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691.
The recent economic meltdown worldwide has reinforced our understanding of the effects of decoupling economic growth, monetary policy, and resources. Concern for peak oil and suggestions that it may have contributed to the global economic woes as well as over concern for the banking fraud may be adding confusion over the underlying causes and sending a misleading message to the public and ultimately to policy makers. Viewing the economy as simply a circulation of money that can be manipulated to increase spending and therefore consume our way out of the current economic situation, is courting disaster by deluding the public that the solution lies in simple adjustments to the current monetary system. Similarly, emphasizing that energy is the problem and that the solution can be found with another energy source is probably counterproductive in the short run and may be disastrous in the long run. The recent nuclear accident in Japan seriously calls into question increased dependence on nuclear energy and renewable energy sources, in the majority, have low net yields and are unevenly distributed worldwide.In this paper we frame the economic system as a subsystem of the larger more encompassing geobiosphere and suggest that within this context, neoclassical economics is unlikely to provide sufficient explanation of the recent economic melt-down. From a biophysical perspective, increasing the amount or speed of money circulation as well as extracting more energy from whatever source is available will only compound the problems and relying on growth as the solution to what ails the global economy is not a desirable nor a tenable solution. 相似文献
692.
Jones-Farrand DT Fearer TM Thogmartin WE Thompson FR Nelson MD Tirpak JM 《Ecological applications》2011,21(6):2269-2282
Selection of a modeling approach is an important step in the conservation planning process, but little guidance is available. We compared two statistical and three theoretical habitat modeling approaches representing those currently being used for avian conservation planning at landscape and regional scales: hierarchical spatial count (HSC), classification and regression tree (CRT), habitat suitability index (HSI), forest structure database (FS), and habitat association database (HA). We focused our comparison on models for five priority forest-breeding species in the Central Hardwoods Bird Conservation Region: Acadian Flycatcher, Cerulean Warbler, Prairie Warbler, Red-headed Woodpecker, and Worm-eating Warbler. Lacking complete knowledge on the distribution and abundance of each species with which we could illuminate differences between approaches and provide strong grounds for recommending one approach over another, we used two approaches to compare models: rank correlations among model outputs and comparison of spatial correspondence. In general, rank correlations were significantly positive among models for each species, indicating general agreement among the models. Worm-eating Warblers had the highest pairwise correlations, all of which were significant (P < 0.05). Red-headed Woodpeckers had the lowest agreement among models, suggesting greater uncertainty in the relative conservation value of areas within the region. We assessed model uncertainty by mapping the spatial congruence in priorities (i.e., top ranks) resulting from each model for each species and calculating the coefficient of variation across model ranks for each location. This allowed identification of areas more likely to be good targets of conservation effort for a species, those areas that were least likely, and those in between where uncertainty is higher and thus conservation action incorporates more risk. Based on our results, models developed independently for the same purpose (conservation planning for a particular species in a particular geography) yield different answers and thus different conservation strategies. We assert that using only one habitat model (even if validated) as the foundation of a conservation plan is risky. Using multiple models (i.e., ensemble prediction) can reduce uncertainty and increase efficacy of conservation action when models corroborate one another and increase understanding of the system when they do not. 相似文献
693.
