of beryllium particulate matter present in workplace sampling that is known to be resistant to dissolution. The BeO powder standard reference material was gravimetrically prepared in a suspension and deposited onto 37 mm mixed cellulose ester air filters at five different levels between 0.5 μg and 25 μg of Be (as BeO). Sample sets consisting of five BeO-spiked filters (in duplicate) and two blank filters, for a total of twelve unique air filter samples per set, were submitted as blind samples to each of 27 participating laboratories. Participants were instructed to follow their current process for sample preparation and utilize their normal analytical methods for processing samples containing substances of this nature. Laboratories using more than one sample preparation and analysis method were provided with more than one sample set. Results from 34 data sets ultimately received from the 27 volunteer laboratories were subjected to applicable statistical analyses. The observed performance data show that sample preparations using nitric acid alone, or combinations of nitric and hydrochloric acids, are not effective for complete extraction of Be from the SRM 1877 refractory BeO particulate matter spiked on air filters; but that effective recovery can be achieved by using sample preparation procedures utilizing either sulfuric or hydrofluoric acid, or by using methodologies involving ammonium bifluoride with heating. Laboratories responsible for quantitative determination of Be in workplace samples that may contain high-fired BeO should use quality assurance schemes that include BeO-spiked sampling media, rather than solely media spiked with soluble Be compounds, and should ensure that methods capable of quantitative digestion of Be from the actual material present are used.     

The Impacts of Different Meteorology Data Sets on Nitrogen Fate and Transport in the SWAT Watershed Model

In this study, we investigated how different meteorology data sets impacts nitrogen fate and transport responses in the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model. We used two meteorology data sets: National Climatic Data Center (observed) and Mesoscale Model 5/Weather Research and Forecasting (simulated). The SWAT model was applied to two 10-digit hydrologic unit code watersheds in the Coastal Plain and Piedmont zones of North Carolina. Nitrogen cycling and loading response to these meteorological data were investigated by exploring 19 SWAT nitrogen outputs relating to landscape delivery, biogeochemical assimilation, and atmospheric deposition. The largest difference in model output using both meteorology data sets was for large loads/fluxes. Landscape delivery outputs (e.g., NO^? ₃ watershed discharge, groundwater NO^? ₃ flux, soil NO^? ₃ percolation) showed the largest difference across all values. Use of the two weather data sources resulted in a nearly twofold difference in NO^? ₃ watershed discharge and groundwater NO^? ₃ flux. Differences for many nitrogen outputs were greater than those for sub-basin flow. Nitrogen outputs showed the greatest difference for agricultural land covers and there was no flow-related pattern in output differences across sub-basins or over time (years). In general, nitrogen parameter models that had a greater number of nitrate concentration, flow, and temperature terms (equation variables) in each transport model showed the greatest difference between both meteorology applications.     

Potential Impact of Clean Air Act Regulations on Nitrogen Fate and Transport in the Neuse River Basin: a Modeling Investigation Using CMAQ and SWAT

There has been extensive analysis of Clean Air Act Amendment (CAAA) regulation impacts to changes in atmospheric nitrogen deposition; however, few studies have focused on watershed nitrogen transfer particularly regarding long-term predictions. In this study, we investigated impacts of CAAA NOx emissions on the fate and transport of nitrogen for two watersheds in the Neuse River Basin. We applied the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) using simulated deposition rates from the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model. Two scenarios were investigated: one that considered CAAA emission controls in CMAQ simulation (with) and a second that did not (without). By 2020, results showed a 70 % drop in nitrogen discharge for the Little River watershed and a 50 % drop for the Nahunta watershed from 1990 levels under the with-CAAA scenario. Denitrification and plant nitrogen uptake played important roles in nitrogen discharge from each watershed. Nitrogen watershed response time to a change in atmospheric nitrogen deposition was 4 years for Nahunta and 2 years for Little River. We attribute these differences in nitrogen response time to contrasts in agricultural land use and diversity of crop types. Soybean, hay, and corn land covers had comparatively longer response times to changes in atmospheric deposition. The studied watersheds demonstrate relatively large nitrogen retention: ≥80 % of all delivered nitrogen.     

Montane Meadows as Indicators of Environmental Change

We used a time series of satellite multispectral imagery for mapping and monitoring six classes of montane meadows arrayed along a moisture gradient (from hydric to mesic to xeric). We hypothesized that mesic meadows would support the highest species diversity of plants, birds, and butterflies because they are more moderate environments. We also hypothesized that mesic meadows would exhibit the greatest seasonal and interannual variability in spectral response across years. Field sampling in each of the meadow types was conducted for plants, birds, and butterflies in 1997 and 1998. Mesic meadows supported the highest plant species diversity, but there was no significant difference in bird or butterfly species diversity among meadow types. These data show that it may be easier to detect significant differences in more species rich taxa (e.g., plants) than taxa that are represented by fewer species (e.g., butterflies and birds). Mesic meadows also showed the greatest seasonal and interannual variability in spectral response. Given the rich biodiversity of mesic montane meadows and their sensitivity to variations in temperature and moisture, they may be important to monitor in the context of environmental change     

Quantitative arsenic speciation in two species of earthworms from a former mine site