Nur N Jahncke J Herzog MP Howar J Hyrenbach KD Zamon JE Ainley DG Wiens JA Morgan K Ballance LT Stralberg D 《Ecological applications》2011,21(6):2241-2257
Marine protected areas (MPAs) provide an important tool for conservation of marine ecosystems. To be most effective, these areas should be strategically located in a manner that supports ecosystem function. To inform marine spatial planning and support strategic establishment of MPAs within the California Current System, we identified areas predicted to support multispecies aggregations of seabirds ("hotspots"). We developed habitat-association models for 16 species using information from at-sea observations collected over an 11-year period (1997-2008), bathymetric data, and remotely sensed oceanographic data for an area from north of Vancouver Island, Canada, to the USA/Mexico border and seaward 600 km from the coast. This approach enabled us to predict distribution and abundance of seabirds even in areas of few or no surveys. We developed single-species predictive models using a machine-learning algorithm: bagged decision trees. Single-species predictions were then combined to identify potential hotspots of seabird aggregation, using three criteria: (1) overall abundance among species, (2) importance of specific areas ("core areas") to individual species, and (3) predicted persistence of hotspots across years. Model predictions were applied to the entire California Current for four seasons (represented by February, May, July, and October) in each of 11 years. Overall, bathymetric variables were often important predictive variables, whereas oceanographic variables derived from remotely sensed data were generally less important. Predicted hotspots often aligned with currently protected areas (e.g., National Marine Sanctuaries), but we also identified potential hotspots in Northern California/Southern Oregon (from Cape Mendocino to Heceta Bank), Southern California (adjacent to the Channel Islands), and adjacent to Vancouver Island, British Columbia, that are not currently included in protected areas. Prioritization and identification of multispecies hotspots will depend on which group of species is of highest management priority. Modeling hotspots at a broad spatial scale can contribute to MPA site selection, particularly if complemented by fine-scale information for focal areas. 相似文献
694.
A teacher of ours used to say, “Like ice in a fire, something for nothing you will never acquire”, which is a poetic equivalent of “there is no such a thing as a free lunch”. Human economies are dependent on high quality fossil fuels and will likely continue depending on them for some time to come. Value of a resource is not only what one pays for it, or what can be extracted from it, but also value can be attributed to the “effort” required in its production. In this analysis we apply the emergy synthesis method to evaluate the work invested by the geobiosphere to generate the global storages of fossil energy resources. The upgrading of raw resources to secondary fuels is also evaluated. The analysis relies on published estimates of historic, global net primary production (NPP) on land and oceans, published preservation and conversion factors of organic matter, and assessments of the present total global storages of coal, petroleum, and natural gas. Results show that the production of coal resources over geologic time required between 6.63E4 (±0.51E4) seJ/J and 9.71E4 (±0.79E4) seJ/J, while, oil and natural gas resources required about 1.48E5 (±0.07 E5) seJ/J and 1.70E5 (±0.06E5) seJ/J, respectively. These values are between 1.5 and 2.5 times larger than previous estimates and acknowledge a far greater power of fossil fuels in driving and shaping modern society. 相似文献
695.
Gregory Z. Bedny Waldemar Karwowski Mark H. Seglin 《International journal of occupational safety and ergonomics》2013,19(2):121-133
This paper describes a hear-rate methodology to determine the cost-effectiveness of an ergonomics intervention to reduce workload and improve working conditions. This is a practical approach as opposed to the energy expenditure technique that is difficult to implement in natural settings. This was a laboratory study using a large excavator cabin with devices to simulate excavation operations. Mean heart rate was used to calculate the required rest time during a shift with or without air-conditioning. The criterion for evaluation was differences in required rest time during a shift under these 2 conditions. The simplicity and objectivity of this approach invites use to solve the problem of the economic evaluation of ergonomics interventions. 相似文献
696.
Stephen S. Hale Melville P. Coté Jr. Mark A. Tedesco Renee Searfoss 《Environmental management》2013,51(4):862-873
Continuing pressures from human activities have harmed the health of ocean ecosystems, particularly those near the coast. Current management practices that operate on one sector at a time have not resulted in healthy oceans that can sustainably provide the ecosystem services humans want and need. Now, adoption of ecosystem-based management (EBM) and coastal and marine spatial planning (CMSP) as foundational principles for ocean management in the United States should result in a more holistic approach. Recent marine biogeographical studies and benthic habitat mapping using satellite imagery, large-scale monitoring programs, ocean observation systems, acoustic and video techniques, landscape ecology, geographic information systems, integrated databases, and ecological modeling provide information that can support EBM, make CMSP ecologically meaningful, and contribute to planning for marine biodiversity conservation. Examples from coastal waters along the northeast coast of the United States from Delaware Bay to Passamaquoddy Bay, Maine, illustrate how benthic biogeography and bottom seascape diversity information is a useful lens through which to view EBM and CMSP in nearshore waters. The focus is on benthic communities, which are widely used in monitoring programs and are sensitive to many stresses from human activities. 相似文献
697.
Jennifer Steffen Mark Jensen Christine A. Pomeroy Steven J. Burian 《Journal of the American Water Resources Association》2013,49(4):810-824
This article presents an analysis of the projected performance of urban residential rainwater harvesting systems in the United States (U.S.). The objectives are to quantify for 23 cities in seven climatic regions (1) water supply provided from rainwater harvested at a residential parcel and (2) stormwater runoff reduction from a residential drainage catchment. Water‐saving efficiency is determined using a water‐balance approach applied at a daily time step for a range of rainwater cistern sizes. The results show that performance is a function of cistern size and climatic pattern. A single rain barrel (190 l [50 gal]) installed at a residential parcel is able to provide approximately 50% water‐saving efficiency for the nonpotable indoor water demand scenario in cities of the East Coast, Southeast, Midwest, and Pacific Northwest, but <30% water‐saving efficiency in cities of the Mountain West, Southwest, and most of California. Stormwater management benefits are quantified using the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Storm Water Management Model. The results indicate that rainwater harvesting can reduce stormwater runoff volume up to 20% in semiarid regions, and less in regions receiving greater rainfall amounts for a long‐term simulation. Overall, the results suggest that U.S. cities and individual residents can benefit from implementing rainwater harvesting as a stormwater control measure and as an alternative source of water. 相似文献
698.
Carl F. Cerco Mark R. Noel 《Journal of the American Water Resources Association》2013,49(5):1119-1133
The CE‐QUAL‐ICM (Corps of Engineers Integrated Compartment Water Quality Model) eutrophication model was applied in a 21‐year simulation of Chesapeake Bay water quality, 1985‐2005. The eutrophication model is part of a larger model package and is forced, in part, by models of atmospheric deposition, watershed flows and loads, and hydrodynamics. Results from the model are compared with observations in multiple formats including time series plots, cumulative distribution plots, and statistical summaries. The model indicates only one long‐term trend in computed water quality: light attenuation deteriorates circa 1993 through the end of the simulation. The most significant result is the influence of physical processes, notably stratification and associated effects (e.g., anoxic volume), on computed water quality. Within the application period, physical effects are more important determinants of year‐to‐year variability in computed water quality than external loads. 相似文献
699.
This paper examines the ability of civil society actors to champion environmental justice in an industrial risk society in South Africa by way of mobilisation and protest action. This paper presents viewpoints from key stakeholders at the Durban city level and three local case study sites to examine social capital relations to achieve environmental justice. It explores how civil society engages in social capital for mobilisation with itself and subsequent protest actions to engage with government and industry. The paper highlights that social actor response to engage in social capital for mobilisation and protests is best understood in relation to the socio-economic and political positioning of individuals or organisations. 相似文献
700.
John R. Skalski Mark A. Weiland Gene R. Ploskey Christa M. Woodley M. Brad Eppard Gary E. Johnson Thomas J. Carlson Richard L. Townsend 《The Environmentalist》2016,36(4):404-420
An elaborate set of criteria have been developed by fish managers and regulators to assure the accuracy, precision, representativeness, and robustness of survival compliance studies coordinated within the Federal Columbia River Power System in the northwestern USA. Dam passage survival, defined as survival from the dam face to the tailrace mixing zone, must be ≥96 % for spring out migrating juvenile salmonids [i.e., yearling Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) and steelhead (O. mykiss)] and ≥93 % for summer outmigrants (i.e., subyearling Chinook salmon). Survival must be estimated with a standard error ≤1.5 %. However, these quantitative benchmarks are only part of a multifaceted set of criteria, including representative dam operations, river discharge levels, and fish selection, along with tests of model validity that must be satisfied. These criteria are illustrated using acoustic-tag survival compliance studies conducted at The Dalles Dam on the Columbia River, 2010–2012. The results suggest evaluation criteria for survival compliance tests must balance the needs for rigor and robustness with the ability to reasonably perform the tests in naturally varying riverine systems. 相似文献