The relationship between the total arsenic concentration and the chemical speciation of arsenic in two species of earthworm (Lumbricus rubellus and Dendrodrilus rubidus) in relation to the host soil, was investigated for 13 sites of varying arsenic content, including a background level garden soil and a former mine site at the Devon Great Consols, UK. Earthworms were collected with the host soil (As soil concentration range 16-12, 466 mg kg(-1) dry weight) and measured for their total arsenic (concentration range 7-595 mg kg(-1) dry weight) using inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry (ICP-MS). A methanol-water mixture was used to extract arsenic species from the earthworms prior to determination of the individual arsenic species by a combination of anion and cation exchange high performance liquid chromatography coupled to inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry (HPLC-ICP-MS). A gradient elution anion exchange method is presented whereby nine arsenic species could be measured in one sample injection. Arsenic species were identified by comparison of retention times and sample spiking with known standards and a fully characterised seaweed extract. Arsenic was generally present in the earthworm as arsenate (As(V)) or arsenite (As(III)) and arsenobetaine (AB). Methylarsonate (MA), dimethylarsinate (DMA) and three arsenosugars (glycerol, phosphate, sulfate) were present as minor constituents. These results are discussed in relation to the mechanisms for coping with exposure to soil bound arsenic.     

A comparison of speciated atmospheric mercury at an urban center and an upwind rural location

Gaseous elemental mercury (GEM), particulate mercury (PHg) and reactive gaseous mercury (RGM) were measured every other hour at a rural location in south central Wisconsin (Devil's Lake State Park, WI, USA) between April 2003 and March 2004, and at a predominantly downwind urban site in southeastern Wisconsin (Milwaukee, WI, USA) between June 2004 and May 2005. Annual averages of GEM, PHg, and RGM at the urban site were statistically higher than those measured at the rural site. Pollution roses of GEM and reactive mercury (RM; sum of PHg and RGM) at the rural and urban sites revealed the influences of point source emissions in surrounding counties that were consistent with the US EPA 1999 National Emission Inventory and the 2003-2005 US EPA Toxics Release Inventory. Source-receptor relationships at both sites were studied by quantifying the impacts of point sources on mercury concentrations. Time series of GEM, PHg, and RGM concentrations were sorted into two categories; time periods dominated by impacts from point sources, and time periods dominated by mercury from non-point sources. The analysis revealed average point source contributions to GEM, PHg, and RGM concentration measurements to be significant over the year long studies. At the rural site, contributions to annual average concentrations were: GEM (2%; 0.04 ng m(-3)); and, RM (48%; 5.7 pg m(-3)). At the urban site, contributions to annual average concentrations were: GEM (33%; 0.81 ng m(-3)); and, RM (64%; 13.8 pg m(-3)).     

Preferential sorption of some natural organic matter fractions to titanium dioxide nanoparticles: influence of pH and ionic strength

Natural organic matter (NOM) sorption to nanoparticles (NPs) can influence their transport and bioavailability in the aquatic environment. The sorption affinity of NOM to surfaces including NPs is size dependent, and depending on environmental conditions, NOM may enhance or mitigate NPs toxicity. The aim of this study was to investigate the preferential sorption of different-sized fractions of NOM to titanium dioxide (TiO₂) NPs. We specifically investigated the influence of pH, ionic strength, and NOM concentration on the extent of this preferential sorption using a constant sorbent concentration (400 mg/L TiO₂ NPs). Additionally, sorption of NOM to TiO₂ NPs at varying pH was investigated. The nonsorbed NOM was separated from the sorbed, by 50 nm polycarbonate membrane filters and ultracentrifugation. High-performance size exclusion chromatography (HPSEC) was used to determine the average molecular weights of NOM (MWw). Corroborative evidence of preferential sorption of different-sized molecular weight fractions of NOM was obtained from optical techniques such as absorbance and fluorescence spectrophotometry. The total organic carbon was measured by the Total Organic Carbon Analyzer—Shimadzu (TOC-VCPH). The results indicated that there is preferential sorption of larger sized fractions of NOM to TiO₂ NPs irrespective of NOM concentration. It was observed that the sorption of larger sized fractions of NOM was much enhanced at lower pH and at higher ionic strength. Both absorbance and fluorescence spectrophotometric techniques gave credible corroborative evidence on the extent of preferential sorption of lager sized fractions of NOM with respect to pH and ionic strength. The sorption results demonstrated higher sorption at lower pH than at higher pH. Overall, the results of this study suggest that the environmental conditions are key factors that can contribute to NOM’s fractional preferential sorption to NPs in the aquatic environment.     

The drivers of risk to water security in Shanghai

Big cities are often said to have big water problems, and Shanghai is no exception. In this paper, we examine and compare the influence of the major factors that give rise to the risk of water insecurity in Shanghai. There is an extensive and diverse literature on these issues, dealt with in isolation, and here, we provide a synthesis of the literature, together with our own assessments and calculations, to assess what are the risks to Shanghai’s water supply and what is our degree of confidence in this assessment. We describe the systems that supply water to the city, and past and future changes in the systems, including changes in the glaciers that supply some water to the river, changes in climate, changes in land use, the construction of dams, and water diversions. We show how, at the same time as Shanghai is increasing its dependence on the Yangtze river, water diversions and sea level rise are increasing the risk that this water will be too saline to consume at certain times of the year. This analysis suggests that most of the major drivers of the risk to water security in Shanghai are within the power of environmental managers to control.